Econometric models for forecasting of macroeconomic indices

The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices development in the past and their cause and effect interrelations. The aim of the article is to build econometric models for macroeconomic indices forecasting, reflecting Russia’s economy stabilization processes. In the process of research econometric modeling methods were used which allow to build, estimate and control the quality of various econometric models. In the given research the following models were built and analyzed: autoregressive integrated moving average model, vector auto-regression model, simultaneous equations system; the comparison of forecast possibilities and forecast accuracy of models built; forecast values of considered macroeconomic indices for the next periods were received. As to the results of study some preference can be given to forecasting on the basis of autoregressive models. The materials of the article can be quite useful for researchers, dealing with problems of modeling and economic processes forecasting, both in their scientific and practical activity. © 2016 Sukhanova, Shirnaeva and Mokronosov

Особенности и последствия импортозамещения в России

The article discusses the features of the import substitution policy and reveals both positive and negative effects on food self-sufficiency of the population of Russia in the sanctions period. The study identified the direct effect of economic sanctions and imposed embargoes (loss of income, rise in prices for food products, reduction in the food basket), as well as the attitude of the population to the policy of food import substitution. The results of the sociological survey in the form of a volunteer survey of the population on the example of a particular region by the method of handout questionnaire are presented. It is concluded that a reorientation to the consumption of domestic food items occurred in the region while reducing the consumption of certain food items.El artículo analiza las características de la política de sustitución de importaciones e identifica consecuencias positivas y negativas para la autosuficiencia alimentaria de la población Rusa durante el período de las sanciones. El estudio reveló el impacto directo de las sanciones económicas y los embargos (pérdida de ingresos, aumento de los precios de los alimentos, reducción de la canasta de alimentos), así como las actitudes públicas hacia la política de sustitución de importaciones de alimentos. Presenta los resultados de una encuesta sociológica en forma de una encuesta voluntaria a la población sobre el ejemplo de una región específica por el método de distribución de cuestionarios. Se concluye que la región se ha desplazado al consumo de alimentos domésticos al tiempo que reduce el consumo de ciertos alimentos.В статье рассматриваются особенности политики импортозамещения и выявляются как положительные, так и отрицательные последствия для продовольственной самообеспеченности населения России в период санкций. В исследовании было выявлено прямое влияние экономических санкций и введенных эмбарго (потеря доходов, рост цен на продукты питания, сокращение продовольственной корзины), а также отношение населения к политике импортозамещения продовольствия. Представлены результаты социологического опроса в виде волонтерского опроса населения на примере конкретного региона методом раздаточного анкетирования. Сделан вывод о том, что в регионе произошла переориентация на потребление внутренних продуктов питания при одновременном сокращении потребления определенных продуктов питания

Student readiness formation for activities oriented to health saving

The relevance of the studied problem is caused by the need of formation and development among students of educational organizations of the personal qualities directed to updating of their potential concerning preservation and promotion of health, organization of own style of a healthy lifestyle, i.e. formation of readiness for healthoriented activity - HOA. The purpose of the article consists in the development of conceptual aspects of readiness formation of students for HOA. The leading methodological approach to the research of this problem is a personal and activity approaches, allowing us to disclose the features of organization of an educational process directed to readiness formation of students for HOA. Conceptual aspects of students’ readiness formation for HOA conclude in the fact that health is considered as a target resource of a person which can be operated; the basis of this resource is the health saving potential of the person, its components and phases of development are presented; the model of student readiness for HOA is developed. Materials of the article can be useful to pedagogical workers regarding the organization of activities for preservation and promotion of student health in educational organizations, by means of change of intrinsic and substantial components of this activity. © 2016 Tretyakova et al

