Aversion, interpretation and determinability: Three factors of uncertainty that may play a role in psychopathology

This opinion piece considers the construct of tolerance of uncertainty and suggests that it should be viewed in the context of three psychological factors: uncertainty aversion, uncertainty interpretation, and uncertainty determinability. Uncertainty aversion refers to a dislike of situations in which the outcomes are not deterministic and is similar to conventional conceptions of (in)tolerance of uncertainty. Uncertainty interpretation refers to the extent to which variability in an observed outcome is interpreted as random fluctuation around a relatively stable base-rate versus frequent and rapid changes in the base-rate. Uncertainty determinability refers to the (actual or perceived) capacity of the individual to generate any meaningful expectancy of the uncertain outcome, which may be undeterminable if predictions are updated too quickly. We argue that uncertainty interpretation and determinability are psychological responses to the experience of probabilistic events that vary among individuals and can moderate negative affect experienced in response to uncertainty. We describe how individual differences in basic parameters of associative learning (modelled by a simple learning window) could lead to this variation. To explain these hypotheses, we utilise the distinction between aleatory uncertainty (the inherent unpredictability of individual stochastic events) and epistemic uncertainty (obtainable knowledge that the individual lacks or perceives to be lacking). We argue that when expectancies are updated quickly, epistemic uncertainty will dominate the individual’s representation of the events around them, leading to a subjective experience of the world as one that is volatile and unpredictable

Do partial and distributed tests enhance new learning?

Testing facilitates subsequent learning of new information, a phenomenon known as the forward testing effect. The effect is often investigated in multilist procedures, where studied lists are followed by a retrieval test, or a control task such as restudying, and learning is compared on the final list. In most studies of the effect, tests include all material from the preceding list. We report four experiments, three of which were preregistered, to determine whether tests that are partial (not including all studied items) and distributed (including retrieval of items from earlier lists) are effective in enhancing new learning. The results show that testing of all studied material is not necessary to produce beneficial effects on new learning or to reduce intrusions. The beneficial effects of testing were substantially mediated by reduced proactive interference. Importantly, there was minimal evidence that the forward learning benefits of partial and distributed tests are offset by a cost to untested items via retrieval-induced forgetting

Evaluating the conceptual strategy change account of test-potentiated new learning in list recall

Prior testing potentiates new learning, an effect known as test-potentiated new learning (TPNL). Research using lists of related words has established that testing, by free recall, also increases semantic clustering of later recall output. It has been suggested that this is evidence that testing induces a strategy change in encoding and retrieval towards greater conceptual organisation. The current research evaluated whether this conceptual strategy change explains TPNL in three experiments. We found a) that a retrieval task that did not increase semantic clustering (list discrimination) consistently produced TPNL, and b) that factors (word-relatedness and list structure) that influenced the amount of semantic clustering had no effect on the magnitude of TPNL. These results suggest that conceptual strategy change is neither necessary nor sufficient for TPNL and is more likely to be an effect of testing, rather than a cause of TPNL

Characterization of a Novel Small Molecule Subtype Specific Estrogen-Related Receptor α Antagonist in MCF-7 Breast Cancer Cells

The orphan nuclear receptor estrogen-related receptor alpha (ERRalpha) is a member of the nuclear receptor superfamily. It was identified through a search for genes encoding proteins related to estrogen receptor alpha (ERalpha). An endogenous ligand has not been found. Novel ERRalpha antagonists that are highly specific for binding to the ligand binding domain (LBD) of ERRalpha have been recently reported. Research suggests that ERRalpha may be a novel drug target to treat breast cancer and/or metabolic disorders and this has led to an effort to characterize the mechanisms of action of N-[(2Z)-3-(4,5-dihydro-1,3-thiazol-2-yl)-1,3-thiazolidin-2-yl idene]-5H dibenzo[a,d][7]annulen-5-amine, a novel ERRalpha specific antagonist.We demonstrate this ERRalpha ligand inhibits ERRalpha transcriptional activity in MCF-7 cells by luciferase assay but does not affect mRNA levels measured by real-time RT-PCR. Also, ERalpha (ESR1) mRNA levels were not affected upon treatment with the ERRalpha antagonist, but other ERRalpha (ESRRA) target genes such as pS2 (TFF1), osteopontin (SPP1), and aromatase (CYP19A1) mRNA levels decreased. In vitro, the ERRalpha antagonist prevents the constitutive interaction between ERRalpha and nuclear receptor coactivators. Furthermore, we use Western blots to demonstrate ERRalpha protein degradation via the ubiquitin proteasome pathway is increased by the ERRalpha-subtype specific antagonist. We demonstrate by chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) that the interaction between ACADM, ESRRA, and TFF1 endogenous gene promoters and ERRalpha protein is decreased when cells are treated with the ligand. Knocking-down ERRalpha (shRNA) led to similar genomic effects seen when MCF-7 cells were treated with our ERRalpha antagonist.We report the mechanism of action of a novel ERRalpha specific antagonist that inhibits transcriptional activity of ERRalpha, disrupts the constitutive interaction between ERRalpha and nuclear coactivators, and induces proteasome-dependent ERRalpha protein degradation. Additionally, we confirmed that knocking-down ERRalpha lead to similar genomic effects demonstrated in vitro when treated with the ERRalpha specific antagonist

The extent and variability of storm-induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long-term and high-frequency data

The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind-induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long-term and high-frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind- vs. rainstorm-induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28 degrees C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 +/- 2.7 m s(-1), 1 SD) and by 0.15 degrees C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 +/- 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed >= 2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5(th) percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium-depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm-induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typicallyPeer reviewe

