Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies

Novel Cell- and Tissue-Based Assays for Detecting Misfolded and Aggregated Protein Accumulation Within Aggresomes and Inclusion Bodies

Aggresomes and related inclusion bodies appear to serve as storage depots for misfolded and aggregated proteins within cells, which can potentially be degraded by the autophagy pathway. A homogenous fluorescence-based assay was devised to detect aggregated proteins inside aggresomes and inclusion bodies within an authentic cellular context. The assay employs a novel red fluorescent molecular rotor dye, which is essentially nonfluorescent until it binds to structural features associated with the aggregated protein cargo. Aggresomes and related structures were generated within cultured cells using various potent, cell permeable, proteasome inhibitors: MG-132, lactacystin, epoxomicin and bortezomib, and then selectively detected with the fluorescent probe. Employing the probe in combination with various fluorescein-labeled primary antibodies facilitated co-localization of key components of the autophagy system (ubiquitin, p62, and LC3) with aggregated protein cargo by fluorescence microscopy. Furthermore, cytoplasmic aggregates were highlighted in SK-N-SH human neuroblastoma cells incubated with exogenously supplied amyloid beta peptide 1–42. SMER28, a small molecule modulator of autophagy acting via an mTOR-independent mechanism, prevented the accumulation of amyloid beta peptide within these cells. The described assay allows assessment of the effects of protein aggregation directly in cells, without resorting to the use of non-physiological protein mutations or genetically engineered cell lines. With minor modification, the assay was also adapted to the analysis of frozen or formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections, with demonstration of co-localization of aggregated cargo with β-amyloid and tau proteins in brain tissue sections from Alzheimer’s disease patients

Antibiotics Threaten Wildlife: Circulating Quinolone Residues and Disease in Avian Scavengers

Antibiotic residues that may be present in carcasses of medicated livestock could pass to and greatly reduce scavenger wildlife populations. We surveyed residues of the quinolones enrofloxacin and its metabolite ciprofloxacin and other antibiotics (amoxicillin and oxytetracycline) in nestling griffon Gyps fulvus, cinereous Aegypius monachus and Egyptian Neophron percnopterus vultures in central Spain. We found high concentrations of antibiotics in the plasma of many nestling cinereous (57%) and Egyptian (40%) vultures. Enrofloxacin and ciprofloxacin were also found in liver samples of all dead cinereous vultures. This is the first report of antibiotic residues in wildlife. We also provide evidence of a direct association between antibiotic residues, primarily quinolones, and severe disease due to bacterial and fungal pathogens. Our results indicate that, by damaging the liver and kidney and through the acquisition and proliferation of pathogens associated with the depletion of lymphoid organs, continuous exposure to antibiotics could increase mortality rates, at least in cinereous vultures. If antibiotics ingested with livestock carrion are clearly implicated in the decline of the vultures in central Spain then it should be considered a primary concern for conservation of their populations

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state

Multiple and Multidimensional life transitions in the context of life-limiting health conditions:Longitudinal study focussing on perspectives of Young Adults, Families and Professionals

Background: There is a dearth of literature that investigates life transitions of young adults (YAs) with life-limiting conditions, families and professionals. The scant literature that is available has methodological limitations, including not listening to the voice of YAs, collecting data retrospectively, at one time point, from one group’s perspective and single case studies. The aim of this study was to address the gaps found in our literature review and provide a clearer understanding of the multiple and multi-dimensional life transitions experienced by YAs and significant others, over a period of time. Methods: This qualitative study used a longitudinal design and data were collected using semi-structured interviews over a 6-month period at 3 time points. Participants included 12 YAs with life-limiting conditions and their nominated significant others (10 family members and 11 professionals). Data were analysed using a thematic analysis approach. Results: Life transitions of YA and significant others are complex; they experience multiple and multi-dimensional transitions across several domains. The findings challenge the notion that all life transitions are triggered by health transitions of YAs, and has highlighted environmental factors (attitudinal and systemic) that can be changed to facilitate smoother transitions in various aspects of their lives. Conclusions: This study makes a unique and significant contribution to literature. It provides evidence and rich narratives for policy makers and service providers to change policies and practices that are in line with the needs of YAs with life-limiting conditions as they transition to adulthood. Families and professionals have specific training needs that have not yet been met fully

Impact of H1N1 on Socially Disadvantaged Populations: Systematic Review

The burden of H1N1 among socially disadvantaged populations is unclear. We aimed to synthesize hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality data associated with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 among socially disadvantaged populations.Studies were identified through searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, scanning reference lists, and contacting experts. Studies reporting hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality attributable to laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 pandemic among socially disadvantaged populations (e.g., ethnic minorities, low-income or lower-middle-income economy countries [LIC/LMIC]) were included. Two independent reviewers conducted screening, data abstraction, and quality appraisal (Newcastle Ottawa Scale). Random effects meta-analysis was conducted using SAS and Review Manager.Sixty-two studies including 44,777 patients were included after screening 787 citations and 164 full-text articles. The prevalence of hospitalization for H1N1 ranged from 17-87% in high-income economy countries (HIC) and 11-45% in LIC/LMIC. Of those hospitalized, the prevalence of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality was 6-76% and 1-25% in HIC; and 30% and 8-15%, in LIC/LMIC, respectively. There were significantly more hospitalizations among ethnic minorities versus non-ethnic minorities in two studies conducted in North America (1,313 patients, OR 2.26 [95% CI: 1.53-3.32]). There were no differences in ICU admissions (n = 8 studies, 15,352 patients, OR 0.84 [0.69-1.02]) or deaths (n = 6 studies, 14,757 patients, OR 0.85 [95% CI: 0.73-1.01]) among hospitalized patients in HIC. Sub-group analysis indicated that the meta-analysis results were not likely affected by confounding. Overall, the prevalence of hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality due to H1N1 was high for ethnic minorities in HIC and individuals from LIC/LMIC. However, our results suggest that there were little differences in the proportion of hospitalization, severe illness, and mortality between ethnic minorities and non-ethnic minorities living in HIC

BRCA1 and BRCA2 Germline Mutations in Malaysian Women with Early-Onset Breast Cancer without a Family History

BACKGROUND: In Asia, breast cancer is characterised by an early age of onset: In Malaysia, approximately 50% of cases occur in women under the age of 50 years. A proportion of these cases may be attributable, at least in part, to genetic components, but to date, the contribution of genetic components to breast cancer in many of Malaysia's ethnic groups has not been well-characterised. METHODOLOGY: Given that hereditary breast carcinoma is primarily due to germline mutations in one of two breast cancer susceptibility genes, BRCA1 and BRCA2, we have characterised the spectrum of BRCA mutations in a cohort of 37 individuals with early-onset disease (<or=40 years) and no reported family history. Mutational analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 was conducted by full sequencing of all exons and intron-exon junctions. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we report a total of 14 BRCA1 and 17 BRCA2 sequence alterations, of which eight are novel (3 BRCA1 and 5 BRCA2). One deleterious BRCA1 mutation and 2 deleterious BRCA2 mutations, all of which are novel mutations, were identified in 3 of 37 individuals. This represents a prevalence of 2.7% and 5.4% respectively, which is consistent with other studies in other Asian ethnic groups (4-9%)

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales