No-arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates

We use a Bayesian vector autoregression with stochastic volatility to forecast government bond yields. We form the conjugate prior from a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. The model improves on the accuracy of point and density forecasts from a no-change random walk and an affine term structure model with stochastic volatility. Our proposed approach may succeed by relaxing the no-arbitrage affine term structure model's requirements that yields obey a factor structure and that the factors follow a Markov process. In the term structure model, its cross-equation no-arbitrage restrictions on the factor loadings appear to play a marginal role in forecasting gains

Taste intensity and hedonic responses to simple beverages in gastrointestinal cancer patients

Changes in the taste of food have been implicated as a potential cause of reduced dietary intake among cancer patients. However, data on intensity and hedonic responses to the four basic tastes in cancer are scanty and contradictory. The present study aimed at evaluating taste intensity and hedonic responses to simple beverages in 47 anorectic patients affected by gastrointestinal cancer and in 55 healthy subjects. Five suprathreshold concentrations of each of the four test substances (sucrose in black current drinks, citric acid in lemonade, NaCl in unsalted tomato juice, and urea in tonic water) were used. Patients were invited to express a judgment of intensity and pleasantness ranging from 0 to 10. Mean intensity scores directly correlated with concentrations of sour, salty, bitter, and sweet stimuli, in both normals and those with cancer. Intensity judgments were higher in cancer patients with respect to sweet (for median and high concentrations, P < 0.05), salty (for all concentrations, P < 0.05), and bitter tastes (for median concentration, P < 0.01). Hedonic function increased with the increase of the stimuli only for the sweet taste. A negative linear correlation was found between sour, bitter, and salty concentrations and hedonic score. Both in cancer patients and in healthy subjects, hedonic judgments increased with the increase of the stimulus for the sweet taste (r 1/4 0.978 and r 1/4 0.985, P 1/4 0.004 and P 1/4 0.002, respectively), and decreased for the salty (r 1/4 ??0.827 and r 1/4 ??0.884, P 1/4 0.084 and P 1/4 0.047, respectively) and bitter tastes (r 1/4 ??0.990 and r 1/4 ??0.962, P 1/4 0.009 and P 1/4 0.001, respectively). For the sour taste, the hedonic scores remained stable with the increase of the stimulus in noncancer controls (r 1/4 ??0.785, P 1/4 0.115) and decreased in cancer patients (r 1/4 ??0.996, P 1/4 0.0001). The hedonic scores for the sweet taste and the bitter taste were similar in cancer patients and healthy subjects, and these scores were significantly higher in cancer patients than in healthy subjects for most of the concentrations of the salty taste and all the concentrations of the sour taste. The present study suggests that cancer patients, compared to healthy individuals, have a normal sensitivity, a normal likingfor pleasant stimuli, and a decreased dislike for unpleasant stimuli. Moreover, when compared to controls, they show higher hedonic scores for middle and high concentrations of the salty taste and for all concentrations of the sour taste. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether these changes observed in cancer patients translate into any alteration in dietary behavior and/or food preferences

An efficient pseudomedian filter for tiling microrrays

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tiling microarrays are becoming an essential technology in the functional genomics toolbox. They have been applied to the tasks of novel transcript identification, elucidation of transcription factor binding sites, detection of methylated DNA and several other applications in several model organisms. These experiments are being conducted at increasingly finer resolutions as the microarray technology enjoys increasingly greater feature densities. The increased densities naturally lead to increased data analysis requirements. Specifically, the most widely employed algorithm for tiling array analysis involves smoothing observed signals by computing pseudomedians within sliding windows, a <it>O</it>(<it>n</it>²log<it>n</it>) calculation in each window. This poor time complexity is an issue for tiling array analysis and could prove to be a real bottleneck as tiling microarray experiments become grander in scope and finer in resolution.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We therefore implemented Monahan's HLQEST algorithm that reduces the runtime complexity for computing the pseudomedian of <it>n </it>numbers to <it>O</it>(<it>n</it>log<it>n</it>) from <it>O</it>(<it>n</it>²log<it>n</it>). For a representative tiling microarray dataset, this modification reduced the smoothing procedure's runtime by nearly 90%. We then leveraged the fact that elements within sliding windows remain largely unchanged in overlapping windows (as one slides across genomic space) to further reduce computation by an additional 43%. This was achieved by the application of skip lists to maintaining a sorted list of values from window to window. This sorted list could be maintained with simple <it>O</it>(log <it>n</it>) inserts and deletes. We illustrate the favorable scaling properties of our algorithms with both time complexity analysis and benchmarking on synthetic datasets.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Tiling microarray analyses that rely upon a sliding window pseudomedian calculation can require many hours of computation. We have eased this requirement significantly by implementing efficient algorithms that scale well with genomic feature density. This result not only speeds the current standard analyses, but also makes possible ones where many iterations of the filter may be required, such as might be required in a bootstrap or parameter estimation setting. Source code and executables are available at <url>http://tiling.gersteinlab.org/pseudomedian/</url>.</p

Il problema del rimbalzo unidimensionale

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Problema dell'unicità. - Esempio di non unicità

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Il problema del rimbalzo unidimensionale

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Problema dell'unicità. - Esempio di non unicità

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Problema dell'unicità. - Esempio di non unicità

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Il problema del rimbalzo unidimensionale e sue approssimazioni non convesse

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Rock mass characterization by UAV and close-range photogrammetry: A multiscale approach applied along the vallone dell’elva road (Italy)

Geostructural rock mass surveys and the collection of data related to discontinues provide the basis for the characterization of rock masses and the study of their stability conditions. This paper describes a multiscale approach that was carried out using both non-contact techniques and traditional support techniques to survey certain geometrical features of discontinuities, such as their orientation, spacing, and useful persistence. This information is useful in identifying the possible kinematics and stability conditions. These techniques are extremely useful in the case study of the Elva valley road (Northern Italy), in which instability phenomena are spread across 9 km in an overhanging rocky mass. A multiscale approach was applied, obtaining digital surface models (DSMs) at three different scales: large-scale DSM of the entire road, a medium-scale DSM to assess portions of the slope, and a small-scale DSM to assess single discontinuities. The georeferenced point cloud and consequent DSMs of the slopes were obtained using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and terrestrial photogrammetric technique, allowing topographic and rapid traditional geostructural surveys. This technique allowed us to take measurements along the entire road, obtaining geometrical data for the discontinuities that are statistically representative of the rock mass and useful in defining the possible kinematic mechanisms and volumes of potentially detachable blocks. The main purpose of this study was to analyse how the geostructural features of a rock mass can affect the stability slope conditions at different scales in order to identify road sectors susceptible to different potential failure mechanisms using only kinematic analysis