Cyber-Human Systems, Space Technologies, and Threats

CYBER-HUMAN SYSTEMS, SPACE TECHNOLOGIES, AND THREATS is our eighth textbook in a series covering the world of UASs / CUAS/ UUVs / SPACE. Other textbooks in our series are Space Systems Emerging Technologies and Operations; Drone Delivery of CBNRECy – DEW Weapons: Emerging Threats of Mini-Weapons of Mass Destruction and Disruption (WMDD); Disruptive Technologies with applications in Airline, Marine, Defense Industries; Unmanned Vehicle Systems & Operations On Air, Sea, Land; Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems Technologies and Operations; Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the Cyber Domain: Protecting USA’s Advanced Air Assets, 2nd edition; and Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the Cyber Domain Protecting USA’s Advanced Air Assets, 1st edition. Our previous seven titles have received considerable global recognition in the field. (Nichols & Carter, 2022) (Nichols, et al., 2021) (Nichols R. K., et al., 2020) (Nichols R. , et al., 2020) (Nichols R. , et al., 2019) (Nichols R. K., 2018) (Nichols R. K., et al., 2022)https://newprairiepress.org/ebooks/1052/thumbnail.jp

Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting

Exchange rate predictability in a changing world

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world, however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using Taylor rules with Time-Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. Focusing on the data from the crisis, we improve upon the random walk for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the TVP of the Taylor rules to differ between countries

Influence of surface atomic structure demonstrated on oxygen incorporation mechanism at a model perovskite oxide

Perovskite oxide surfaces catalyze oxygen exchange reactions that are crucial for fuel cells, electrolyzers, and thermochemical fuel synthesis. Here, by bridging the gap between surface analysis with atomic resolution and oxygen exchange kinetics measurements, we demonstrate how the exact surface atomic structure can determine the reactivity for oxygen exchange reactions on a model perovskite oxide. Two precisely controlled surface reconstructions with (4 × 1) and (2 × 5) symmetry on 0.5 wt.% Nb-doped SrTiO3(110) were subjected to isotopically labeled oxygen exchange at 450 °C. The oxygen incorporation rate is three times higher on the (4 × 1) surface phase compared to the (2 × 5). Common models of surface reactivity based on the availability of oxygen vacancies or on the ease of electron transfer cannot account for this difference. We propose a structure-driven oxygen exchange mechanism, relying on the flexibility of the surface coordination polyhedra that transform upon dissociation of oxygen molecules.Austrian Science Fund (SFB “ Functional Oxide Surfaces and Interfaces ” - FOXSI, Project F 45)European Research Council Advanced Grant (“OxideSurfaces” (Project ERC-2011-ADG_20110209))National Science Foundation (U.S.). Division of Materials Research (CAREER Award Grant No. 1055583