On the Alcestis and Andromache of Euripides

published or submitted for publicatio

Childhood malaria case incidence in Malawi between 2004 and 2017:Spatio-temporal modelling of climate and non-climate factors

Introduction Malaria transmission is influenced by a complex interplay of factors including climate, socio-economic, environmental factors and interventions. Malaria control efforts across Africa have shown a mixed impact. Climate driven factors may play an increasing role with climate change. Efforts to strengthen routine facility-based monthly malaria data collection across Africa create an increasingly valuable data source to interpret burden trends and monitor control programme progress. A better understanding of the association with other climatic and non-climatic drivers of malaria incidence over time and space may help guide and interpret the impact of interventions. Methods Routine monthly paediatric outpatient clinical malaria case data were compiled from 27 districts in Malawi between 2004 and 2017, and analysed in combination with data on climatic, environmental, socio-economic and interventional factors and district level population estimates. A spatio-temporal generalized linear mixed model was fitted using Bayesian inference, in order to quantify the strength of association of the various risk factors with district-level variation in clinical malaria rates in Malawi, and visualised using maps. Results Between 2004 and 2017 reported childhood clinical malaria case rates showed a slight increase, from 50 to 53 cases per 1000 population, with considerable variation across the country between climatic zones. Climatic and environmental factors, including average monthly air temperature and rainfall anomalies, normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) and RDT use for diagnosis showed a significant relationship with malaria incidence. Temperature in the current month and in each of the 3 months prior showed a significant relationship with the disease incidence unlike rainfall anomaly which was associated with malaria incidence at only three months prior. Estimated risk maps show relatively high risk along the lake and Shire valley regions of Malawi. Conclusion Our modelling approach can identify locations likely to have unusually high or low risk of malaria incidence across Malawi, and distinguishes between contributions to risk that can be explained by measured risk-factors and unexplained residual spatial variation. Also, spatial statistical methods applied to readily available routine data provides an alternative information source that can supplement survey data in policy development and implementation to direct surveillance and intervention efforts

Vitamin D Status and its Association with Morbidity including Wasting and Opportunistic Illnesses in HIV-Infected Women in Tanzania.

Vitamin D has a potential role in preventing HIV-related complications, based on its extensive involvement in immune and metabolic function, including preventing osteoporosis and premature cardiovascular disease. However, this association has not been examined in large studies or in resource-limited settings. Vitamin D levels were assessed in 884 HIV-infected pregnant women at enrollment in a trial of multivitamin supplementation (excluding vitamin D) in Tanzania. Information on HIV related complications was recorded during follow-up (median, 70 months). Proportional hazards models and generalized estimating equations were used to assess the relationship of vitamin D status with these outcomes. Women with low vitamin D status (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D<32 ng/mL) had 43% higher risk of reaching a body mass index (BMI) less than 18 kg/m(2) during the first 2 years of follow-up, compared to women with adequate vitamin D levels (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.43; 95% confidence intervals: [1.03-1.99]). The relationship between continuous vitamin D levels and risk of BMI less than 18 kg/m(2) during follow-up was inverse and linear (p=0.03). Women with low vitamin D levels had significantly higher incidence of acute upper respiratory infections (HR: 1.27 [1.04-1.54]) and thrush (HR: 2.74 [1.29-5.83]) diagnosed during the first 2 years of follow-up. Low vitamin D status was a significant risk factor for wasting and HIV-related complications such as thrush during follow-up in this prospective cohort in Tanzania. If these protective associations are confirmed in randomized trials, vitamin D supplementation could represent a simple and inexpensive method to improve health and quality of life of HIV-infected patients, particularly in resource-limited settings

School-Based Deworming Program Yields Small Improvement in Growth of Zanzibari School Children After one Year.

