Forecasting scenarios for UK household expenditure and associated GHG emissions : Outlook to 2030

Peer reviewedPreprin

How Polarized Have We Become? A Multimodal Classification of Trump Followers and Clinton Followers

Polarization in American politics has been extensively documented and analyzed for decades, and the phenomenon became all the more apparent during the 2016 presidential election, where Trump and Clinton depicted two radically different pictures of America. Inspired by this gaping polarization and the extensive utilization of Twitter during the 2016 presidential campaign, in this paper we take the first step in measuring polarization in social media and we attempt to predict individuals' Twitter following behavior through analyzing ones' everyday tweets, profile images and posted pictures. As such, we treat polarization as a classification problem and study to what extent Trump followers and Clinton followers on Twitter can be distinguished, which in turn serves as a metric of polarization in general. We apply LSTM to processing tweet features and we extract visual features using the VGG neural network. Integrating these two sets of features boosts the overall performance. We are able to achieve an accuracy of 69%, suggesting that the high degree of polarization recorded in the literature has started to manifest itself in social media as well.Comment: 16 pages, SocInfo 2017, 9th International Conference on Social Informatic

Engaging stakeholders in research to address water-energy-food (WEF) nexus challenges

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet, stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs—in this case orientated around a number of cases studies—are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling-up innovations in the nexus space, to contribute insights to policy and decision making

Unintended consequences: Unknowable and unavoidable, or knowable and unforgivable?

This is the final version. Available on open access from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this recordRecognizing that there are multiple environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, it is essential that potential negative outcomes of seemingly positive actions are accounted for. This alertness to unintended consequences underscores the importance of so called ‘nexus’ research, which recognizes the integrated and interactive nature of water, energy and food systems, and aims to understand the broader implications of developments in any one of these systems. This article presents a novel framework for categorizing such detrimental unintended consequences, based upon how much is known about the system in question and the scope for avoiding any such unintended consequences. The framework comprises four categories (Knowable and Avoidable; Knowable and Unavoidable; Unknowable and Avoidable, and Unknowable and Unavoidable). The categories are explored with reference to examples in both the water-energy-food nexus and planetary boundary frameworks. The examples highlight the potential for the unexpected to happen and explore dynamic nature of the situations that give rise to the unexpected. The article concludes with guidance on how the framework can be used to increase confidence that best efforts have been made to navigate our way towards secure and sustainable water, energy and food systems, avoiding and/or managing unintended consequences along the way.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

An analysis of integrative outcomes in the Dayton peace negotiations

The nature of the negotiated outcomes of the eight issues of the Dayton Peace Agreement was studied in terms of their integrative and distributive aspects. in cases where integrative elements were Sound, further analysis was conducted by concentrating on Pruitt's five types of integrative solutions: expanding the pie, cost cutting, non-specific compensation, logrolling, and bridging. The results showed that real world international negotiations can arrive at integrative agreements even when they involve redistribution of resources tin this case the redistribution of former Yugoslavia). Another conclusion was that an agreement can consist of several distributive outcomes and several integrative outcomes produced by different kinds of mechanisms. Similarly, in single issues more than one mechanism can be used simultaneously. Some distributive bargaining was needed in order to determine how much compensation was required. Finally, each integrative formula had some distributive aspects as well

One More Awareness Gap? The Behaviour–Impact Gap Problem

Preceding research has made hardly any attempt to measure the ecological impacts of pro-environmental behaviour in an objective way. Those impacts were rather supposed or calculated. The research described herein scrutinized the ecological impact reductions achieved through pro-environmental behaviour and raised the question how much of a reduction in carbon footprint can be achieved through voluntary action without actually affecting the socio-economic determinants of life. A survey was carried out in order to measure the difference between the ecological footprint of “green” and “brown” consumers. No significant difference was found between the ecological footprints of the two groups—suggesting that individual pro-environmental attitudes and behaviour do not always reduce the environmental impacts of consumption. This finding resulted in the formulation of a new proposition called the BIG (behaviour–impact gap) problem, which is an interesting addition to research in the field of environmental awareness gaps

Estimating Small Area Income Deprivation: An Iterative Proportional Fitting Approach

Small area estimation and in particular the estimation of small area income deprivation has potential value in the development of new or alternative components of multiple deprivation indices. These new approaches enable the development of income distribution threshold based as opposed to benefit count based measures of income deprivation and so enable the alignment of regional and national measures such as the Households Below Average Income with small area measures. This paper briefly reviews a number of approaches to small area estimation before describing in some detail an iterative proportional fitting based spatial microsimulation approach. This approach is then applied to the estimation of small area HBAI rates at the small area level in Wales in 2003-5. The paper discusses the results of this approach, contrasts them with contemporary ‘official’ income deprivation measures for the same areas and describes a range of ways to assess the robustness of the results

Delivering energy efficiency and carbon reduction schemes in England: Lessons from Green Deal Pioneer Places

Against a background of growing international and national carbon reduction legislation, the UK government introduced the “Green Deal” to deliver a significant increase in housing energy efficiency and reduction in carbon emissions. This paper reflects on one English local authority's experience delivering a programme intended to foster local interest in the Green Deal. Drawing on social surveys and pre and post Green Deal intervention interviews with five demonstrator homes (households that applied to receive a Green Deal package fully funded by the scheme, providing a test bed for the Green Deal recruitment and installation process), this paper shows that awareness and understanding of the Green Deal scheme is low. There is opposition to the cost of finance offered but a strong interest in improving household warmth and for funding improvements through payments added to the electricity bill. Demonstrator home residents perceived Green Deals had improved the warmth and quality of their home, but saving money was the primary motivator for their involvement, not increasing warmth. Whilst Green Deal has not delivered the level of success that was hoped, much can be learned from the scheme to improve future energy efficiency schemes that will be necessary to deliver emission reduction commitments

