Preliminary signs of the initiation of deep convection by GNSS

This study reports on the exploitation of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and a new potential application for weather forecasts and nowcasting. We focus on GPS observations (post-processing with a time resolution of 5 and 15 min and fast calculations with a time resolution of 5 min) and try to establish typical configurations of the water vapour field which characterise convective systems and particularly which supply precursors of their initiation are associated with deep convection. We show the critical role of GNSS horizontal gradients of the water vapour content to detect small scale structures of the troposphere (i. e. convective cells), and then we present our strategy to obtain typical water vapour configurations by GNSS called "H2O alert". These alerts are based on a dry/wet contrast taking place during a 30 min time window before the initiation of a convective system. GNSS observations have been assessed for the rainfall event of 28-29 June 2005 using data from the Belgian dense network (baseline from 5 to 30 km). To validate our GNSS H2O alerts, we use the detection of precipitation by C-band weather radar and thermal infrared radiance (cloud top temperature) of the 10.8-micrometers channel [Ch09] of SEVIRI instrument on Meteosat Second Generation. Using post-processed measurements, our H2O alerts obtain a score of about 80 %. Final and ultra-rapid IGS (International GNSS Service) orbits have been tested and show equivalent results. Fast calculations (less than 10 min) have been processed for 29 June 2005 with a time resolution of 5 min. The mean bias (and standard deviation) between fast and reference post-processed ZTD (zenith total delay) and gradients are, respectively, 0.002 (+/- 0.008) m and 0.001 (+/- 0.004) m. The score obtained for the H2O alerts generated by fast calculations is 65 %

Quantitative rainfall analysis of the 2021 mid-July flood event in Belgium

The exceptional flood of July 2021 in central Europe impacted Belgium severely. As rainfall was the triggering factor of this event, this study aims to characterize rainfall amounts in Belgium from 13 to 16 July 2021 based on two types of observational data. First, observations recorded by high-quality rain gauges operated by weather and hydrological services in Belgium have been compiled and quality checked. Second, a radar-based rainfall product has been improved to provide a reliable estimation of quantitative precipitation at high spatial and temporal resolutions over Belgium. Several analyses of these data are performed here to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the event. These analyses indicate that the rainfall accumulations during the event reached unprecedented levels over large areas. Accumulations over durations from 1 to 3 d significantly exceeded the 200-year return level in several places, with up to 90 % of exceedance over the 200-year return level for 2 and 3 d values locally in the Vesdre Basin. Such a record-breaking event needs to be documented as much as possible, and available observational data must be shared with the scientific community for further studies in hydrology, in urban planning and, more generally, in all multi-disciplinary studies aiming to identify and understand factors leading to such disaster. The corresponding rainfall data are therefore provided freely in a supplement (Journée et al., 2023; Goudenhoofdt et al., 2023).</p

Exploring the use of underground gravity monitoring to evaluate radar estimates of heavy rainfall

The radar-based estimation of intense precipitation produced by convective storms is a challenging task and the verification through comparison with gauges is questionable due to the very high spatial variability of such types of precipitation. In this study, we explore the potential benefit of using a superconducting gravimeter as a new source of in situ observations for the evaluation of radar-based precipitation estimates. The superconducting gravimeter used in this study is installed in Membach (BE), 48&thinsp;m underneath the surface, at 85&thinsp;km distance from a C-band weather radar located in Wideumont (BE). The 15-year observation record 2003–2017 is available for both gravimeter and radar with 1 and 5&thinsp;min time steps, respectively. Water mass increase at ground due to precipitation results in a decrease in underground measured gravity. The gravimeter integrates soil water in a radius of about 400&thinsp;m around the instrument. This allows capture of rainfall at a larger spatial scale than traditional rain gauges. The precision of the gravimeter is a few tenths of nm&thinsp;s−2, 1&thinsp;nm&thinsp;s−2 corresponding to 2.6&thinsp;mm of water. The comparison of reflectivity and gravity time series shows that short-duration intense rainfall events produce a rapid decrease in the underground measured gravity. A remarkable correspondence between radar and gravimeter time series is found. The precipitation amounts derived from gravity measurements and from radar observations are further compared for 505 rainfall events. A correlation coefficient of 0.58, a mean bias (radar–gravimeter)/gravimeter of 0.24 and a mean absolute difference (MAD) of 3.19&thinsp;mm are obtained. A better agreement is reached when applying a hail correction by truncating reflectivity values to a given threshold. No bias, a correlation coefficient of 0.64 and a MAD of 2.3&thinsp;mm are reached using a 48&thinsp;dBZ threshold. The added value of underground gravity measurements as a verification dataset is discussed. The two main benefits are the spatial scale at which precipitation is captured and the interesting property that gravity measurements are directly influenced by water mass at ground no matter the type of precipitation: hail or rain.</p