Eritrocytic Parameters of the Blood of Calves with Different Birth Weights

In the conditions of a dairy farm with the help of the standard clinical, instrumental and laboratory methods the research on particularities of Eritrocytic parameters of the blood of calves (n=299) with different birth weights was carried out. It is shown that Holstein calves with normal intrauterine growth, born with body weight from 36.5 to 29 kg, have no reliable differences in red blood cell count. With a 1 kg reduction in body weight, there is a trend towards hyperchromia, but an increase in weight deficiency promotes of hypovolemia, hypochromia, and polycythaemia. In newborns with a body weight of 27.9–26.9 kg, polycythaemia is derived from hypovolemia, but, with a more pronounced weight deficiency, the role of erythrogenesis disorder in the pathogenesis of the syndrome increases. Hypochromia is a consequence of hematopoietic organs dysfunction and transmembrane loss of hemoglobin. Herein membrane destruction is caused by the increase in the content of toxical metabolites in the blood (sorptivity of red blood cells by 10–12 percent), and by a higher level of adrenaline (modification coefficient of membranes by adrenaline by 20–30 %). This indicates that the response of the fetus to the factors that inhibit its development is similar to a metabolic response against stress. At strong underweight body (b.w. less than 25 kg) exhausting of adaptive capability is observed with the increase in the blood level of toxical metabolites (sorptivity of red blood cells by 15 %), level of membrane destruction (level of ectoglobular hemoglobin in 2,8 times), and heterogeneity of red blood cells. Thus, in newborns with a body weight of less than 29 kg, the significant disturbances in the structure and functions of red blood cells were revealed, which gave grounds for stating that they had antenatal hypotrophy. Herewith, the severity of hematological changes depends on the degree of weight deficiency. Initially, it is hypovolemia and the resulting polycythemia, but, erythropoiesis disorders, and destruction of their membranes with increased polycythemia, and the development of hypochromia occur with the increasing severity of hypotrophy

Influence of the participatory budgeting on the infrastructural development of the territories in the Russian federation

The relevance of the investigated problem is caused by the need for the advancing of participatory budgeting practice in the Russian Federation. Due to insufficient development of theoretical, scientific, and methodological aspects of the participatory budgeting, very few territories in the Russian Federation use this tool effectively. The most important issue to be addressed is increasing the effectiveness of involving of local communities in the process of the rational allocation of budgetary funds. The objective of this paper is to study how participatory budgeting influences the potential of infrastructural development of territories in the Russian Federation. The leading methods of investigation of the problem include analyzing the common practices in certain regions and specifying the different categories of participatory budgeting. Using these methods, the authors consider the participatory budgeting as a process of allocating the budget funds to address the primary local problems, which leads to improving territorial infrastructure development. The results of the given research include updated conceptual basis of participatory budgeting; indicators reflecting the influence of the participatory budgeting on infrastructural development and criteria for its implementation in the municipalities; organizational chart clarifying the methodological aspects of different types of the participatory budgeting; and classification of territorial development mechanisms based on the participatory budgeting models of financing municipal projects. The practical significance of the given research is focused on the development of the practice of the relevant projects financing through the participatory budgeting in the Russian regions by systematizing their conceptual frameworks. Results of the study can be used by regional and municipal authorities to improve the relevant legislation, and by representatives of local communities to increase their participation in the budgeting process. © 2016 Tsurkan et al

Glycyrrhetinic acid and its derivatives as inhibitors of poly(ADP-ribose)polymerases 1 and 2, apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease 1 and DNA polymerase β

Aim. For strengthening the efficiency of monofunctional alkylating antineoplastic drugs it is important to lower the capacity of base excision repair (BER) system which corrects the majority of DNA damages caused by these reagents. The objective was to create inhibitors of the key BER enzymes (PARP1, PARP2, DNA polymerase β, and APE1) by the directed modification of glycyrrhetinic acid (GA). Methods. Amides of GA were produced from the GA acetate by formation of the corresponding acyl chloride, amidation with the appropriate amine and subsequent deacylation. Small library of 2-cyano substituted derivatives of GA methyl esters was obtained by the structural modification of GA framework and carboxylic acid group. The inhibitory capacity of the compounds was estimated by comparison of the enzyme activities in specific tests in the presence of compounds versus their absence. Results. None of tested compounds inhibits PARP1 significantly. Unmodified GA and its morpholinic derivative were shown to be weak inhibitors of PARP2. The derivatives of GA containing keto-group in 11 triterpene framework were shown to be moderate inhibitors of pol β. Compound 3, containing 12-oxo-9(11)-en moiety in the ring C, was shown to be a single inhibitor of APE1 among all compounds studied. Conclusions. The class of GA derivatives, selective pol β inhibitors, was found out. The selective inhibitor of APE1 and weak selective inhibitor of PARP2 were also revealed

