A record-linkage study of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in persons with hepatitis C infection in Scotland

We investigated trends in first time hospital admissions and deaths attributable to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a large population based cohort of 22 073 individuals diagnosed with hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection through laboratory testing in Scotland in 1991 2006. We identified new cases of HCC through record linkage to the national inpatient hospital discharge database and deaths registry. A total of 172 persons diagnosed with HCV were admitted to hospital or died with first time mention of HCC. Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence increased between 1996 and 2006 (average annual change of 6.1, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.9 11.6%, P¼0.021). The adjusted relative risk of HCC was greater for males (hazard ratio¼2.7, 95% CI: 1.7 4.2), for those aged 60 years or older (hazard ratio ¼2.7, 95% CI: 1.9 4.1) compared with 50 59 years, and for those with a previous alcohol related hospital admission (hazard ratio¼2.5, 95% CI: 1.7 3.7). The risk of individuals diagnosed with HCV developing HCC was greatlyincreased compared with the general Scottish population (standardised incidence ratio¼127, 95% CI: 102 156). Owing to the advancing age of the Scottish HCV diagnosed population, the annual number of HCC cases is projected to increase, with a consequent increasing burden on the public healthcare system

Risk Factors for Hepatitis C Virus Transmission to Health Care Workers after Occupational Exposure: A European Case-Control Study

Background. Additional studies are required to identify risk factors for hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission to health care workers after occupational exposure to HCV. Methods. We conducted a matched case-control study in 5 European countries from 1 January 1991 through 31 December 2002. Case patients were health care workers who experienced seroconversion after percutaneous or mucocutaneous exposure to HCV. Control subjects were HCV-exposed health care workers who did not experience seroconversion and were matched with case patients for center and period of exposure. Results. Sixty case patients and 204 control subjects were included in the study. All case patients were exposed to HCV-infected fluids through percutaneous injuries. The 37 case patients for whom information was available were exposed to viremic source patients. As risk factors for HCV infection, multivariate analysis identified needle placement in a source patient's vein or artery (odds ratio [OR], 100.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3-1365.7), deep injury (OR, 155.2; 95% CI, 7.1-3417.2), and sex of the health care worker (OR for male vs. female, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-10.0). Source patient HCV load was not introduced in the multivariate model. In unmatched univariate analysis, the risk of HCV transmission increased 11-fold for health care workers exposed to source patients with a viral load >6 log10 copies/mL (95% CI, 1.1-114.1), compared with exposures to source patients with a viral load ⩽4 log10 copies/mL. Conclusion. In this study, HCV occupational transmission was found to occur after percutaneous exposures. The risk of HCV transmission after percutaneous exposure increased with deep injuries and procedures involving hollow-bore needle placement in the source patient's vein or artery. These results highlight the need for widespread adoption of needlestick-prevention devices in health care settings, together with other preventive measure

Routine HIV Screening in France: Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness

BACKGROUND. In France, roughly 40,000 HIV-infected persons are unaware of their HIV infection. Although previous studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of routine HIV screening in the United States, differences in both the epidemiology of infection and HIV testing behaviors warrant a setting-specific analysis for France. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. We estimated the life expectancy (LE), cost and cost-effectiveness of alternative HIV screening strategies in the French general population and high-risk sub-populations using a computer model of HIV detection and treatment, coupled with French national clinical and economic data. We compared risk-factor-based HIV testing ("current practice") to universal routine, voluntary HIV screening in adults aged 18-69. Screening frequencies ranged from once to annually. Input data included mean age (42 years), undiagnosed HIV prevalence (0.10%), annual HIV incidence (0.01%), test acceptance (79%), linkage to care (75%) and cost/test (€43). We performed sensitivity analyses on HIV prevalence and incidence, cost estimates, and the transmission benefits of ART. "Current practice" produced LEs of 242.82 quality-adjusted life months (QALM) among HIV-infected persons and 268.77 QALM in the general population. Adding a one-time HIV screen increased LE by 0.01 QALM in the general population and increased costs by €50/person, for a cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of €57,400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). More frequent screening in the general population increased survival, costs and CERs. Among injection drug users (prevalence 6.17%; incidence 0.17%/year) and in French Guyana (prevalence 0.41%; incidence 0.35%/year), annual screening compared to every five years produced CERs of €51,200 and €46,500/QALY. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE. One-time routine HIV screening in France improves survival compared to "current practice" and compares favorably to other screening interventions recommended in Western Europe. In higher-risk groups, more frequent screening is economically justifiable.Haute Autorite de Sante; the Institut de Veille Sanitaire; Sidaction; the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les hepatites virales; the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01 AI042006, K24 AI062476, P30 AI42851); the National Institute of Mental Health (R01 MH65869); the National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01 DA015612

Cost-effectiveness of HBV and HCV screening strategies:a systematic review of existing modelling techniques

Introduction: Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods: A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results: The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion: When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers

Twenty Years of Hepatitis C in the Treviso District (Local Health Unit 2): Treatments, Clinical Management and Cost Analysis

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem, and about 10-30% of patients develop cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma several years after being infected. In past decades, treatment of HCV infection was based on peginterferon and ribavirin, which lead to a sustained virologic response (SVR) in only 50-60% of patients. Since 2014, direct acting antiviral (DAA) agents have been available. Patients administered DAA agents usually reach SVR in 12 weeks. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost analysis of these innovative drugs while also taking into account the total health expenditure for managing HCV infection. The pharmaceutical and hospitalisation databases of the Local Health Unit (ULSS2) of Treviso were retrospectively analysed between 1997 and 2016 for each HCV patient. During this twenty-year period, people affected by HCV totalled 2,949; 277 of these patients were treated with DAA and, of these, only 2% did not reach SVR. The HCV genotype 1b was the most common, accounting for 58% of the total patients. The treatment for HCV genotype 3 was associated with higher costs. The expenses for the new treatments were found to be significantly higher compared to those for the old ones (i.e., peginterferon and ribavirin). The average costs for a cycle of therapy were €8,000 and €24,000 for interferon and DAA therapy, respectively. Total health care costs associated with HCV (excluding DAA treatments) for an individual HCV infection patient were estimated to be €32,000. Our results confirm the high efficacy of DAA therapy. Furthermore, these agents improve the clinical conditions and reduce both the treatment cost and health care in patients with HCV infection

Securing sustainable funding for viral hepatitis elimination plans

The majority of people infected with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the European Union (EU) remain undiagnosed and untreated. During recent years, immigration to EU has further increased HCV prevalence. It has been estimated that, out of the 4.2 million adults affected by HCV infection in the 31 EU/ European Economic Area (EEA) countries, as many as 580\xC2\xA0000 are migrants. Additionally, HCV is highly prevalent and under addressed in Eastern Europe. In 2013, the introduction of highly effective treatments for HCV with direct-acting antivirals created an unprecedented opportunity to cure almost all patients, reduce HCV transmission and eliminate the disease. However, in many settings, HCV elimination poses a serious challenge for countries' health spending. On 6 June 2018, the Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association held the 2nd EU HCV Policy summit. It was emphasized that key stakeholders should work collaboratively since only a few countries in the EU are on track to achieve HCV elimination by 2030. In particular, more effort is needed for universal screening. The micro-elimination approach in specific populations is less complex and less costly than country-wide elimination programmes and is an important first step in many settings. Preliminary data suggest that implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis can be cost saving. However, innovative financing mechanisms are needed to raise funds upfront for scaling up screening, treatment and harm reduction interventions that can lead to HCV elimination by 2030, the stated goal of the WHO

Progression of Biopsy-Measured Liver Fibrosis in Untreated Patients with Hepatitis C Infection: Non-Markov Multistate Model Analysis

BACKGROUND: Fibrosis stages from liver biopsies reflect liver damage from hepatitis C infection, but analysis is challenging due to their ordered but non-numeric nature, infrequent measurement, misclassification, and unknown infection times. METHODS: We used a non-Markov multistate model, accounting for misclassification, with multiple imputation of unknown infection times, applied to 1062 participants of whom 159 had multiple biopsies. Odds ratios (OR) quantified the estimated effects of covariates on progression risk at any given time. RESULTS: Models estimated that progression risk decreased the more time participants had already spent in the current stage, African American race was protective (OR 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.95, p = 0.018), and older current age increased risk (OR 1.33 per decade, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.54, p = 0.0002). When controlled for current age, older age at infection did not appear to increase risk (OR 0.92 per decade, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 1.79, p = 0.80). There was a suggestion that co-infection with human immunodeficiency virus increased risk of progression in the era of highly active antiretroviral treatment beginning in 1996 (OR 2.1, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 4.4, p = 0.059). Other examined risk factors may influence progression risk, but evidence for or against this was weak due to wide confidence intervals. The main results were essentially unchanged using different assumed misclassification rates or imputation of age of infection. DISCUSSION: The analysis avoided problems inherent in simpler methods, supported the previously suspected protective effect of African American race, and suggested that current age rather than age of infection increases risk. Decreasing risk of progression with longer time already spent in a stage was also previously found for post-transplant progression. This could reflect varying disease activity, with recent progression indicating active disease and high risk, while longer time already spent in a stage indicates quiescent disease and low risk

