The effect of spatial position of calorie information on choice, consumption and attention. ESRI WP615, February 2019

We report a “lab-in-the-field” experiment designed to test the impact of posting calories on menus. The study adds substantially to previous work by testing different spatial arrangements of price and calorie information. Choices were real, not hypothetical, and participants were unaware that their lunch choice was part of a study, even though their eye-movements were being tracked. Participants exposed to calorie information ordered 93 fewer calories (11%) relative to a control group. The impact was strongest when calorie information was presented on menus just to the right of the price, in an equivalent font. The difference in number of calories consumed was greater still. These effects were mediated by knowledge of the amount of calories in the meal, implying that calorie posting led to more informed decision making. There was no impact on enjoyment of the meal. Eye-tracking data suggested that this arrangement altered the decision process such that greater decision weight was given to calorie content

An experimental study of attitudes to changing water charges in Scotland. ESRI Working Paper No.654 March 2020

If an aim of a regulatory body is to act on behalf of the views of its citizenry, then it is important to understand what those views are. This paper, in collaboration with the OECD and the Scottish water industry, presents the results of an online (n= 500) and face-to-face laboratory (n= 100) study that utilised experimental behavioural science to explore how the provision and presentation of future price change information influences Scottish citizens’ acceptance of water price changes. Participants were asked to rate different patterns of price rises for their water charges. The pattern, presentation, magnitude of price rises and the provision of additional cost information (designed to simplify the calculations of future costs) was manipulated across tasks and participants. Results from this study suggest that Scottish citizens are generally accepting of price rises in the short and medium terms. However, the patterns of price rises, and the way in which information is presented, can influence these attitudes, suggesting that consumers do not always accurately integrate sequential price rises over time. Findings from this study are designed to inform the regulatory process of the Scottish water industry and highlight the potential role of behavioural science in regulation more generally

Underestimation of money growth and pensions: Experimental investigations. ESRI WP611, February 2019

People underestimate long-term growth in savings because they linearise exponential growth – a phenomenon known as exponential growth bias (EGB). This bias has implications for multiple financial decisions, particularly those relating to pensions. We hypothesised that underestimation might be even more severe for regular savings relative to lump sums, because savers need also to estimate accumulation. The additional cognitive load could strengthen EGB, or individuals might underestimate accumulation in addition to EGB. Four experiments investigated: (1) whether underestimation of money growth is greater for long streams of regular savings than for lump sums; (2) whether underestimation occurs when questions are framed intuitively as the cost of delaying starting a pension; and (3) whether practice with a calculator designed to illustrate the cost of delay attenuates underestimation. Individuals were more likely to underestimate money growth from regular savings than from lump sums, because they failed to accumulate contributions in addition to displaying EGB. Underestimation was substantial and persistent. Practice with a calculator partially attenuated underestimation, primarily among individuals with higher educational attainment and without a pension. Overall, these findings imply that across multiple judgements, decisions and frames, individuals substantially underestimate money growth, reducing the attractiveness of saving

The framing of options for retirement: Experimental tests for policy. ESRI WP604, December 2018

We hypothesise and confirm a substantial framing effect in relation to whether people opt for an annuity on retirement. Two laboratory experiments were conducted in collaboration with a national pensions regulator. Individuals demanded a higher annuity rate when pensions were initially conceived of as an accumulated lump sum – a “nest egg” or “pension pot” – than when they were initially conceived of as retirement income. The effect was recorded using both a matching and a choice procedure. Effect sizes implied more than a doubling of demand for annuities at market rates. While mindful of the need for caution in generalising from hypothetical laboratory studies, the findings have potentially strong policy implications. The framing of pension products in marketing materials and disclosures may have substantial effects on financial risks borne in later life

Interventions to increase physical activity: An analysis of candidate behavioural mechanisms

Physical inactivity is a significant driver of health and social inequalities, particularly affecting socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. This poses a major challenge to policymakers worldwide. Despite the large volume of original research and reviews that focus on the design and evaluation of interventions to increase physical activity, there remains little consensus on which interventions are likely to work. This paper discusses physical activity interventions through the lens of behavioural science. We consider the conclusions drawn by previous reviews of this literature and link them to potential behavioural mechanisms that might explain them. We categorise interventions into three broad types: physical environment, information provision and social context, and discuss specific components within each that are known to influence behaviour. The paper is not a systematic nor an exhaustive review. The recommendations are not for implementation without testing. Rather, the paper contributes an analysis of how existing evidence can be used to design research and interventions in future to test not just the main outcome, but the behavioural mechanisms that may determine success

Improving the management of hospital waiting lists by using nudges in letters: a randomised controlled trial

