Assessment of seasonal winter temperature forecast errors in the regcm model over northern Vietnam

This study verified the seasonal six-month forecasts for winter temperatures for northern Vietnam in 1998–2018 using a regional climate model (RegCM4) with the boundary conditions of the climate forecast system Version 2 (CFSv2) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). First, different physical schemes (land-surface process, cumulus, and radiation parameterizations) in RegCM4 were applied to generate 12 single forecasts. Second, the simple ensemble forecasts were generated through the combinations of those different physical formulations. Three subclimate regions (R1, R2, R3) of northern Vietnam were separately tested with surface observations and a reanalysis dataset (Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA55)). The highest sensitivity to the mean monthly temperature forecasts was shown by the land-surface parameterizations (the biosphere−atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) and community land model version 4.5 (CLM)). The BATS forecast groups tended to provide forecasts with lower temperatures than the actual observations, while the CLM forecast groups tended to overestimate the temperatures. The forecast errors from single forecasts could be clearly reduced with ensemble mean forecasts, but ensemble spreads were less than those root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). This indicated that the ensemble forecast was underdispersed and that the direct forecast from RegCM4 needed more postprocessing

Accounting-based variables as an early warning indicator of financial distress in crisis and non-crisis periods

Financial integration in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a key focus of the ASEAN Economic Community. Whereas many studies focus on modelling corporate default, this paper identifies early warning indicators of financial distress before a default, using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) models with a sample of listed and delisted companies in the ASEAN region. The analysis examines 720 companies in 10 different industries across six ASEAN countries from 1997 to 2016. The study constructs individual models for each country as well as an overall model for the entire region, using both in-sample and out-of-sample approaches. This overall model could be useful for an integrated banking system. To ensure robustness, the study also separately examines the predictive performance of the MDA models across different economic crises: the Asian financial crisis (AFC) from 1997 to 2000, the global financial crisis (GFC) from 2007 to 2009 and their pre- and post-crisis periods. We find that profitability ratios are the best indicators of financial distress in the ASEAN region, followed by liquidity and leverage ratios. In addition, our findings reveal common indicators that can be used to predict financial distress across ASEAN countries. The single model performs reasonably well in predicting financial distress 1 year ahead. In addition, the model is extended to incorporate a market-based indicator into the MDA models, the distance to default. However, the inclusion of this indicator does not significantly improve the accuracy of the models in predicting financial distress at listed firms in the ASEAN region

A study of HI-selected galaxies in the Hercules cluster

The present study is aimed at a sample of 22 galaxies detected in the blind VLA HI survey of the Hercules cluster by Dickey (1997), 18 of which were selected on an HI line width smaller than 270 km/s and 4 others with only tentative optical counterparts on the Palomar Sky Survey. Sensitive single-dish HI line spectra were obtained for 20 of them, and for one (47-154) the VLA detection was not confirmed. Optical surface photometry was obtained of 10 objects, for 8 of which optical spectroscopy was obtained as well. Based on various selection criteria, two (ce-143 and ne-204) can be classified as dwarfs. The objects of which optical observations were made show star formation properties similar to those of published samples of actively star forming galaxies, and approximately half of them have properties intermediate between those of dwarf galaxies and low-luminosity disc galaxies. No optical redshifts could be obtained for two of the galaxies (sw-103 and sw-194) and their physical association with the HI clouds detected at their positions therefore remains uncertain. Unique among the objects is the Tidal Dwarf Galaxy ce-061 in a tail of the IC 1182 merger system.Comment: 20 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in A&

The fluctuation energy balance in non-suspended fluid-mediated particle transport

Here we compare two extreme regimes of non-suspended fluid-mediated particle transport, transport in light and heavy fluids ("saltation" and "bedload", respectively), regarding their particle fluctuation energy balance. From direct numerical simulations, we surprisingly find that the ratio between collisional and fluid drag dissipation of fluctuation energy is significantly larger in saltation than in bedload, even though the contribution of interparticle collisions to transport of momentum and energy is much smaller in saltation due to the low concentration of particles in the transport layer. We conclude that the much higher frequency of high-energy particle-bed impacts ("splash") in saltation is the cause for this counter-intuitive behavior. Moreover, from a comparison of these simulations to Particle Tracking Velocimetry measurements which we performed in a wind tunnel under steady transport of fine and coarse sand, we find that turbulent fluctuations of the flow produce particle fluctuation energy at an unexpectedly high rate in saltation even under conditions for which the effects of turbulence are usually believed to be small

Magnetic behavior of nanocrystalline ErCo2

We have investigated the magnetic behavior of the nanocrystalline form of a well-known Laves phase compound, ErCo2 - the bulk form of which has been known to undergo an interesting first-order ferrimagnetic ordering near 32 K - synthesized by high-energy ball-milling. It is found that, in these nanocrystallites, Co exhibits ferromagnetic order at room temperature as inferred from the magnetization data. However, the magnetic transition temperature for Er sublattice remains essentially unaffected as though the (Er)4f-Co(3d) coupling is weak on Er magnetism. The net magnetic moment as measured at high fields, sat at 120 kOe, is significantly reduced with respect to that for the bulk in the ferrimagnetically ordered state and possible reasons are outlined. We have also compared the magnetocaloric behavior for the bulk and the nano particles.Comment: JPCM, in pres

Electron g-Factor Anisotropy in Symmetric (110)-oriented GaAs Quantum Wells

We demonstrate by spin quantum beat spectroscopy that in undoped symmetric (110)-oriented GaAs/AlGaAs single quantum wells even a symmetric spatial envelope wavefunction gives rise to an asymmetric in-plane electron Land\'e-g-factor. The anisotropy is neither a direct consequence of the asymmetric in-plane Dresselhaus splitting nor of the asymmetric Zeeman splitting of the hole bands but is a pure higher order effect that exists as well for diamond type lattices. The measurements for various well widths are very well described within 14 x 14 band k.p theory and illustrate that the electron spin is an excellent meter variable to map out the internal -otherwise hidden- symmetries in two dimensional systems. Fourth order perturbation theory yields an analytical expression for the strength of the g-factor anisotropy, providing a qualitative understanding of the observed effects