Systematic review of cost and cost-effectiveness of different TB-screening strategies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) for TB have the potential to replace the tuberculin skin test (TST) in screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). The higher per-test cost of IGRAs may be compensated for by lower post-screening costs (medical attention, chest x-rays and chemoprevention), given the higher specificity of the new tests as compared to that of the conventional TST. We conducted a systematic review of all publications that have addressed the cost or cost-effectiveness of IGRAs. The objective of this report was to undertake a structured review and critical appraisal of the methods used for the model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of TB screening programmes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using Medline and Embase, 75 publications that contained the terms "IGRA", "tuberculosis" and "cost" were identified. Of these, 13 were original studies on the costs or cost-effectiveness of IGRAs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 13 relevant studies come from five low-to-medium TB-incidence countries. Five studies took only the costs of screening into consideration, while eight studies analysed the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies. Screening was performed in high-risk groups: close contacts, immigrants from high-incidence countries and healthcare workers. Two studies used the T-SPOT.TB as an IGRA and the other studies used the QuantiFERON-TB Gold and/or Gold In-Tube test. All 13 studies observed a decrease in costs when the IGRAs were used. Six studies compared the use of an IGRA as a test to confirm a positive TST (TST/IGRA strategy) to the use of an IGRA-only strategy. In four of these studies, the two-step strategy and in two the IGRA-only strategy was more cost-effective. Assumptions about TST specificity and progression risk after a positive test had the greatest influence on determining which IGRA strategy was more cost-effective.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The available studies on cost-effectiveness provide strong evidence in support of the use of IGRAs in screening risk groups such as HCWs, immigrants from high-incidence countries and close contacts. So far, only two studies provide evidence that the IGRA-only screening strategy is more cost-effective.</p

Incidence and determinants of new AIDS-defining illnesses after HAART initiation in a Senegalese cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although a dramatic decrease in AIDS progression has been observed after Highly Active Anti Retroviral Therapy (HAART) in both low- and high-resource settings, few data support that fact in low-resource settings.</p> <p>This study describes the incidence of AIDS-defining illnesses (ADI) after HAART initiation and analyzes their risk factors in a low-resource setting. A focus was put on CD4 cell counts and viral load measurements.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>404 HIV-1-infected Senegalese adult patients were enrolled in a prospective observational cohort and data censored as of April 2008. A Poisson regression was used to model the incidence of ADIs over two periods and to assess its association with baseline variables, current CD4, current viral load, CD4 response, and virological response.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ADI incidence declined from 20.5 ADIs per 100 person-years, 95% CI = [16.3;25.8] during the first year to 4.3, 95% CI = [2.3;8.1] during the fourth year but increased afterwards. Before 42 months, the decrease was greater in patients with clinical stage CDC-C at baseline and with a viral load remaining below 1000 cp/mL but was uniform across CD4 strata (p = 0.1). After 42 months, 293 patients were still at risk. The current CD4 and viral load were associated with ADI incidence (decrease of 21% per 50 CD4/mm³and of 61% for patients with a viral load < 1000 cp/mL).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>During the first four years, a uniform decline of ADI incidence was observed even in patients with low CD4-cell counts at HAART initiation as long as the viral load remained undetectable. An increase was noted later in patients with immunologic and virological failures but also in patients with only virological failure.</p

Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

BackgroundChronic hepatitis C virus infection is prevalent and often causes hepatic fibrosis, which can progress to cirrhosis and cause liver cancer or liver failure. Study of fibrosis progression often relies on imputing the time of infection, often as the reported age of first injection drug use. We sought to examine the accuracy of such imputation and implications for modeling factors that influence progression rates.MethodsWe analyzed cross-sectional data on hepatitis C antibody status and reported risk factor histories from two large studies, the Women’s Interagency HIV Study and the Urban Health Study, using modern survival analysis methods for current status data to model past infection risk year by year. We compared fitted distributions of past infection risk to reported age of first injection drug use.ResultsAlthough injection drug use appeared to be a very strong risk factor, models for both studies showed that many subjects had considerable probability of having been infected substantially before or after their reported age of first injection drug use. Persons reporting younger age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected after, and persons reporting older age of first injection drug use were more likely to have been infected before.ConclusionsIn studies of fibrosis progression, modern methods such as multiple imputation should be used to account for the substantial uncertainty about when infection occurred. The models presented here can provide the inputs needed by such methods. Using reported age of first injection drug use as the time of infection in studies of fibrosis progression is likely to produce a spuriously strong association of younger age of infection with slower rate of progression