Efficacy trials of antihelminthic therapies conducted in Africa have reported improvements in children's growth, but nutritional evaluations of large-scale deworming programs are lacking. We evaluated the first-year effect on growth of a school-based deworming program in Zanzibar, where growth retardation occurs in school children. Children in four primary schools were given thrice-yearly mebendazole (500 mg) and compared with children in four schools that received twice-yearly mebendazole and children in four non-program schools. Evaluation schools were randomly selected and allocated to control, twice-yearly or thrice-yearly deworming. Approximately 1000 children in each program group completed the 1-y follow-up. Children <10 y old gained 0.27 kg more weight (P < 0.05) and 0.13 cm more height (P = 0.20) in the twice-yearly group, and 0. 20 kg more weight (P = 0.07) and 0.30 cm more height (P < 0.01) in the thrice-yearly group, compared with the control group. Children <10 y old with higher heights-for-age at baseline had higher weight and height gains in response to deworming. In children >/=10 y old, overall program effects on height or weight gains were not significant. But in this age range, younger boys had significant improvements in height gain with thrice-yearly deworming, and children with higher heights-for-age had greater improvements in weight gain with deworming. We conclude that the deworming program improved the growth of school children, especially children who were younger and less stunted, but the improvements were small. More effective antihelminthic regimens or additional dietary or disease control interventions may be needed to substantially improve the growth of school children in areas such as Zanzibar

Bacterial cell-to-cell signaling promotes the evolution of resistance to parasitic bacteriophages

The evolution of host–parasite interactions could be affected by intraspecies variation between different host and parasite genotypes. Here we studied how bacterial host cell-to-cell signaling affects the interaction with parasites using two bacteria-specific viruses (bacteriophages) and the host bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa that com- municates by secreting and responding to quorum sensing (QS) signal molecules. We found that a QS-signaling proficient strain was able to evolve higher levels of resist- ance to phages during a short-term selection experiment. This was unlikely driven by demographic effects (mutation supply and encounter rates), as nonsignaling strains reached higher population densities in the absence of phages in our selective environ- ment. Instead, the evolved nonsignaling strains suffered relatively higher growth re- duction in the absence of the phage, which could have constrained the phage resistance evolution. Complementation experiments with synthetic signal molecules showed that the Pseudomonas quinolone signal (PQS) improved the growth of nonsignaling bacteria in the presence of a phage, while the activation of las and rhl quorum sensing systems had no effect. Together, these results suggest that QS-signaling can promote the evo- lution of phage resistance and that the loss of QS-signaling could be costly in the pres- ence of phages. Phage–bacteria interactions could therefore indirectly shape the evolution of intraspecies social interactions and PQS-mediated virulence in P. aeruginosa

No Rise in Incidence but Geographical Heterogeneity in the Occurrence of Primary Biliary Cirrhosis in North East England

In this study, we examined temporal changes in the incidence of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and investigated associations between PBC incidence and sociodemographic factors and spatial clustering. We included 982 patients aged ≥40 years from North East England with incident PBC diagnosed during 1987–2003. Age-standardized incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to analyze incidence and socioeconomic deprivation. Clustering analysis was performed using point process methods, testing the null hypothesis that disease risk does not vary spatially and that PBC cases occur independently. The age-standardized incidence rate was 53.50 per million persons per year (95% confidence interval: 48.65, 58.35) in 1987–1994 and 45.09 per million persons per year (95% confidence interval: 41.10, 49.07) in 1995–2003. Risk of PBC increased in areas with higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation (P = 0.035). More specifically, risk increased in areas with higher levels of overcrowded homes (P = 0.040), higher levels of households without cars (P < 0.001), and higher levels of non-owner-occupied homes (P < 0.001). Overall, there was evidence of spatial clustering (P = 0.001). The findings confirm that overall incidence of PBC did not rise over time, but sociodemographic variations suggest that certain aspects of deprivation are involved in its etiology