Objective: A commonly adopted intervention to help to reduce wait times for hospital treatment is administrative validation, where administrators write to patients to check if a procedure is still required. The did not return (DNR) rate to validation letters is substantial. We tested whether the DNR rate was reduced by introducing nudges to validation letters. Methods: Participants from eight public hospitals (N = 2855; in 2017) in Ireland were randomized to receive an existing (control group) or a redesigned validation letter including nudges (intervention group). Results: Participants in the intervention group were less likely not to return it than those in the control group, OR =.756, SE =.069, p =.002. Control and intervention group DNR rates were 23.97% and 19.24%. This is equivalent to 1 in 5 non-responders changing their behaviour because of the redesigned letter. Conclusions: The redesigned letter increased patient compliance with the validation process. The redesign has subsequently been adopted by public hospitals in Ireland

Mild cognitive decline. A position statement of the Cognitive Decline Group of the European Innovation Partnership for Active and Healthy Ageing (EIPAHA)

Introduction Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a term used to describe a level of decline in cognition which is seen as an intermediate stage between normal ageing and dementia, and which many consider to be a prodromal stage of neurodegeneration that may become dementia. That is, it is perceived as a high risk level of cognitive change. The increasing burden of dementia in our society, but also our increasing understanding of its risk factors and potential interventions, require diligent management of MCI in order to find strategies that produce effective prevention of dementia. Aim To update knowledge regarding mild cognitive impairment, and to bring together and appraise evidence about the main features of clinical interest: definitions, prevalence and stability, risk factors, screening, and management and intervention. Methods Literature review and consensus of expert opinion. Results and conclusion MCI describes a level of impairment in which deteriorating cognitive functions still allow for reasonable independent living, including some compensatory strategies. While there is evidence for some early risk factors, there is still a need to more precisely delineate and distinguish early manifestations of frank dementia from cognitive impairment that is less likely to progress to dementia, and furthermore to develop improved prospective evidence for positive response to intervention. An important limitation derives from the scarcity of studies that take MCI as an endpoint. Strategies for effective management suffer from the same limitation, since most studies have focused on dementia. Behavioural changes may represent the most cost-effective approach

Negative perceptions of aging and decline in walking speed: A self-fulfilling prophecy

Introduction Walking speed is a meaningful marker of physical function in the aging population. While it is a primarily physical measure, experimental studies have shown that merely priming older adults with negative stereotypes about aging results in immediate declines in objective walking speed. What is not clear is whether this is a temporary experimental effect or whether negative aging stereotypes have detrimental effects on long term objective health. We sought to explore the association between baseline negative perceptions of aging in the general population and objective walking speed 2 years later. Method 4,803 participations were assessed over 2 waves of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), a prospective, population representative study of adults aged 50+ in the Republic of Ireland. Wave 1 measures – which included the Aging Perceptions Questionnaire, walking speed and all covariates - were taken between 2009 and 2011. Wave 2 measures – which included a second measurement of walking speed and covariates - were collected 2 years later between March and December 2012. Walking speed was measured as the number of seconds to complete the Timed Up-And-Go (TUG) task. Participations with a history of stroke, Parkinson’s disease or an MMSE < 18 were excluded. Results After full adjustment for all covariates (age, gender, level of education, disability, chronic conditions, medications, global cognition and baseline TUG) negative perceptions of aging at baseline were associated with slower TUG speed 2 years later (B=.03, 95% CI = .01 to 05, p< .01). Conclusions Walking speed has previously been considered to be a consequence of physical decline but these results highlight the direct role of psychological state in predicting an objective aging outcome. Negative perceptions about aging are a potentially modifiable risk factor of some elements of physical decline in aging

Post Eclosion Age Predicts the Prevalence of Midgut Trypanosome Infections in Glossina

The teneral phenomenon, as observed in Glossina sp., refers to the increased susceptibility of the fly to trypanosome infection when the first bloodmeal taken is trypanosome-infected. In recent years, the term teneral has gradually become synonymous with unfed, and thus fails to consider the age of the newly emerged fly at the time the first bloodmeal is taken. Furthermore, conflicting evidence exists of the effect of the age of the teneral fly post eclosion when it is given the infected first bloodmeal in determining the infection prevalence. This study demonstrates that it is not the feeding history of the fly but rather the age (hours after eclosion of the fly from the puparium) of the fly when it takes the first (infective) bloodmeal that determines the level of fly susceptibility to trypanosome infection. We examine this phenomenon in male and female flies from two distinct tsetse clades (Glossina morsitans morsitans and Glossina palpalis palpalis) infected with two salivarian trypanosome species, Trypanosoma (Trypanozoon) brucei brucei and Trypanosoma (Nannomonas) congolense using Fisher's exact test to examine differences in infection rates. Teneral tsetse aged less than 24 hours post-eclosion (h.p.e.) are twice as susceptible to trypanosome infection as flies aged 48 h.p.e. This trend is conserved across sex, vector clade and parasite species. The life cycle stage of the parasite fed to the fly (mammalian versus insect form trypanosomes) does not alter this age-related bias in infection. Reducing the numbers of parasites fed to 48 h.p.e., but not to 24 h.p.e. flies, increases teneral refractoriness. The importance of this phenomenon in disease biology in the field as well as the necessity of employing flies of consistent age in laboratory-based infection studies is discussed