Chaos induced coherence in two independent food chains

Coherence evolution of two food web models can be obtained under the stirring effect of chaotic advection. Each food web model sustains a three--level trophic system composed of interacting predators, consumers and vegetation. These populations compete for a common limiting resource in open flows with chaotic advection dynamics. Here we show that two species (the top--predators) of different colonies chaotically advected by a jet--like flow can synchronize their evolution even without migration interaction. The evolution is charaterized as a phase synchronization. The phase differences (determined through the Hilbert transform) of the variables representing those species show a coherent evolution.Comment: 5 pages, 5 eps figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

531 s.

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Ecological Invasion, Roughened Fronts, and a Competitor's Extreme Advance: Integrating Stochastic Spatial-Growth Models

Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a "roughened" front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner's relative position. That is, we analyze the location of the most advanced invader as the extreme deviation about the front's mean position. We find that a class of models with different assumptions about neighborhood interactions exhibit universal characteristics. That is, key features of the invasion dynamics span a class of models, independently of locally detailed demographic rules. Our results integrate theories of invasive spatial growth and generate novel hypotheses linking habitat or landscape size (length of the invading front) to invasion velocity, and to the relative position of the most advanced invader.Comment: The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com/content/8528v8563r7u2742

Mate-Finding as an Overlooked Critical Determinant of Dispersal Variation in Sexually-Reproducing Animals

Dispersal is a critically important process in ecology, but robust predictive models of animal dispersal remain elusive. We identify a potentially ubiquitous component of variation in animal dispersal that has been largely overlooked until now: the influence of mate encounters on settlement probability. We use an individual-based model to simulate dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms that follow a simple set of movement rules based on conspecific encounters, within an environment lacking spatial habitat heterogeneity. We show that dispersal distances vary dramatically with fluctuations in population density in such a model, even in the absence of variation in dispersive traits between individuals. In a simple random-walk model with promiscuous mating, dispersal distributions become increasingly ‘fat-tailed’ at low population densities due to the increasing scarcity of mates. Similar variation arises in models incorporating territoriality. In a model with polygynous mating, we show that patterns of sex-biased dispersal can even be reversed across a gradient of population density, despite underlying dispersal mechanisms remaining unchanged. We show that some widespread dispersal patterns found in nature (e.g. fat tailed distributions) can arise as a result of demographic variability in the absence of heterogeneity in dispersive traits across the population. This implies that models in which individual dispersal distances are considered to be fixed traits might be unrealistic, as dispersal distances vary widely under a single dispersal mechanism when settlement is influenced by mate encounters. Mechanistic models offer a promising means of advancing our understanding of dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms

Water safety plans and climate change mitigation

[Excerpt] Definition Quality water at affordable prices for all is a key condition for the promotion of public health, environmental sustainability, and quality and safety of life. In a context of growing external uncertainties arising from changes in the climate and the environment, ensuring these conditions is an upward concern and is of utmost relevance to increase scientific research on the impacts of climate change on water quality modification and in minimization/mitigation strategies

Combined use of bacteriophage K and a novel bacteriophage to reduce Staphylococcus aureus biofilm formation

Biofilms are major causes of impairment of wound healing and patient morbidity. One of the most common and aggressive wound pathogens is Staphylococcus aureus, displaying a large repertoire of virulence factors and commonly reduced susceptibility to antibiotics, such as the spread of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). Bacteriophages are obligate parasites of bacteria. They multiply intracellularly and lyse their bacterial host, releasing their progeny. We isolated a novel phage, DRA88, which has a broad host range among S. aureus bacteria. Morphologically, the phage belongs to the Myoviridae family and comprises a large double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) genome of 141,907 bp. DRA88 was mixed with phage K to produce a high-titer mixture that showed strong lytic activity against a wide range of S. aureus isolates, including representatives of the major international MRSA clones and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus. Its efficacy was assessed both in planktonic cultures and when treating established biofilms produced by three different biofilm-producing S. aureus isolates. A significant reduction of biofilm biomass over 48 h of treatment was recorded in all cases. The phage mixture may form the basis of an effective treatment for infections caused by S. aureus biofilms

The Impact of Social Transfers in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the impact of social transfers in seven Central and Eastern European countries using 16 datasets provided by the Luxembourg Income Study (Czech Republic 1992, 1996; Estonia 2000; Hungary 1991, 1994, 1999; Poland 1986, 1992, 1995, 1999; Romania 1995, 1997, Slovakia 1992, 1996; Slovenia 1997, 1999). The principal objective is (a) to provide an overview of the development of social inequality in Central and Eastern Europe; and (b) to quantify the change of poverty rates among the total population and among targeted groups (unemployment compensation, means-tested and family benefits beneficiaries) before and after transfers. The results of this paper show that although the access to these benefits is no guarantee for leaving poverty, social transfers significantly improve the economic conditions of families in need. Without the existence of these types of provisions, Central and Eastern European societies would not only be more unequal societies, but would be also more atomised and disaggregated societies. In the long run, this might seriously damage further reforms or the democratisation process itself

Potential pathways of invasion and dispersal of Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz 1865 in the Baltic Sea

The rapid spread of Mnemiopsis leidyi across the entire Baltic Sea after its first observation in 2006 gave rise to the question of its invasion pathway and the possible vector of its transport. To investigate pathways of M. leidyi invasion, the years 2005–2008 have been simulated by a three-dimensional coupled sea ice-ocean model of the Baltic Sea. In addition, a Lagrangian particle-tracking model has been utilized to test possible transport routes of this invader for 2006/2007. Based on the model, we exclude advection from the Kattegat as the main area of origin of M. leidyi and further spreading through the entire Baltic Sea. To explain the dispersion of M. leidyi in 2007 an earlier invasion already in 2005 is most probable. Alternatively, an invasion originating from main harbors with high ship traffic could also be a potential pathway. Drift simulations with drifter release in the main harbors are in good agreement with the observed distribution pattern of M. leidyi