Electronic structure of the strongly hybridized ferromagnet CeFe2

We report on results from high-energy spectroscopic measurements on CeFe2, a system of particular interest due to its anomalous ferromagnetism with an unusually low Curie temperature and small magnetization compared to the other rare earth-iron Laves phase compounds. Our experimental results indicate very strong hybridization of the Ce 4f states with the delocalized band states, mainly the Fe 3d states. In the interpretation and analysis of our measured spectra, we have made use of two different theoretical approaches: The first one is based on the Anderson impurity model, with surface contributions explicitly taken into account. The second method consists of band-structure calculations for bulk CeFe2. The analysis based on the Anderson impurity model gives calculated spectra in good agreement with the whole range of measured spectra, and reveals that the Ce 4f -- Fe 3d hybridization is considerably reduced at the surface, resulting in even stronger hybridization in the bulk than previously thought. The band-structure calculations are ab initio full-potential linear muffin-tin orbital calculations within the local-spin-density approximation of the density functional. The Ce 4f electrons were treated as itinerant band electrons. Interestingly, the Ce 4f partial density of states obtained from the band-structure calculations also agree well with the experimental spectra concerning both the 4f peak position and the 4f bandwidth, if the surface effects are properly taken into account. In addition, results, notably the partial spin magnetic moments, from the band-structure calculations are discussed in some detail and compared to experimental findings and earlier calculations.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev. B in December 200

A preliminary investigation of radar rainfall estimation in the Ardennes region and a first hydrological application for the Ourthe catchment

This paper presents a first assessment of the hydrometeorological potential of a C-band doppler weather radar recently installed by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium near the village of Wideumont in the southern Ardennes region. An analysis of the vertical profile of reflectivity for two contrasting rainfall events confirms the expected differences between stratiform and convective precipitation. The mean areal rainfall over the Ourthe catchment upstream of Tabreux estimated from the Wideumont weather radar using the standard Marshall-Palmer reflectivity-rain rate relation shows biases between +128% and -42% for six selected precipitation events. For two rainfall events the radar-estimated mean areal rainfall is applied to the gauge-calibrated (lumped) HBV-model for the Ourthe upstream of Tabreux, resulting in a significant underestimation with respect to the observed discharge for one event and a closer match for another. A bootstrap analysis using the radar data reveals that the uncertainty in the hourly discharge from the ~1600km2} catchment associated with the sampling uncertainty of the mean areal rainfall estimated from 10 rain gauges evenly spread over the catchment amounts to ±25% for the two events analyzed. This uncertainty is shown to be of the same order of magnitude as that associated with the model variables describing the initial state of the mode

Population Dynamics of the Critically Endangered\ud Golden Lancehead Pitviper, Bothrops insularis: Stability\ud or Decline?

