What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

BACKGROUND: The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? RESULTS: Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Ricard V Solé, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and Prof. Rob Knight, University of Colorado, Boulder

Erratum to: What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

BACKGROUND: The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? RESULTS: Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Ricard V Solé, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and Prof. Rob Knight, University of Colorado, Boulder

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockström et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development

Personalising screening of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy - qualitative evidence to inform effective implementation

Background Internationally, systematic screening for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) usually includes annual recall. Researchers and policy-makers support extending screening intervals, citing evidence from observational studies with low incidence rates. However, there is little research around the acceptability to people with diabetes (PWD) and health care professionals (HCP) about changing eye screening intervals. Methods We conducted a qualitative study to explore issues surrounding acceptability and the barriers and enablers for changing from annual screening, using in-depth, semi-structured interviews analysed using the constant comparative method. PWD were recruited from general practices and HCPs from eye screening networks and related specialties in North West England using purposive sampling. Interviews were conducted prior to the commencement of and during a randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing fixed annual with variable (6, 12 or 24 month) interval risk-based screening. Results Thirty PWD and 21 HCP participants were interviewed prior to and 30 PWD during the parallel RCT. The data suggests that a move to variable screening intervals was generally acceptable in principle, though highlighted significant concerns and challenges to successful implementation. The current annual interval was recognised as unsustainable against a backdrop of increasing diabetes prevalence. There were important caveats attached to acceptability and a need for clear safeguards around: the safety and reliability of calculating screening intervals, capturing all PWDs, referral into screening of PWDs with diabetic changes regardless of planned interval. For PWDs the 6-month interval was perceived positively as medical reassurance, and the 12-month seen as usual treatment. Concerns were expressed by many HCPs and PWDs that a 2-year interval was too lengthy and was risky for detecting STDR. There were also concerns about a negative effect upon PWD care and increasing non-attendance rates. Amongst PWDs, there was considerable conflation and misunderstanding about different eye-related appointments within the health care system. Conclusions Implementing variable-interval screening into clinical practice is generally acceptable to PWD and HCP with important caveats, and misconceptions must be addressed. Clear safeguards against increasing non-attendance, loss of diabetes control and alternative referral pathways are required. For risk calculation systems to be safe, reliable monitoring and clear communication is required

Maternal obesity support services: a qualitative study of the perspectives of women and midwives

Background - Twenty percent of pregnant women in the UK are obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), reflecting the growing public health challenge of obesity in the 21st century. Obesity increases the risk of adverse outcomes during pregnancy and birth and has significant cost implications for maternity services. Gestational weight management strategies are a high priority; however the evidence for effective, feasible and acceptable weight control interventions is limited and inconclusive. This qualitative study explored the experiences and perceptions of pregnant women and midwives regarding existing support for weight management in pregnancy and their ideas for service development. Methods - A purposive sample of 6 women and 7 midwives from Doncaster, UK, participated in two separate focus groups. Transcripts were analysed thematically. Results - Two overarching themes were identified, 'Explanations for obesity and weight management' and 'Best care for pregnant women'. 'Explanations' included a lack of knowledge about weight, diet and exercise during pregnancy; self-talk messages which excused overeating; difficulties maintaining motivation for a healthy lifestyle; the importance of social support; stigmatisation; and sensitivity surrounding communication about obesity between midwives and their clients. 'Best care' suggested that weight management required care which was consistent and continuous, supportive and non-judgemental, and which created opportunities for interaction and mutual support between obese pregnant women. Conclusions - Women need unambiguous advice regarding healthy lifestyles, diet and exercise in pregnancy to address a lack of knowledge and a tendency towards unhelpful self-talk messages. Midwives expressed difficulties in communicating with their clients about their weight, given awareness that obesity is a sensitive and potentially stigmatising issue. This indicates more could be done to educate and support them in their work with obese pregnant women. Motivation and social support were strong explanatory themes for obesity and weight management, suggesting that interventions should focus on motivational strategies and social support facilitation

Life path analysis: scaling indicates priming effects of social and habitat factors on dispersal distances

1. Movements of many animals along a life-path can be separated into repetitive ones within home ranges and transitions between home ranges. We sought relationships of social and environmental factors with initiation and distance of transition movements in 114 buzzards Buteo buteo that were marked as nestlings with long-life radio tags. 2. Ex-natal dispersal movements of 51 buzzards in autumn were longer than for 30 later in their first year and than 35 extra-natal movements between home ranges after leaving nest areas. In the second and third springs, distances moved from winter focal points by birds that paired were the same or less than for unpaired birds. No post-nuptial movement exceeded 2 km. 3. Initiation of early ex-natal dispersal was enhanced by presence of many sibs, but also by lack of worm-rich loam soils. Distances travelled were greatest for birds from small broods and with relatively little short grass-feeding habitat near the nest. Later movements were generally enhanced by the absence of loam soils and short grassland, especially with abundance of other buzzards and probable poor feeding habitats (heathland, long grass). 4. Buzzards tended to persist in their first autumn where arable land was abundant, but subsequently showed a strong tendency to move from this habitat. 5. Factors that acted most strongly in ½-km buffers round nests, or round subsequent focal points, usually promoted movement compared with factors acting at a larger scale. Strong relationships between movement distances and environmental characteristics in ½-km buffers, especially during early ex-natal dispersal, suggested that buzzards became primed by these factors to travel far. 6. Movements were also farthest for buzzards that had already moved far from their natal nests, perhaps reflecting genetic predisposition, long-term priming or poor habitat beyond the study area