Comparative cytogenetics of anembryonic pregnancies and missed abortions in human

Miscarriage is an important problem in human reproduction, affecting 10–15 % of clinically recognized pregnancies. The cases of embryonic death can be divided into missed abortion (MA), for which the ultrasound sign of the embryo death is the absence of cardiac activity, and anembryonic pregnancy (AP) without an embryo in the gestational sac. The aim of this study was to compare the frequency of chromosomal abnormalities in extraembryonic tissues detected by conventional cytogenetic analysis of spontaneous abortions depending on the presence or absence of an embryo. This is a retrospective study of 1551 spontaneous abortions analyzed using GTG-banding from 1990 to 2022 (266 cases of AP and 1285 cases of MA). A comparative analysis of the frequency of chromosomal abnormalities and the distribution of karyotype frequencies depending on the presence of an embryo in the gestational sac was carried out. Statistical analysis was performed using a chi-square test with a p < 0.05 significance level. The total frequency of chromosomal abnormalities in the study was 53.6 % (832/1551). The proportion of abnormal karyotypes in the AP and MA groups did not differ significantly and amounted to 57.1 % (152/266) and 52.9 % (680/1285) for AP and MA, respectively (p = 0.209). Sex chromosome aneuploidies and triploidies were significantly less common in the AP group than in the MA group (2.3 % (6/266) vs 6.8 % (88/1285), p = 0.005 and 4.9 % (13/266) vs 8.9 % (114/1285), p = 0.031, respectively). Tetraploidies were registered more frequently in AP compared to MA (12.4 % (33/266) vs. 8.2 % (106/1285), p = 0.031). The sex ratio among abortions with a normal karyotype was 0.54 and 0.74 for AP and MA, respectively. Thus, although the frequencies of some types of chromosomal pathology differ between AP and MA, the total frequency of chromosomal abnormalities in AP is not increased compared to MA, which indicates the need to search for the causes of AP at other levels of the genome organization, including microstructural chromosomal rearrangements, monogenic mutations, imprinting disorders, and epigenetic abnormalities

Characterization of Multiblock (Segmented) Copolyurethane- Imides and Nanocomposites Based Thereof Using AFM, Nanotribology, and Nanoindentation Methods

This chapter reviews our results on the morphology, tribological, and local mechanical property investigations of new copoly(urethane-imide)s (coPUIs) and nanocomposites based thereof using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and nanoindentation (NI) methods. AFM in the contact mode of lateral forces revealed the presence of different contrast phases on the surface of synthesized films which depends on the chemical structure of monomers used. Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), carbon nanofibers, graphene, tungsten disulfide and tungsten diselenide were introduced into coPUI matrices. Dependencies of microhardness and modulus of elasticity on the depth of indentation have been obtained. It was found that for each synthesized coPUI, there is only one type of carbon nanomaterials that exerts the greatest influence on their characteristics. The improvement of mechanical properties is found to mainly depend on the nature of the polymer matrix and filler. Our results showed that effective methods for improving of tribological characteristics can be either modification by SWCNTs (up to 1 wt.%) or heating at 30°C. Synthesized coPUI films and nanocomposites are very promising materials and can be used as thermoplastic elastomers for tribological applications, and their physical-mechanical properties can be controlled both by temperature and by mechanical action

Polyurethane–poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) semi- IPN–nanooxide composites

Two sets of hybrid polyurethane–poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) semi-interpenetrating polymer network–nanooxide composites with 0.25 or 3 wt% nanosilica or nanoalumina functionalised with OH, NH2 or CHLCH2 groups were prepared. A combination of atomic force microscopy, infrared spectroscopy, thermally stimulated depolarisation current measurement, differential scanning calorimetry and creep rate spectroscopy analysis of the nanostructure and properties of the composites was performed. The pronounced dynamic heterogeneity and the strong impact of oxide additives, basically suppression of the dynamics and temperature-dependent increasing modulus of elasticity, were observed. The effects correlated with either interfacial interactions (for silica) or the nanostructure (for alumina). A low oxide content strongly affected the matrix due to the formation of an unusual cross-linked, via double covalent hybridisation of three components, structure of the nanocomposites