The extratropical linear step response to tropical precipitation anomalies and its use in constraining projected circulation changes under climate warming

Rossby wave trains triggered by tropical convection strongly affect the atmospheric circulation in the extratropics. Using daily gridded observational and reanalysis data, we demonstrate that a technique based on linear response theory effectively captures the linear response in 250-hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere using examples of steplike changes in precipitation over selected tropical areas during boreal winter. Application of this method to six models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using the same tropical forcing, reveals a large intermodel spread in the linear response associated with intermodel differences in Rossby waveguide structure. The technique is then applied to a projected tropicswide precipitation change in the HadGEM2-ES model during 2025-45 December-February, a period corresponding to a 28C rise in the mean global temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario. The response is found to depend on whether the mean state underlying the technique is calculated using observations, the present-day simulation, or the future projection; indeed, the bias in extratropical response to tropical precipitation because of errors in the basic state is much larger than the projected change in extratropical circulation itself. We therefore propose the linear step response method as a semiempirical method of making near-term future projections of the extratropical circulation, which should assist in quantifying uncertainty in such projections

Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

Satellite data and a 35-year hindcast of the Amundsen Sea Embayment summer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to understand how regional and large-scale atmospheric variability affects thinning of ice shelves in this sector of West Antarctica by melting from above and below (linked to intrusions of warm water caused by anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge). El Nino episodes are associated with an increase in surface melt but do not have a statistically significant impact on westerly winds over the continental shelf edge. The location of the Amundsen Sea Low and the polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) have negligible impact on surface melting, although a positive SAM and eastward shift of the Amundsen Sea Low cause anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge. The projected future increase in El Nino episodes and positive SAM could therefore increase the risk of disintegration of West Antarctic ice shelves

Origin and dynamics of global atmospheric wavenumber-4 in the Southern mid-latitude during austral summer

Using empirical orthogonal function analysis, a stationary atmospheric wavenumber-4 (AW4) pattern is identified in the Southern mid-latitudes during austral summer. The generation mechanism and its linkage to Southern Hemisphere climate is explored using a linear response model and composite analysis. It is found that, AW4 pattern is forced by a Rossby wave source in the upstream region of the upper-tropospheric westerly wave-guide. The vortex stretching associated with the anomalous convection over subtropical western Pacific Ocean (near the New Zealand coast) adjacent to the westerly jet triggers the Rossby wave train around mid-November. This disturbance gets trapped in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet waveguide and circumnavigates the globe. Around 15-25 days later (in early December), a steady AW4 pattern is established in the Southern mid-latitudes. Further, correlation analysis suggests the AW4 pattern is independent of other natural variabilities such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, and Indian Ocean Dipole. The AW4 pattern is found to influence the rainfall over different parts of South America and Australia by modulating upper-level divergence

Unusual premonsoon eddy and Kelvin wave activities in the Bay of Bengal during Indian Summer monsoon deficit in June 2009 and 2012

An investigation of the eddy and coastal Kelvin wave activities in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is carried out during premonsoon season in two years of Indian summer monsoon deficit in June (2009 and 2012), occurred in the recent warming hiatus period. Using altimeter observations, our study reveals that over the northern BoB cyclonic eddy kinetic energy is reduced by 35% and 50% from the climatology during premonsoon seasons in 2009 and 2012, respectively, while the cyclonic eddy area is reduced by 18% and 24%, respectively. A concurrent reduction is observed in the first upwelling Kelvin wave (uKW) activities in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean as well as in the coastal BoB for these years. The reduction in the generation of the first uKW in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is attributed to the westerly wind anomalies in January-March of these years. Additionally, meridional wind stress anomalies during March-April in these years are found to be southerly, causing anomalous coastal downwelling in the eastern rim of BoB. This coastal downwelling blocks the propagation of the first uKW. The decrease in the first uKW activities in the coastal waveguide of the BoB reduces the radiation of upwelling Rossby waves, thereby decreasing the cyclonic eddy activities in the northern BoB. The results from this letter could be helpful for further understanding of upper ocean mixing processes in the BoB during monsoon deficit years

Unusual Premonsoon Eddy and Kelvin Wave Activities in the Bay of Bengal During Indian Summer Monsoon Deficit in June 2009 and 2012

An investigation of the eddy and coastal Kelvin wave activities in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is carried out during premonsoon season in two years of Indian summer monsoon deficit in June (2009 and 2012), occurred in the recent warming hiatus period. Using altimeter observations, our study reveals that over the northern BoB cyclonic eddy kinetic energy is reduced by 35% and 50% from the climatology during premonsoon seasons in 2009 and 2012, respectively, while the cyclonic eddy area is reduced by 18% and 24%, respectively. A concurrent reduction is observed in the first upwelling Kelvin wave (uKW) activities in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean as well as in the coastal BoB for these years. The reduction in the generation of the first uKW in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is attributed to the westerly wind anomalies in January-March of these years. Additionally, meridional wind stress anomalies during March-April in these years are found to be southerly, causing anomalous coastal downwelling in the eastern rim of BoB. This coastal downwelling blocks the propagation of the first uKW. The decrease in the first uKW activities in the coastal waveguide of the BoB reduces the radiation of upwelling Rossby waves, thereby decreasing the cyclonic eddy activities in the northern BoB. The results from this letter could be helpful for further understanding of upper ocean mixing processes in the BoB during monsoon deficit years

Barrier layer characteristics of the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean during austral summer and autumn

Barrier layer in the Enderby Basin (EB) and the Australian Antarctic Basin (AAB) during late summer (December & January) and early autumn (February & March) are studied using temperature-salinity profiles collected between 1975 and 2012. A distinct difference in mixed layer depth is observed over the eastern (i.e. the EB) compared to western (i.e. the AAB) side of the Kerguelen Plateau (KP), with shallower mixed layer depths on the eastern side. Mixed layers show an increase from less than 50 m–∼150 m from south to north in the EB. During autumn, the wind strengthens and the upwelling over the eastern side of the KP (i.e. in the AAB) weakens, resulting in deeper mixed layers (∼80 m–100 m) compared to summer. During summer, deep barrier layer (BL) values (∼50 m or more) with porosity less than 0.3 was seen over the Chun Spur region. The fresher melt water from the EB brought by the Fawn trough current (FTC) across the KP may be responsible for the occurrence of BL over the region. During autumn, BL is spread over a much larger area around the Chun Spur, which could be attributed to the increase in the strength of FTC due to the intensification of wind over the region. A thorough study of BL condition over this region is required to understand the processes behind the discrepancies in sea ice conditions

Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016

During austral spring 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) decreased at a record rate of 75 x 10(3) km(2) d(-1), which was 46% faster than the mean rate and 18% faster than in any previous spring season during the satellite era. The decrease of sea ice area was also exceptional and 28% greater than the mean. Anomalous negative retreat occurred in all sectors of the Antarctic but was greatest in the Weddell and Ross Seas. Record negative SIE anomalies for the day of year were recorded from 3 November 2016 to 9 April 2017. Rapid ice retreat in the Weddell Sea took place in strong northerly flow after an early maximum ice extent in late August. Rapid ice retreat occurred in November in the Ross Sea when surface pressure was at a record high level, with the Southern Annular Mode at its most negative for that month since 1968

Characteristics of surface “melt potential” over Antarctic ice shelves based on regional atmospheric model simulations of summer air temperature extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19

We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq, %) and intensity (MPI-int, K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23-35%, MPI-int 1.2-2.1 K), lowest (2-3%, < 0 K) for Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10-24% and 0.6-1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3-4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist