Significance of sensor location in real-time traffic state estimation

Short-term congestion caused due to traffic incidents or other road environment factors significantly reduces traffic flow capacity of a link which forms a major part of travel time delays. Accurate and reliable estimate of real-time traffic state is essential for optimizing network performance during unpredictable events. Inaccurate estimate of current traffic state produces unreliable travel-time estimations which lead to ineffective traffic management strategies during traffic incident. This study highlights the accuracy and reliability of traffic state estimate when a traffic flow prediction model is not provided with information about duration and impact of the incident on traffic flow capacity of the link. Cell Transmission Model (CTM) is used for prediction of traffic state and measurements from the sensor are combined in Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to minimize square of error between predicted and measured traffic state. A simple link is used to highlight the difference between actual traffic state and estimated traffic state using a naive prediction model for real-time traffic state estimation. Analysis of simulation results shows that estimate of traffic state is reliable and accurate for cells upstream of the measurement sensor when incident occurred downstream of measurement sensor. Whereas when incident location is upstream of measurement sensor, the estimated traffic state for downstream cells of measurement sensor is more close to actual traffic condition

Enhanced cooperative car-following traffic model with the combination of V2V and V2I communication

Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication are emerging components of intelligent transport systems (ITS) based on which vehicles can drive in a cooperative way and, hence, significantly improve traffic flow efficiency. However, due to the high vehicle mobility, the unreliable vehicular communications such as packet loss and transmission delay can impair the performance of the cooperative driving system (CDS). In addition, the downstream traffic information collected by roadside sensors in the V2I communication may introduce measurement errors, which also affect the performance of the CDS. The goal of this paper is to bridge the gap between traffic flow modelling and communication approaches in order to build up better cooperative traffic systems. To this end, we aim to develop an enhanced cooperative microscopic (car-following) traffic model considering V2V and V2I communication (or V2X for short), and investigate how vehicular communications affect the vehicle cooperative driving, especially in traffic disturbance scenarios. For these purposes, we design a novel consensus-based vehicle control algorithm for the CDS, in which not only the local traffic flow stability is guaranteed, but also the shock waves are supposed to be smoothed. The IEEE 802.11p, the defacto vehicular networking standard, is selected as the communication protocols, and the roadside sensors are deployed to collect the average speed in the targeted area as the downstream traffic reference. Specifically, the imperfections of vehicular communication as well as the measured information noise are taken into account. Numerical results show the efficiency of the proposed scheme. This paper attempts to theoretically investigate the relationship between vehicular communications and cooperative driving, which is needed for the future deployment of both connected vehicles and infrastructure (i.e. V2X

A Driving Risk Surrogate and Its Application in Car-Following Scenario at Expressway

Traffic safety is important in reducing death and building a harmonious society. In addition to studies of accident incidences, the perception of driving risk is significant in guiding the implementation of appropriate driving countermeasures. Risk assessment can be conducted in real-time for traffic safety due to the rapid development of communication technology and computing capabilities. This paper aims at the problems of difficult calibration and inconsistent thresholds in the existing risk assessment methods. It proposes a risk assessment model based on the potential field to quantify the driving risk of vehicles. Firstly, virtual energy is proposed as an attribute considering vehicle sizes and velocity. Secondly, the driving risk surrogate(DRS) is proposed based on potential field theory to describe the risk degree of vehicles. Risk factors are quantified by establishing submodels, including an interactive vehicle risk surrogate, a restrictions risk surrogate, and a speed risk surrogate. To unify the risk threshold, acceleration for implementation guidance is derived from the risk field strength. Finally, a naturalistic driving dataset in Nanjing, China, is selected, and 3063 pairs of following naturalistic trajectories are screened out. Based on that, the proposed model and other models use for comparisons are calibrated through the improved particle optimization algorithm. Simulations prove that the proposed model performs better than other algorithms in risk perception and response, car-following trajectory, and velocity estimation. In addition, the proposed model exhibits better car-following ability than existing car-following models

Probabilistic travel time progression and its application to automatic vehicle identification data

Travel time has been identified as an important variable to evaluate the performance of a transportation system. Based on the travel time prediction, road users can make their optimal decision in choosing route and departure time. In order to utilise adequately the advanced data collection methods that provide real-time different types of information, this paper is aimed at a novel approach to the estimation of long roadway travel times, using Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) technology. Since the long roads contain a large number of scanners, the AVI sample size tends to reduce and, as such, computing the distribution for the total road travel time becomes difficult. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic framework that extends the deterministic travel time progression method to dependent random variables and enables the off-line estimation of road travel time distributions. In the proposed method, the accuracy of the estimation does not depend on the size of the sample over the entire corridor, but only on the amount of historical data that is available for each link. In practice, the system is also robust to small link samples and can be used to detect outliers within the AVI data