Evolutionary connectionism: algorithmic principles underlying the evolution of biological organisation in evo-devo, evo-eco and evolutionary transitions

The mechanisms of variation, selection and inheritance, on which evolution by natural selection depends, are not fixed over evolutionary time. Current evolutionary biology is increasingly focussed on understanding how the evolution of developmental organisations modifies the distribution of phenotypic variation, the evolution of ecological relationships modifies the selective environment, and the evolution of reproductive relationships modifies the heritability of the evolutionary unit. The major transitions in evolution, in particular, involve radical changes in developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations that instantiate variation, selection and inheritance at a higher level of biological organisation. However, current evolutionary theory is poorly equipped to describe how these organisations change over evolutionary time and especially how that results in adaptive complexes at successive scales of organisation (the key problem is that evolution is self-referential, i.e. the products of evolution change the parameters of the evolutionary process). Here we first reinterpret the central open questions in these domains from a perspective that emphasises the common underlying themes. We then synthesise the findings from a developing body of work that is building a new theoretical approach to these questions by converting well-understood theory and results from models of cognitive learning. Specifically, connectionist models of memory and learning demonstrate how simple incremental mechanisms, adjusting the relationships between individually-simple components, can produce organisations that exhibit complex system-level behaviours and improve the adaptive capabilities of the system. We use the term “evolutionary connectionism” to recognise that, by functionally equivalent processes, natural selection acting on the relationships within and between evolutionary entities can result in organisations that produce complex system-level behaviours in evolutionary systems and modify the adaptive capabilities of natural selection over time. We review the evidence supporting the functional equivalences between the domains of learning and of evolution, and discuss the potential for this to resolve conceptual problems in our understanding of the evolution of developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations and, in particular, the major evolutionary transitions

Standards of care for obsessive–compulsive disorder centres

In recent years, many assessment and care units for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) have been set up in order to detect, diagnose and to properly manage this complex disorder, but there is no consensus regarding the key functions that these units should perform. The International College of Obsessive- Compulsive Spectrum Disorders (ICOCS) together with the Obsessive Compulsive and Related Disorders Network (OCRN) of the European College of Neuropsychopharmacology (ECNP) and the Anxiety and Obsessive Compulsive Disorders Section of the World Psychiaric Association (WPA) has developed a stand- ards of care programme for OCD centres. The goals of this collaborative initiative are promoting basic standards, improving the quality of clinical care and enhance the validity and reliability of research results provided by different facilities and countries

A metastable equilibrium model for the relative abundances of microbial phyla in a hot spring

Many studies link the compositions of microbial communities to their environments, but the energetics of organism-specific biomass synthesis as a function of geochemical variables has rarely been assessed. We describe a thermodynamic model that integrates geochemical and metagenomic data for biofilms sampled at five sites along a thermal and chemical gradient in the outflow channel of the hot spring known as ‘‘Bison Pool’’ in Yellowstone National Park. The relative abundances of major phyla in individual communities sampled along the outflow channel are modeled by computing metastable equilibrium among model proteins with amino acid compositions derived from metagenomic sequences. Geochemical conditions are represented by temperature and activities of basis species, including pH and oxidation-reduction potential quantified as the activity of dissolved hydrogen. By adjusting the activity of hydrogen, the model can be tuned to closely approximate the relative abundances of the phyla observed in the community profiles generated from BLAST assignments. The findings reveal an inverse relationship between the energy demand to form the proteins at equal thermodynamic activities and the abundance of phyla in the community.Although the metabolisms used by many members of these communities are driven by chemical disequilibria, the results support the possibility that higher-level patterns of chemotrophic microbial ecosystems are shaped by metastable equilibrium states that depend on both the composition of biomass and the environmental conditions

Biodiversity in urban gardens: assessing the accuracy of citizen science data on garden hedgehogs

Urban gardens provide a rich habitat for species that are declining in rural areas. However, collecting data in gardens can be logistically-challenging, time-consuming and intrusive to residents. This study examines the potential of citizen scientists to record hedgehog sightings and collect habitat data within their own gardens using an online questionnaire. Focussing on a charismatic species meant that the number of responses was high (516 responses were obtained in 6 weeks, with a ~ 50:50% split between gardens with and without hedgehog sightings). While many factors commonly thought to influence hedgehog presence (e.g. compost heaps) were present in many hedgehog-frequented gardens, they were not discriminatory as they were also found in gardens where hedgehogs were not seen. Respondents were most likely to have seen hedgehogs in their garden if they had also seen hedgehogs elsewhere in their neighbourhood. However, primary fieldwork using hedgehog ‘footprint tunnels’ showed that hedgehogs were found to be just as prevalent in gardens in which hedgehogs had previously been reported as gardens where they had not been reported. Combining these results indicates that hedgehogs may be more common in urban and semi-urban gardens than previously believed, and that casual volunteer records of hedgehogs may be influenced more by the observer than by habitat preferences of the animal. When verified, volunteer records can provide useful information, but care is needed in interpreting these data