Border Insecurity: Reading Transnational Environments in Jim Lynch’s Border Songs

This article applies an eco-critical approach to contemporary American fiction about the Canada-US border, examining Jim Lynch’s portrayal of the British Columbia-Washington borderlands in his 2009 novel Border Songs. It argues that studying transnational environmental actors in border texts—in this case, marijuana, human migrants, and migratory birds—helps illuminate the contingency of political boundaries, problems of scale, and discourses of risk and security in cross-border regions after 9/11. Further, it suggests that widening the analysis of trans-border activity to include environmental phenomena productively troubles concepts of nature and regional belonging in an era of climate change and economic globalization. Cet article propose une lecture écocritique de la fiction étatsunienne contemporaine portant sur la frontière entre le Canada et les États-Unis, en étudiant le portrait donné par Jim Lynch de la région frontalière entre la Colombie-Britannique et Washington dans son roman Border Songs, paru en 2009. L’article soutient que l’étude, dans les textes sur la frontière, des acteurs environnementaux transnationaux – dans ce cas-ci, la marijuana, les migrants humains et les oiseaux migratoires – jette un jour nouveau sur la contingence des limites territoriales politiques, des problèmes d’échelle et des discours sur le risque et la sécurité des régions transfrontalières après les évènements du 11 septembre 2001. Il suggère également qu’en élargissant l’analyse de l’activité transfrontalière pour y inclure les phénomènes environnementaux, on brouille de façon productive les concepts de nature et d’appartenance régionale d’une époque marquée par les changements climatiques et la mondialisation de l’économie

Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature profiles in 153 lakes

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change

Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature profiles in 153 lakes

Measurement(s) : temperature of water, temperature profile Technology Type(s) : digital curation Factor Type(s) : lake location, temporal interval Sample Characteristic - Environment : lake, reservoir Sample Characteristic - Location : global Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14619009Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change

Abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone with or without enzalutamide for patients with metastatic prostate cancer starting androgen deprivation therapy: final results from two randomised phase 3 trials of the STAMPEDE platform protocol

Background: Abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone (herein referred to as abiraterone) or enzalutamide added at the start of androgen deprivation therapy improves outcomes for patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Here, we aimed to evaluate long-term outcomes and test whether combining enzalutamide with abiraterone and androgen deprivation therapy improves survival. Methods: We analysed two open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trials of the STAMPEDE platform protocol, with no overlapping controls, conducted at 117 sites in the UK and Switzerland. Eligible patients (no age restriction) had metastatic, histologically-confirmed prostate adenocarcinoma; a WHO performance status of 0–2; and adequate haematological, renal, and liver function. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using a computerised algorithm and a minimisation technique to either standard of care (androgen deprivation therapy; docetaxel 75 mg/m2 intravenously for six cycles with prednisolone 10 mg orally once per day allowed from Dec 17, 2015) or standard of care plus abiraterone acetate 1000 mg and prednisolone 5 mg (in the abiraterone trial) orally or abiraterone acetate and prednisolone plus enzalutamide 160 mg orally once a day (in the abiraterone and enzalutamide trial). Patients were stratified by centre, age, WHO performance status, type of androgen deprivation therapy, use of aspirin or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, pelvic nodal status, planned radiotherapy, and planned docetaxel use. The primary outcome was overall survival assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in all patients who started treatment. A fixed-effects meta-analysis of individual patient data was used to compare differences in survival between the two trials. STAMPEDE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ISRCTN (ISRCTN78818544). Findings: Between Nov 15, 2011, and Jan 17, 2014, 1003 patients were randomly assigned to standard of care (n=502) or standard of care plus abiraterone (n=501) in the abiraterone trial. Between July 29, 2014, and March 31, 2016, 916 patients were randomly assigned to standard of care (n=454) or standard of care plus abiraterone and enzalutamide (n=462) in the abiraterone and enzalutamide trial. Median follow-up was 96 months (IQR 86–107) in the abiraterone trial and 72 months (61–74) in the abiraterone and enzalutamide trial. In the abiraterone trial, median overall survival was 76·6 months (95% CI 67·8–86·9) in the abiraterone group versus 45·7 months (41·6–52·0) in the standard of care group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·62 [95% CI 0·53–0·73]; p<0·0001). In the abiraterone and enzalutamide trial, median overall survival was 73·1 months (61·9–81·3) in the abiraterone and enzalutamide group versus 51·8 months (45·3–59·0) in the standard of care group (HR 0·65 [0·55–0·77]; p<0·0001). We found no difference in the treatment effect between these two trials (interaction HR 1·05 [0·83–1·32]; pinteraction=0·71) or between-trial heterogeneity (I2 p=0·70). In the first 5 years of treatment, grade 3–5 toxic effects were higher when abiraterone was added to standard of care (271 [54%] of 498 vs 192 [38%] of 502 with standard of care) and the highest toxic effects were seen when abiraterone and enzalutamide were added to standard of care (302 [68%] of 445 vs 204 [45%] of 454 with standard of care). Cardiac causes were the most common cause of death due to adverse events (five [1%] with standard of care plus abiraterone and enzalutamide [two attributed to treatment] and one (<1%) with standard of care in the abiraterone trial). Interpretation: Enzalutamide and abiraterone should not be combined for patients with prostate cancer starting long-term androgen deprivation therapy. Clinically important improvements in survival from addition of abiraterone to androgen deprivation therapy are maintained for longer than 7 years. Funding: Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, Janssen, and Astellas