Combining hydrology and mosquito population models to identify the drivers of Rift Valley fever emergence in semi-arid regions of West Africa

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral zoonosis of increasing global importance. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted either through exposure to infected animals or through bites from different species of infected mosquitoes, mainly of Aedes and Culex genera. These mosquitoes are very sensitive to environmental conditions, which may determine their presence, biology, and abundance. In East Africa, RVF outbreaks are known to be closely associated with heavy rainfall events, unlike in the semi-arid regions of West Africa where the drivers of RVF emergence remain poorly understood. The assumed importance of temporary ponds and rainfall temporal distribution therefore needs to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A hydrological model is combined with a mosquito population model to predict the abundance of the two main mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes) involved in RVFV transmission in Senegal. The study area is an agropastoral zone located in the Ferlo Valley, characterized by a dense network of temporary water ponds which constitute mosquito breeding sites. The hydrological model uses daily rainfall as input to simulate variations of pond surface areas. The mosquito population model is mechanistic, considers both aquatic and adult stages and is driven by pond dynamics. Once validated using hydrological and entomological field data, the model was used to simulate the abundance dynamics of the two mosquito species over a 43-year period (1961–2003). We analysed the predicted dynamics of mosquito populations with regards to the years of main outbreaks. The results showed that the main RVF outbreaks occurred during years with simultaneous high abundances of both species. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study provides for the first time a mechanistic insight on RVFV transmission in West Africa. It highlights the complementary roles of Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes mosquitoes in virus transmission, and recommends the identification of rainfall patterns favourable for RVFV amplification

Correlated dynamics in egocentric communication networks

We investigate the communication sequences of millions of people through two different channels and analyze the fine grained temporal structure of correlated event trains induced by single individuals. By focusing on correlations between the heterogeneous dynamics and the topology of egocentric networks we find that the bursty trains usually evolve for pairs of individuals rather than for the ego and his/her several neighbors thus burstiness is a property of the links rather than of the nodes. We compare the directional balance of calls and short messages within bursty trains to the average on the actual link and show that for the trains of voice calls the imbalance is significantly enhanced, while for short messages the balance within the trains increases. These effects can be partly traced back to the technological constrains (for short messages) and partly to the human behavioral features (voice calls). We define a model that is able to reproduce the empirical results and may help us to understand better the mechanisms driving technology mediated human communication dynamics.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

A social network approach to examine K-12 educational leaders’ influence on information diffusion on Twitter

This study investigated the relationship between the leader’s gender, leadership position, Twitter use, and influence on information diffusion in the communication network on Twitter. We collected the 30,200 latest tweets of 151 active Twitter users who held educational leadership positions. Results of social network analysis and multiple regression analyses suggest a gender inequality in the leader’s influence on information diffusion in the network. Findings also indicate no significant relationship between leadership position (district vs. building) and a leader\u27s influence in the network. Moreover, Twitter following was positively associated with the leader’s influence in the network, whereas the number of followers, weekly tweets, and the time of Twitter account creation did not predict the leader’s influence. Practical implications on how leaders use Twitter to disseminate information are discussed

Процесс анализа угроз, влияющих на экономическую устойчивость предприятия

На основании проведенного исследования были выявлены факторы возникновения угроз, их группировка по степени воздействию на экономическую устойчивость предприятий и рассмотрена формализация процесса анализа угроз экономической устойчивости предприятий. В условиях рыночной экономики невозможно управлять предприятием без учета влияния угроз, а для эффективного управления важно не только знать об их присутствии, а и правильно идентифицировать конкретную угрозу.На підставі проведеного дослідження були виявлені чинники виникнення загроз, їх угруповання по степені впливу на економічну стійкість підприємств і розглянута формалізація процесу аналізу загроз економічної стійкості підприємств. В умовах ринкової економіки неможливо керувати підприємством без вивчення впливу загроз, а для ефективного керування важливо не тільки знати про їх присутність, а і правильно ідентифікувати конкретну загрозу.On the basis of the conducted research the factors of origin of threats were exposed, their gourmet on a degree to influence on economic stability of enterprises and formalization of process of analysis of threats of economic stability of enterprises is considered. In the conditions of market economy it is impossible to manage an enterprise without taking into account influencing of threats, and for the effective management it is important not only to know about their presence, and to identify the concrete threat correctly

The Impact of Social Support Networks on Maternal Employment: A Comparison of West German, East German and Migrant Mothers of Pre-School Children

Given shortages in public child care in Germany, this paper asks whether social support with child care and domestic work by spouses, kin and friends can facilitate mothers' return to full-time or part-time positions within the first six years after birth. Using SOEP data from 1993-2009 and event history analyses for competing risks, the author compares the employment transitions of West German, East German and migrant mothers of pre-school children. The results indicate that West German and migrant mothers return to work sooner if they have access to kin, and that kinship support is particularly important when public child care is unavailable. Furthermore, West German and migrant mothers are more likely to work full-time if their spouses partipate in domestic work. In contrast, social support does not affect employment transitions in East Germany where public child care is more easily accessible and continuous female employment is a prevalent social norm

Managing Relationship Decay Network, Gender, and Contextual Effects

Relationships are central to human life strategies and have crucial fitness consequences. Yet, at the same time, they incur significant maintenance costs that are rarely considered in either social psychological or evolutionary studies. Although many social psychological studies have explored their dynamics, these studies have typically focused on a small number of emotionally intense ties, whereas social networks in fact consist of a large number of ties that serve a variety of different functions. In this study, we examined how entire active personal networks changed over 18 months across a major life transition. Family relationships and friendships differed strikingly in this respect. The decline in friendship quality was mitigated by increased effort invested in the relationship, but with a striking gender difference: relationship decline was prevented most by increased contact frequency (talking together) for females but by doing more activities together in the case of males

Analyzing and Modeling Real-World Phenomena with Complex Networks: A Survey of Applications

The success of new scientific areas can be assessed by their potential for contributing to new theoretical approaches and in applications to real-world problems. Complex networks have fared extremely well in both of these aspects, with their sound theoretical basis developed over the years and with a variety of applications. In this survey, we analyze the applications of complex networks to real-world problems and data, with emphasis in representation, analysis and modeling, after an introduction to the main concepts and models. A diversity of phenomena are surveyed, which may be classified into no less than 22 areas, providing a clear indication of the impact of the field of complex networks.Comment: 103 pages, 3 figures and 7 tables. A working manuscript, suggestions are welcome