BPOP-v1 model: exploring the impact of changes in the biological pump on the shelf sea and ocean nutrient and redox state

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The biological pump of the ocean has changed over Earth's history, from one dominated by prokaryotes to one involving a mixture of prokaryotes and eukaryotes with trophic structure. Changes in the biological pump are in turn hypothesized to have caused important changes in the nutrient and redox properties of the ocean. To explore these hypotheses, we present here a new box model including oxygen (O), phosphorus (P) and a dynamical biological pump. Our Biological Pump, Oxygen and Phosphorus (BPOP) model accounts for two – small and large – organic matter species generated by production and coagulation, respectively. Export and burial of these particles are regulated by a remineralization length (zrem) scheme. We independently vary zrem of small and large particles in order to study how changes in sinking speeds and remineralization rates affect the major biogeochemical fluxes and O and P ocean concentrations. Modeled O and P budgets and fluxes lie reasonably close to present estimates for zrem in the range of currently measured values. Our results highlight that relatively small changes in zrem of the large particles can have important impacts on the O and P ocean availability and support the idea that an early ocean dominated by small particles was nutrient rich due to the inefficient removal of P to sediments. The results also suggest that extremely low oxygen concentrations in the shelf can coexist with an oxygenated deep open ocean for realistic values of zrem, especially for large values of the small-particle zrem. This could challenge conventional interpretations that the Proterozoic deep ocean was anoxic, which are derived from shelf and slope sediment redox data. This simple and computationally inexpensive model is a promising tool to investigate the impact of changes in the organic matter sinking and remineralization rates as well as changes in physical processes coupled with the biological pump in a variety of case studies.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr−1) over the period 2020–2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ∼ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020–2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses

JULES-BE:Representation of bioenergy crops and harvesting in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn5.1

We describe developments to the land surface model JULES, allowing for flexible user-prescribed harvest regimes of various perennial bioenergy crops or natural vegetation types. Our aim is to integrate the most useful aspects of dedicated bioenergy models into dynamic global vegetation models, in order that assessment of bioenergy options can benefit from state-of-the-art Earth system modelling. A new plant functional type (PFT) representing Miscanthus is also presented. The Miscanthus PFT fits well with growth parameters observed at a site in Lincolnshire, UK; however, global observed yields of Miscanthus are far more variable than is captured by the model, primarily owing to the model's lack of representation of crop age and establishment time. Global expansion of bioenergy crop areas under a 2 ?C emissions scenario and balanced greenhouse gas mitigation strategy from the IMAGE integrated assessment model (RCP2.6- SSP2) achieves a mean yield of 4.3 billion tonnes of dry matter per year over 2040-2099, around 30 % higher than the biomass availability projected by IMAGE. In addition to perennial grasses, JULES-BE can also be used to represent short-rotation coppicing, residue harvesting from cropland or forestry and rotation forestry

Contributors to the Summer Issue/Notes

Notes by Louis F. DiGiovanni, E. A. Steffen, Jr., John L. Globensky, Lenton G. Sculthorp, William V. Phelan, and George Ratterman

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening "severe, pervasive and irreversible" impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate "reversibility", the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.

Contributors to the Summer Issue/Notes

Notes by Louis F. DiGiovanni, E. A. Steffen, Jr., John L. Globensky, Lenton G. Sculthorp, William V. Phelan, and George Ratterman

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings

Constructive activism in the dark web: cryptomarkets and illicit drugs in the digital ‘demimonde’

This paper explores activism enacted through Silk Road, a now defunct cryptomarket where illicit drugs were sold in the dark web. Drawing on a digital ethnography of Silk Road, we develop the notion of constructive activism to extend the lexicon of concepts available to discuss forms of online activism. Monitoring of the cryptomarket took place between June 2011 and its closure in October 2013. Just before and after the closure of the marketplace we conducted anonymous online interviews with 17 people who reported buying drugs on Silk Road (1.0). These interviews were conducted synchronously and interactively through encrypted instant messaging. Participants discussed harnessing and developing the technological tools needed to access Silk Road and engage within the Silk Road community. For participants Silk Road was not just a market for trading drugs: it facilitated a shared experience of personal freedom within a libertarian philosophical framework, where open discussions about stigmatized behaviours were encouraged and supported. Tensions between public activism against drug prohibition and the need to hide one's identity as a drug user from public scrutiny were partially resolved through community actions that internalized these politics, rather than engaging in forms of online activism that are intended to have real-world political effects. Most aptly described through van de Sande's (2015) concept of prefigurative politics, they sought to transform their values into built environments that were designed to socially engineer a more permissive digital reality, which we refer to as constructive activism