Little is known about vital rates of snakes generally because of the difficulty in collecting data. Here we used a robust design\ud mark-recapture model to estimate survival, behavioral effects on capture probability, temporary emigration, abundance and\ud test the hypothesis of population decline in the golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis, an endemic and critically\ud endangered species from southeastern Brazil. We collected data at irregular intervals over ten occasions from 2002 to 2010.\ud Survival was slightly higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Temporal emigration was high, indicating the\ud importance of accounting for this parameter both in the sampling design and modeling. No behavioral effects were\ud detected on capture probability. We detected an average annual population decrease (l= 0.93, CI = 0.47–1.38) during the\ud study period, but estimates included high uncertainty, and caution in interpretation is needed. We discuss the potential\ud effects of the illegal removal of individuals and the implications of the vital rates obtained for the future persistence and\ud conservation of this endemic, endangered species

First order phase transition from ferromagnetism to antiferromagnetism in Ce(Fe0.96_{0.96}Al0.04_{0.04})2_2

Taking the pseudobinary C15 Laves phase compound Ce(Fe$_{0.96}$Al$_{0.04}$)$_2$ as a paradigm for studying a ferromagnetic to antiferromagnetic phase transition, we present interesting thermomagnetic history effects in magnetotransport as well as magnetisation measurements across this phase transition. A comparison is made with history effects observed across the ferromagnetic to antiferromagnetic transition in R$_{0.5}$Sr$_{0.5}$MnO$_3$ crystals.Comment: 11 pages of text and 4 figures; submitted to Physical Review Letter

Bird migration flight altitudes studied by a network of operational weather radars

A fully automated method for the detection and quantification of bird migration was developed for operational C-band weather radar, measuring bird density, speed and direction as a function of altitude. These weather radar bird observations have been validated with data from a high-accuracy dedicated bird radar, which was stationed in the measurement volume of weather radar sites in The Netherlands, Belgium and France for a full migration season during autumn 2007 and spring 2008. We show that weather radar can extract near real-time bird density altitude profiles that closely correspond to the density profiles measured by dedicated bird radar. Doppler weather radar can thus be used as a reliable sensor for quantifying bird densities aloft in an operational setting, which—when extended to multiple radars—enables the mapping and continuous monitoring of bird migration flyways. By applying the automated method to a network of weather radars, we observed how mesoscale variability in weather conditions structured the timing and altitude profile of bird migration within single nights. Bird density altitude profiles were observed that consisted of multiple layers, which could be explained from the distinct wind conditions at different take-off sites. Consistently lower bird densities are recorded in The Netherlands compared with sites in France and eastern Belgium, which reveals some of the spatial extent of the dominant Scandinavian flyway over continental Europe

Roflumilast in moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treated with longacting bronchodilators: two randomised clinical trials

Background Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have few options for treatment. The efficacy and safety of the phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor roflumilast have been investigated in studies of patients with moderate-to-severe COPD, but not in those concomitantly treated with longacting inhaled bronchodilators. The effect of roflumilast on lung function in patients with COPD that is moderate to severe who are already being treated with salmeterol or tiotropium was investigated. Methods In two double-blind, multicentre studies done in an outpatient setting, after a 4-week run-in, patients older than 40 years with moderate-to-severe COPD were randomly assigned to oral roflumilast 500 mu g or placebo once a day for 24 weeks, in addition to salmeterol (M2-127 study) or tiotropium (M2-128 study). The primary endpoint was change in prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV(1)). Analysis was by intention to treat. The studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00313209 for M2-127, and NCT00424268 for M2-128. Findings In the salmeterol plus roflumilast trial, 466 patients were assigned to and treated with roflumilast and 467 with placebo; in the tiotropium plus roflumilast trial, 371 patients were assigned to and treated with roflumilast and 372 with placebo. Compared with placebo, roflumilast consistently improved mean prebronchodilator FEV(1) by 49 mL (p<0.0001) in patients treated with salmeterol, and 80 mL (p<0.0001) in those treated with tiotropium. Similar improvement in postbronchodilator FEV(1) was noted in both groups. Furthermore, roflumilast had beneficial effects on other lung function measurements and on selected patient-reported outcomes in both groups. Nausea, diarrhoea, weight loss, and, to a lesser extent, headache were more frequent in patients in the roflumilast groups. These adverse events were associated with increased patient withdrawal. Interpretation Roflumilast improves lung function in patients with COPD treated with salmeterol or tiotropium, and could become an important treatment for these patients