Perceptions of malaria and acceptance of rapid diagnostic tests and related treatment practises among community members and health care providers in Greater Garissa, North Eastern Province, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Conventional diagnosis of malaria has relied upon either clinical diagnosis or microscopic examination of peripheral blood smears. These methods, if not carried out exactly, easily result in the over- or under-diagnosis of malaria. The reliability and accuracy of malaria RDTs, even in extremely challenging health care settings, have made them a staple in malaria control programmes. Using the setting of a pilot introduction of malaria RDTs in Greater Garissa, North Eastern Province, Kenya, this study aims to identify and understand perceptions regarding malaria diagnosis, with a particular focus on RDTs, and treatment among community members and health care workers (HCWs). METHODS: The study was conducted in five districts of Garissa County. Focus group discussions (FGD) were performed with community members that were recruited from health facilities (HFs) supported by the MENTOR Initiative. In-depth interviews (IDIs) and FGDs with HCWs were also carried out. Interview transcripts were then coded and analysed for major themes. Two researchers reviewed all codes, first separately and then together, discussed the specific categories, and finally characterized, described, and agreed upon major important themes. RESULTS: Thirty-four FGDs were carried out with a range of two to eight participants (median of four). Of 157 community members, 103 (65.6%) were women. The majority of participants were illiterate and the highest level of education was secondary school. Some 76% of participants were of Somali ethnicity. Whilst community members and HCWs demonstrated knowledge of aspects of malaria transmission, prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, gaps and misconceptions were identified. Poor adherence to negative RDT results, unfamiliarity and distrust of RDTs, and an inconsistent RDT supply were the main challenges to become apparent in FGDs and IDIs. CONCLUSION: Gaps in knowledge or incorrect beliefs exist in Greater Garissa and have the potential to act as barriers to complete and correct malaria case management. Addressing these knowledge gaps requires comprehensive education campaigns and a reliable and constant RDT supply. The results of this study highlight education and supply chain as key factors to be addressed in order to make large scale roll out of RDTs as successful and effective as possible

Improving local prevalence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections using a causal debiasing framework.

Funder: Oxford University | Jesus College, University of OxfordFunder: Joint Biosecurity CentreGlobal and national surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology is mostly based on targeted schemes focused on testing individuals with symptoms. These tested groups are often unrepresentative of the wider population and exhibit test positivity rates that are biased upwards compared with the true population prevalence. Such data are routinely used to infer infection prevalence and the effective reproduction number, Rt, which affects public health policy. Here, we describe a causal framework that provides debiased fine-scale spatiotemporal estimates by combining targeted test counts with data from a randomized surveillance study in the United Kingdom called REACT. Our probabilistic model includes a bias parameter that captures the increased probability of an infected individual being tested, relative to a non-infected individual, and transforms observed test counts to debiased estimates of the true underlying local prevalence and Rt. We validated our approach on held-out REACT data over a 7-month period. Furthermore, our local estimates of Rt are indicative of 1-week- and 2-week-ahead changes in SARS-CoV-2-positive case numbers. We also observed increases in estimated local prevalence and Rt that reflect the spread of the Alpha and Delta variants. Our results illustrate how randomized surveys can augment targeted testing to improve statistical accuracy in monitoring the spread of emerging and ongoing infectious disease

A model for leptospire dynamics and control in the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) the reservoir host in urban slum environments

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis that humans can contract via contact with animal reservoirs directly or with water contaminated with their urine. The primary reservoir of pathogenic leptospires within urban slum environments is the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus). Motivated by the annual outbreaks of human leptospirosis in slum urban settings, the within population infection dynamics of the Norway rat were investigated in Pau da Lima, an community in Salvador, Brazil. A mechanistic model of the dynamics of leptospire infection was informed by extensive field and laboratory data was developed and explored analytically. To identify the intraspecific transmission route of most importance, a global sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number to its components was performed. In addition, different methods of rodent control were investigated by calculating target reproduction numbers. Our results suggest environmental transmission plays an important role in the maintenance of infection in the rodent population. To control numbers of wild Norway rats, combinations of controls are recommended but environmental control should also be investigated to reduce prevalence of infection in rats