Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment

Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management

Linking Flow Regime, Floodplain Lake Connectivity and Fish Catch in a Large River-Floodplain System, the Volga-Akhtuba Floodplain (Russian Federation)

River-floodplain systems are amongst the most productive—but often severely impacted—aquatic systems worldwide. We explored the ecological response of fish to flow regime in a large river-floodplain system by studying the relationships between (1) discharge and inundated floodplain area, with a focus on spatial and temporal patterns in floodplain lake connectivity, and (2) flood volume and fisheries catch. Our results demonstrate a non-linear relationship between discharge and floodplain inundation with considerable hysteresis due to differences in inundation and drainage rate. Inundation extent was mostly determined by flood volume, not peak discharge. We found that the more isolated lakes (that is, lakes with a shorter connection duration to the river) are located at higher local elevation and at larger hydrological distance from the main rivers: geographical distance to the river appears a poor predictor of lake isolation. Although year-to-year fish catches in the floodplain were significantly larger with larger flood volumes in the floodplain, they were not in the main river, suggesting that mechanisms that increase catch, such as increased floodplain access or increased somatic growth, are stimulated by flooding in the floodplain, but not in the river. Fish species that profit from flooding belong to different feeding guilds, suggesting that all trophic levels may benefit from flooding. We found indications that the ecological functioning of floodplains is not limited to its temporary availability as habitat. Refugia can be present within the floodplain itself, which should be considered in the management of large rivers and their floodplain

Effect analysis of transient scenarios for successful water management strategies

Recent scenario studies on water management focus on one or two projection years and the effects on the water system and functions. The future is however more complex and dynamic. Therefore, we analyse transient scenarios in order to evaluate the performance of water management strategies. Current available simulation tools are not suitable for this purpose. Therefore, we have developed and used a tool to simulate 50-100 year long time series and that is good and fast enough to simulate the effects of these scenarios and strategies on the water system and the interaction with the human system. We present the first step by means of a case study

Flexible Invariants Through Semantic Collaboration

Modular reasoning about class invariants is challenging in the presence of dependencies among collaborating objects that need to maintain global consistency. This paper presents semantic collaboration: a novel methodology to specify and reason about class invariants of sequential object-oriented programs, which models dependencies between collaborating objects by semantic means. Combined with a simple ownership mechanism and useful default schemes, semantic collaboration achieves the flexibility necessary to reason about complicated inter-object dependencies but requires limited annotation burden when applied to standard specification patterns. The methodology is implemented in AutoProof, our program verifier for the Eiffel programming language (but it is applicable to any language supporting some form of representation invariants). An evaluation on several challenge problems proposed in the literature demonstrates that it can handle a variety of idiomatic collaboration patterns, and is more widely applicable than the existing invariant methodologies.Comment: 22 page

Improved and standardized method for assessing years lived with disability after burns and its application to estimate the non-fatal burden of disease of burn injuries in Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands

Background: Burden of disease estimates are an important resource in public health. Currently, robust estimates are not available for the burn population. Our objectives are to adapt a refined methodology (INTEGRIS method) to burns and to apply this new INTEGRIS-burns method to estimate, and compare, the burden of disease of burn injuries in Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands. Methods: Existing European and Western-Australian health-related quality of life (HRQL) datasets were combined to derive disability weights for three homogenous burn injury groups based on percentage total body surface area (%TBSA) burned. Subsequently, incidence data from Australia, New Zealand, and the Netherlands from 2010 to 2017 were used to compute annual non-fatal burden of disease estimates for each of these three countries. Non-fatal burden of disease was measured by years lived with disability (YLD). Results: The combined dataset included 7159 HRQL (EQ-5D-3 L) outcomes from 3401 patients. Disability weights ranged from 0.046 (subgroup  24 months post-burn) to 0.497 (subgroup > 20% TBSA burned 0–1 months post-burn). In 2017 the non-fatal burden of disease of burns for the three countries (YLDs/100,000 inhabitants) was 281 for Australia, 279 for New Zealand and 133 for the Netherlands. Conclusions: This project established a method for more precise estimates of the YLDs of burns, as it is the only method adapted to the nature of burn injuries and their recovery. Compared to previous used methods, the INTEGRIS-burns method includes improved disability weights based on severity categorization of burn patients; a better substantiated proportion of patients with lifelong disability based; and, the application of burn specific recovery timeframes. Information derived from the adapted method can be used as input for health decision making at both the national and international level. Future studies should investigate whether the application is valid in low- and middle- income countries

Childhood tuberculosis infection and disease: A spatial and temporal transmission analysis in a South African township

Background. Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in South Africa. While adult TB results from both recent and past infection, childhood TB results from recent infection and reflects ongoing transmission despite current TB control strategies.Setting. A South African community with high rates of TB and HIV disease.Outcomes. A Geographic Information System was used to spatially and temporally define the relationships between TB exposure, infection and disease in childre

Use of A Collagen/Elastin Matrix As Transport Carrier System to Transfer Proliferating Epidermal Cells to Human Dermis in Vitro