A new multi-anticipative car-following model with consideration of the desired following distance

We propose in this paper an extension of the multi-anticipative optimal velocity car-following model to consider explicitly the desired following distance. The model on the following vehicle’s acceleration is formulated as a linear function of the optimal velocity and the desired distance, with reaction-time delay in elements. The linear stability condition of the model is derived. The results demonstrate that the stability of traffic flow is improved by introducing the desired following distance, increasing the time gap in the desired following distance or decreasing the reaction-time delay. The simulation results show that by taking into account the desired following distance as well as the optimal velocity, the multi-anticipative model allows longer reaction-time delay in achieving stable traffic flows

Dynamic Bayesian belief network to model the development of walking and cycling schemes

This paper aims to describe a model which represents the formulation of decision-making processes (over a number of years) affecting the step-changes of walking and cycling (WaC) schemes. These processes can be seen as being driven by a number of causal factors, many of which are associated with the attitudes of a variety of factors, in terms of both determining whether any scheme will be implemented and, if it is implemented, the extent to which it is used. The outputs of the model are pathways as to how the future might unfold (in terms of a number of future time steps) with respect to specific pedestrian and cyclist schemes. The transitions of the decision making processes are formulated using a qualitative simulation method, which describes the step-changes of the WaC scheme development. In this article a Bayesian belief network (BBN) theory is extended to model the influence between and within factors in the dynamic decision making process

Visions for a walking and cycling focussed urban transport system

Walking and cycling can make a considerable contribution to sustainable transport goals, building healthier and more sustainable communities and contributing to traffic and pollution reduction. There have been many national and local initiatives to promote walking and cycling, but without a long term vision and consistent strategy it is difficult to see how a significant change may be achieved. This paper presents three alternative visions for the role of walking and cycling in urban areas for the year 2030: each vision illustrates a ‘desirable’ walking- and cycling-oriented transport system against a different ‘exogenous social background’. These visions have been developed through a process of expert discussion and review and are intended to provide a stimulus for debate on the potential for and desirability of such alternative futures. Each is based on the UK and represents a substantial change to the current situation: in particular, each of the visions presents a view of a society where walking and cycling are considerably more important than is currently the case and where these modes cater for a much higher proportion of urban transport needs than at present. The visions show pictures of urban environments where dependence on motor vehicles has been reduced, in two of the visions to very low levels. The methodological approach for devising visions is informed by work on ‘utopian thinking’: a key concept underlying this approach is one of viewing the future in social constructivist terms (i.e. the future is what ‘we’, as a society, make it) rather than considering the future as something that can be ‘scientifically’ predicted by the extrapolation of current trends

Examining queue-jumping phenomenon in heterogeneous traffic stream at signalized intersection using UAV-based data

© 2020, Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature. This research presents an in-depth microscopic analysis of heterogeneous and undisciplined traffic at the signalized intersection. Traffic data extracted from the video recorded using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at an approach of a signalized intersection is analyzed to study the within green time dynamics of traffic flow. Various parameters of Wiedemann 74, Wiedemann 99, and lateral behavior models used in microscopic traffic simulation package, Vissim, are calibrated for the local heterogeneous traffic. This research is aimed at exploring the queue-jumping phenomenon of motorbikes at signalized intersections and its impact on the saturation flow rate, travel time, and delay. The study of within green time flow dynamics shows that the flow of traffic within green time is not uniform. Surprisingly, the results indicate that the traffic flow for the first few seconds of the green time is significantly higher than the remaining period of green time, which shows a contradiction to the fact that traffic flow for the first few seconds is lower due to accelerating vehicles. Mode-wise traffic counted per second shows that this anomaly is attributed to the presence of motorbikes in front of the queue. Consequently, the outputs of simulation results obtained from calibrated Vissim show that the simulated travel time for motorbikes is significantly lower than the field-observed travel times even though the average simulated traffic flow matches accurately with the field-observed traffic flow. The findings of this research highlight the need to incorporate the queue-jumping behavior of motorbikes in the microsimulation packages to enhance their capability to model heterogeneous and undisciplined traffic