Gender differences in the evolution of haute cuisine chef's career

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Culinary Science & Technology on 2020, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/15428052.2019.1640156[EN] This article reviews gender differences in the career paths of successful chefs, including barriers, success factors, and the entrepreneurial path. The research was developed in 2016-17, using an international survey carried out in Spain, France, and the United States among culinary students, cooks, and chefs who responded to a structured questionnaire based on pre-selected topics. The results show that a chef's career requires various sets of skills. They should be leaders, mentors, and entrepreneurs. They work in a hard and competitive environment where building their brand and achieving public recognition is a must. Their professional satisfaction depends on learning, evolving, and launching their restaurant. There were two main differences between the sample of women chefs and the general sample of chefs: they required more mentoring, and they achieved greater job satisfaction when they were self-employed.Albors Garrigós, J.; Haddaji, M.; García-Segovia, P.; Peiró Signes, A. (2020). Gender differences in the evolution of haute cuisine chef's career. Journal of Culinary Science & Technology (Online). 18(6):439-468. https://doi.org/10.1080/15428052.2019.1640156S439468186Emiroğlu, B. D., Akova, O., & Tanrıverdi, H. (2015). The Relationship Between Turnover Intention and Demographic Factors in Hotel Businesses: A Study at Five Star Hotels in Istanbul. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 207, 385-397. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.10.108Ainuddin, R. A., Beamish, P. W., Hulland, J. S., & Rouse, M. J. (2007). Resource attributes and firm performance in international joint ventures. Journal of World Business, 42(1), 47-60. doi:10.1016/j.jwb.2006.11.001Allen, H., & Mac Con Iomaire, M. (2016). «Against all odds»: Head chefs profiled. Journal of Culinary Science & Technology, 14(2), 107-135. doi:10.1080/15428052.2015.1080645Allen, H., & Mac Con Iomaire, M. (2016). Secrets of a Head Chef: Exploring Factors Influencing Success in Irish Kitchens. Journal of Culinary Science & Technology, 15(3), 187-222. doi:10.1080/15428052.2016.1225538Anderson, E. R. (2008). ‘Whose name’s on the awning?’ Gender, entrepreneurship and the American diner. Gender, Place & Culture, 15(4), 395-410. doi:10.1080/09663690802155611Balazs, K. (2001). Some like it haute: Organizational Dynamics, 30(2), 134-148. doi:10.1016/s0090-2616(01)00048-1Balazs, K. (2002). Take One Entrepreneur: European Management Journal, 20(3), 247-259. doi:10.1016/s0263-2373(02)00040-3Blanck, J. F. (2007). Research Chefs Association . Journal of Agricultural & Food Information, 8(1), 3-8. doi:10.1300/j108v08n01_02Boone, J., Veller, T., Nikolaeva, K., Keith, M., Kefgen, K., & Houran, J. (2013). Rethinking a Glass Ceiling in the Hospitality Industry. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 54(3), 230-239. doi:10.1177/1938965513492624Burgess, C. (2003). Gender and salaries in hotel financial management: it’s still a man’s world. Women in Management Review, 18(1/2), 50-59. doi:10.1108/09649420310462325Cairns, K., Johnston, J., & Baumann, S. (2010). Caring About Food. Gender & Society, 24(5), 591-615. doi:10.1177/0891243210383419Food and Femininity. (2015). doi:10.5040/9781474255158Carvalho, I., Costa, C., Lykke, N. & Torres, A. (2018). Agency, structures and women managers' views of their careers in tourism. In Women's Studies International Forum (Vol. 71, pp. 1-11). Pergamon. London.Casado-Díaz, J. M., & Simón, H. (2016). Wage differences in the hospitality sector. Tourism Management, 52, 96-109. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2015.06.015Childers, L. & Kryza, A. (2015). The 17 best female chefs in America. Thrillist. Retrieved from https://www.thrillist.com/eat/nation/america-s-best-female-chefsChin, W. W. (2009). How to Write Up and Report PLS Analyses. Handbook of Partial Least Squares, 655-690. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-32827-8_29Cooper, J., Giousmpasoglou, C., & Marinakou, E. (2017). Occupational identity and culture: the case of Michelin-starred chefs. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 29(5), 1362-1379. doi:10.1108/ijchm-02-2016-0071Costa, C., Bakas, F. E., Breda, Z., & Durão, M. (2017). ‘Emotional’ female managers: How gendered roles influence tourism management discourse. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 33, 149-156. doi:10.1016/j.jhtm.2017.09.011Day, E. (2015, June 7). Hélène Darroze: Life according to the world’s best female chef. The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/jun/07/helene-darroze-female-chefsdruckman, charlotte. (2010). Why Are There No Great Women Chefs? Gastronomica, 10(1), 24-31. doi:10.1525/gfc.2010.10.1.24Maiti, C. K., Sen, S., Paul, A. K., & Acharya, K. (2007). First Report of Alternaria dianthicola Causing Leaf Blight on Withania somnifera from India. Plant Disease, 91(4), 467-467. doi:10.1094/pdis-91-4-0467bFerreira Freire Guimarães, C. R., & Silva, J. R. (2016). Pay gap by gender in the tourism industry of Brazil. Tourism Management, 52, 440-450. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2015.07.003Fornell, C., & Larcker, D. F. (1981). Structural Equation Models with Unobservable Variables and Measurement Error: Algebra and Statistics. Journal of Marketing Research, 18(3), 382-388. doi:10.1177/002224378101800313George, R. T., & Hancer, M. (2005). Leader-Member Exchange Quality. Journal of Human Resources in Hospitality & Tourism, 3(2), 85-99. doi:10.1300/j171v03n02_04Gergaud, O., Smeets, V. & Warzynski, F. (2011). Learning by cooking and reputation building: A French recipe to become a top chef. American Association of Wine Economists. Working paper no.81. Retrieved from http://www.wine-economics.orgGlauber, R. (2011). Limited Access: Gender, Occupational Composition, and Flexible Work Scheduling. The Sociological Quarterly, 52(3), 472-494. doi:10.1111/j.1533-8525.2011.01215.xGuerrina, R. (2002). Mothering in Europe. European Journal of Women’s Studies, 9(1), 49-68. doi:10.1177/1350506802009001381Guyette, W. C. (1981). The Executive Chef: Manager or Culinarian? Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 22(3), 71-78. doi:10.1177/001088048102200320Haddaji, M., Albors-Garrigós, J., & García-Segovia, P. (2017). Women chefs’ experience: Kitchen barriers and success factors. International Journal of Gastronomy and Food Science, 9, 49-54. doi:10.1016/j.ijgfs.2017.06.004Haddaji, M., Albors-Garrigós, J., & García-Segovia, P. (2017). Women Chefs’ Access Barriers to Michelin Stars: A Case-Study Based Approach. Journal of Culinary Science & Technology, 15(4), 320-338. doi:10.1080/15428052.2017.1289133Hair, J. F., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2011). PLS-SEM: Indeed a Silver Bullet. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 19(2), 139-152. doi:10.2753/mtp1069-6679190202Harringon, R., & Herzog, C. (2007). Chef John Folse: A Case Study of Vision, Leadership & Sustainability. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Education, 19(3), 5-10. doi:10.1080/10963758.2007.10696892Harris, D. A., & Giuffre, P. (2010). «The Price You Pay»: How Female Professional Chefs Negotiate Work and Family. Gender Issues, 27(1-2), 27-52. doi:10.1007/s12147-010-9086-8Harris, D. A., & Giuffre, P. (2015). Taking the Heat. doi:10.36019/9780813571270Heilman, M. E., & Haynes, M. C. (2005). No Credit Where Credit Is Due: Attributional Rationalization of Women’s Success in Male-Female Teams. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(5), 905-916. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.90.5.905Hoyt, C. L. & Simon, S. (2011). Female leaders: Injurious or inspiring role models for women? Jepson School of Leadership Studies articles, book chapters, and other publications. 114. Retrieved from http://scholarship.richmond.edu/jepson-faculty-publications/114Hurley, A. E. (1999). Incorporating feminist theories into sociological theories of entrepreneurship. Women in Management Review, 14(2), 54-62. doi:10.1108/09649429910261396Kiser, A. I. T. (2015). Workplace and leadership perceptions between men and women. Gender in Management: An International Journal, 30(8), 598-612. doi:10.1108/gm-11-2014-0097Knutson, B. J., & Schmidgall, R. S. (1999). Dimensions of the Glass Ceiling in the Hospitality Industry. Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 40(6), 64-75. doi:10.1177/001088049904000618Ko, W.-H. (2012). The relationships among professional competence, job satisfaction and career development confidence for chefs in Taiwan. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 31(3), 1004-1011. doi:10.1016/j.ijhm.2011.12.004Lane, C. (2013). Taste makers in the «fine-dining» restaurant industry: The attribution of aesthetic and economic value by gastronomic guides. Poetics, 41(4), 342-365. doi:10.1016/j.poetic.2013.05.003Lee, K.-E. (2011). Moderating effects of leader-member exchange (LMX) on job burnout in dietitians and chefs of institutional foodservice. Nutrition Research and Practice, 5(1), 80. doi:10.4162/nrp.2011.5.1.80Lee, K., Yang, G., & Graham, J. L. (2006). Tension and trust in international business negotiations: American executives negotiating with Chinese executives. Journal of International Business Studies, 37(5), 623-641. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400215Lloyd-Fore, N. (1988). Where Next for Women? Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 29(3), 9-10. doi:10.1177/001088048802900306Mac Con Iomaire, M. (2008). Understanding the Heat—Mentoring: A Model for Nurturing Culinary Talent. Journal of Culinary Science & Technology, 6(1), 43-62. doi:10.1080/15428050701884196Martin, P., & Barnard, A. (2013). The experience of women in male-dominated occupations: A constructivist grounded theory inquiry. SA Journal of Industrial Psychology, 39(2). doi:10.4102/sajip.v39i2.1099Meah, A., & Jackson, P. (2013). Crowded kitchens: the ‘democratisation’ of domesticity? Gender, Place & Culture, 20(5), 578-596. doi:10.1080/0966369x.2012.701202Michelin. (2018). Retrieved from https://guide.michelin.comMintz, S. W. (1989). Cuisine and haute cuisine: How are they linked? Food and Foodways, 3(3), 185-190. doi:10.1080/07409710.1989.9961947Müller, K. F., VanLeeuwen, D., Mandabach, K., & Harrington, R. J. (2009). The effectiveness of culinary curricula: a case study. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 21(2), 167-178. doi:10.1108/09596110910935660Nebel, E. C., Braunlich, C. G., & Zhang, Y. (1994). Career Paths in American Luxury Hotels: Hotel Food and Beverage Directors. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 6(6), 3-9. doi:10.1108/09596119410070495Orser, B., & Leck, J. (2010). Gender influences on career success outcomes. Gender in Management: An International Journal, 25(5), 386-407. doi:10.1108/17542411011056877Pratten, J. D. (2003). What makes a great chef? British Food Journal, 105(7), 454-459. doi:10.1108/00070700310497255Pratten, J. D. (2003). The training and retention of chefs. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 15(4), 237-242. doi:10.1108/09596110310475702Purcell, K. (1996). The relationship between career and job opportunities: women’s employment in the hospitality industry as a microcosm of women’s employment. Women in Management Review, 11(5), 17-24. doi:10.1108/09649429610122618Remington, J., & Kitterlin-Lynch, M. (2017). Still pounding on the glass ceiling: A study of female leaders in hospitality, travel, and tourism management. Journal of Human Resources in Hospitality & Tourism, 17(1), 22-37. doi:10.1080/15332845.2017.1328259Sanders, M. D. (2015). The world´s most elite female chefs reveal what it’s really like to have their Michelin stars. Retrieved from https://www.marieclaire.com/food-cocktails/g3262/women-chefs-three-michelin-stars/Santero-Sanchez, R., Segovia-Pérez, M., Castro-Nuñez, B., Figueroa-Domecq, C., & Talón-Ballestero, P. (2015). Gender differences in the hospitality industry: A Job quality index. Tourism Management, 51, 234-246. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2015.05.025Sarstedt, M., Henseler, J., & Ringle, C. M. (2011). Multigroup Analysis in Partial Least Squares (PLS) Path Modeling: Alternative Methods and Empirical Results. Measurement and Research Methods in International Marketing, 195-218. doi:10.1108/s1474-7979(2011)0000022012Supski, S. (2006). ‘It Was Another Skin’: The kitchen as home for Australian post-war immigrant women. Gender, Place & Culture, 13(2), 133-141. doi:10.1080/09663690600573635Telerama. (2018). Gastronomie, Où sont les femmes? La carte des 500 cheffes à découvrir dans toute la France. Retrieved from https://www.telerama.fr/monde/gastronomie-la-carte-des-370-cheffes-a-decouvrir-dans-toute-la-france,n5514484.phpTims, M., Bakker, A. B., & Xanthopoulou, D. (2011). Do transformational leaders enhance their followers’ daily work engagement? The Leadership Quarterly, 22(1), 121-131. doi:10.1016/j.leaqua.2010.12.011USA Today. (2018, July 5). 50 states: 50 female chefs. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/experience/food-and-wine/2018/03/05/americas-female-chefs/385015002/onWilliams, C. L., & Dellinger, K. (Eds.). (2010). Gender and Sexuality in the Workplace. Research in the Sociology of Work. doi:10.1108/s0277-2833(2010)20WTO, World Tourism Association (2018), UNWTO Tourism Highlights: 2018 Edition, Madrid, Spain.Yen, C.-L. (Alan), Cooper, C. A., & Murrmann, S. K. (2013). Exploring Culinary Graduates’ Career Decisions and Expectations. Journal of Human Resources in Hospitality & Tourism, 12(2), 109-125. doi:10.1080/15332845.2013.752707Zhong, Y., & Couch, S. (2007). Hospitality Students’ Perceptions of Facilitators and Constraints Affecting Women’s Career Advancement in the Hospitality Industry. Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal, 35(4), 357-373. doi:10.1177/1077727x07299993Zopiatis, A. (2010). Is it art or science? Chef’s competencies for success. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 29(3), 459-467. doi:10.1016/j.ijhm.2009.12.003Zopiatis, A., Theocharous, A. L., & Constanti, P. (2017). Career satisfaction and future intentions in the hospitality industry: An intrinsic or an extrinsic proposition? Journal of Human Resources in Hospitality & Tourism, 17(1), 98-120. doi:10.1080/15332845.2017.134074

The challenges of applying planetary boundaries as a basis for strategic decision-making in companies with global supply chains

The Planetary Boundaries (PB) framework represents a significant advance in specifying the ecological constraints on human development. However, to enable decision-makers in business and public policy to respect these constraints in strategic planning, the PB framework needs to be developed to generate practical tools. With this objective in mind, we analyse the recent literature and highlight three major scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the PB approach in decision-making: first, identification of thresholds or boundaries with associated metrics for different geographical scales; second, the need to frame approaches to allocate fair shares in the 'safe operating space' bounded by the PBs across the value chain and; third, the need for international bodies to co-ordinate the implementation of the measures needed to respect the Planetary Boundaries. For the first two of these challenges, we consider how they might be addressed for four PBs: climate change, freshwater use, biosphere integrity and chemical pollution and other novel entities. Four key opportunities are identified: (1) development of a common system of metrics that can be applied consistently at and across different scales; (2) setting 'distance from boundary' measures that can be applied at different scales; (3) development of global, preferably open-source, databases and models; and (4) advancing understanding of the interactions between the different PBs. Addressing the scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the planetary boundaries needs be complemented with progress in addressing the equity and ethical issues in allocating the safe operating space between companies and sectors