This in vitro study describes a novel cell culture, transport, and transfer protocol that may be highly suitable for delivering cultured proliferating keratinocytes and melanocytes to large open skin wounds (e.g., burns). We have taken into account previous limitations identified using other keratinocyte transfer techniques, such as regulatory issues, stability of keratinocytes during transport (single cell suspensions undergo terminal differentiation), ease of handling during application, and the degree of epidermal blistering resulting after transplantation (both related to transplanting keratinocyte sheets). Large numbers of proliferating epidermal cells (EC) (keratinocytes and melanocytes) were generated within 10-14 days and seeded onto a three-dimensional matrix composed of elastin and collagen types I, III, and V (Matriderm®), which enabled easy and stable transport of the EC for up to 24 h under ambient conditions. All culture conditions were in accordance with the regulations set by the Dutch Central Committee on Research Involving Human Subjects (CCMO). As an in vitro model system for clinical in vivo transfer, the EC were then transferred from Matriderm onto human acellular dermis during a period of 3 days. After transfer the EC maintained the ability to regenerate into a fully differentiated epidermis containing melanocytes on the human dermis. Proliferating keratinocytes were located in the basal layer and keratin-10 expression was located in differentiating suprabasal layers similar to that found in human epidermis. No blistering was observed (separation of the epidermis from the basement membrane). Keratin-6 expression was strongly upregulated in the regenerating epidermis similar to normal wound healing. In summary, we show that EC-Matriderm contains viable, metabolically active keratinocytes and melanocytes cultured in a manner that permits easy transportation and contains epidermal cells with the potential to form a pigmented reconstructed epidermis. This in vitro study has produced a robust protocol that is ready for clinical studies in the future

Формирование и продвижение кредитных продуктов и услуг

Кредитная услуга - одна из составляющих кредитной политики банка. Стремление к максимальному получению прибыли от ее предоставления и увеличению потока клиентов приводит к созданию комплекса (совокупности) услуг, а именно - кредитному продукту. Изучив интересы хозяйствующих субъектов, их потребности, банк может более точно разрабатывать приоритеты кредитной политики во взаимоотношениях с реальным сектором экономики. Обратная зависимость этого фактора - создание конкретного кредитного продукта и построение системы продвижения кредитных услуг, которая призвана осуществлять анализ, диагностику текущей ситуации, обеспечение взаимодействия между банками, нацелить взаимоотношения банка и заемщика на долгосрочную перспективу

Определение оператора поворота вектора в квадриплексном пространстве

Рассмотрен один метод определения оператора поворота вектора в квадриплексном пространстве до совмещения с направлением, заданным другим вектором. Метод базируется на изоморфизме квадриплексных и бикомплексных чисел.Розглянуто один метод визначення оператора повороту вектора в квадриплексному просторі до суміщення з напрямком, який задано іншим вектором. Метод базується на ізоморфізмові квадриплексних та бікомплексних чисел.A method of determination of an operator of vector rotational displacement in quadruplex space before overlapping with a direction given by other vectors is considered. The method is founded on the isomorphism of quadruplex and bicomplex numbers

Indoor Social Networks in a South African Township: Potential Contribution of Location to Tuberculosis Transmission

CITATION: Wood, R. et al. 2012. Indoor social networks in a South African township : potential contribution of location to tuberculosis transmission. PLoS ONE, 7(6): e39246, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0039246.The original publication is available at http://journals.plos.org/plosoneBackground We hypothesized that in South Africa, with a generalized tuberculosis (TB) epidemic, TB infection is predominantly acquired indoors and transmission potential is determined by the number and duration of social contacts made in locations that are conducive to TB transmission. We therefore quantified time spent and contacts met in indoor locations and public transport by residents of a South African township with a very high TB burden. Methods A diary-based community social mixing survey was performed in 2010. Randomly selected participants (n = 571) prospectively recorded numbers of contacts and time spent in specified locations over 24-hour periods. To better characterize age-related social networks, participants were stratified into ten 5-year age strata and locations were classified into 11 types. Results Five location types (own-household, other-households, transport, crèche/school, and work) contributed 97.2% of total indoor time and 80.4% of total indoor contacts. Median time spent indoors was 19.1 hours/day (IQR:14.3–22.7), which was consistent across age strata. Median daily contacts increased from 16 (IQR:9–40) in 0–4 year-olds to 40 (IQR:18–60) in 15–19 year-olds and declined to 18 (IQR:10–41) in ≥45 year-olds. Mean daily own-household contacts was 8.8 (95%CI:8.2–9.4), which decreased with increasing age. Mean crèche/school contacts increased from 6.2/day (95%CI:2.7–9.7) in 0–4 year-olds to 28.1/day (95%CI:8.1–48.1) in 15–19 year-olds. Mean transport contacts increased from 4.9/day (95%CI:1.6–8.2) in 0–4 year-olds to 25.5/day (95%CI:12.1–38.9) in 25–29 year-olds. Conclusions A limited number of location types contributed the majority of indoor social contacts in this community. Increasing numbers of social contacts occurred throughout childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood, predominantly in school and public transport. This rapid increase in non-home socialization parallels the increasing TB infection rates during childhood and young adulthood reported in this community. Further studies of the environmental conditions in schools and public transport, as potentially important locations for ongoing TB infection, are indicated.http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0039246Publisher's versio