Blockbusters, Bombs and Sleepers: The income distribution of movies

The distribution of gross earnings of movies released each year show a distribution having a power-law tail with Pareto exponent $\alpha \simeq 2$. While this offers interesting parallels with income distributions of individuals, it is also clear that it cannot be explained by simple asset exchange models, as movies do not interact with each other directly. In fact, movies (because of the large quantity of data available on their earnings) provide the best entry-point for studying the dynamics of how ``a hit is born'' and the resulting distribution of popularity (of products or ideas). In this paper, we show evidence of Pareto law for movie income, as well as, an analysis of the time-evolution of income.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Proceedings of International Workshop on Econophysics of Wealth Distributions (Econophys-Kolkata I), March 15-19, 200

Methodology and policy prescription in economic thought: a response to Mario Bunge

Bunge (2000) distinguishes two main methodological approaches of holism and individualism, and associates with them policy prescriptions of centralism and laissezfaire. He identifies systemism as a superior approach to both the study and management of society. The present paper, seeking to correct and develop this line of thought, suggests a more complex relation between policy and methodology. There are two possible methodological underpinnings for laissez-faire: while writers such as Friedman and Lucas fit Bunge’s pattern, more sophisticated advocates of laissez-faire, such as Smith and Hayek, base their policy prescription in a methodology quite divergent from the individualism Bunge describes

Social Percolation and the Influence of Mass Media

Mass media shift the percolative phase transition observed in the marketing model of Solomon and Weisbuch.Comment: 6 pages including 4 figure

The statistical laws of popularity: Universal properties of the box office dynamics of motion pictures

Are there general principles governing the process by which certain products or ideas become popular relative to other (often qualitatively similar) competitors? To investigate this question in detail, we have focused on the popularity of movies as measured by their box-office income. We observe that the log-normal distribution describes well the tail (corresponding to the most successful movies) of the empirical distributions for the total income, the income on the opening week, as well as, the weekly income per theater. This observation suggests that popularity may be the outcome of a linear multiplicative stochastic process. In addition, the distributions of the total income and the opening income show a bimodal form, with the majority of movies either performing very well or very poorly in theaters. We also observe that the gross income per theater for a movie at any point during its lifetime is, on average, inversely proportional to the period that has elapsed after its release. We argue that (i) the log-normal nature of the tail, (ii) the bimodal form of the overall gross income distribution, and (iii) the decay of gross income per theater with time as a power law, constitute the fundamental set of {\em stylized facts} (i.e., empirical "laws") that can be used to explain other observations about movie popularity. We show that, in conjunction with an assumption of a fixed lower cut-off for income per theater below which a movie is withdrawn from a cinema, these laws can be used to derive a Weibull distribution for the survival probability of movies which agrees with empirical data. The connection to extreme-value distributions suggests that popularity can be viewed as a process where a product becomes popular by avoiding failure (i.e., being pulled out from circulation) for many successive time periods. We suggest that these results may apply to popularity in general.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure

Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context:The impact of signals

Grounded in signaling theory, this paper investigates the signals reflecting product quality, innovativeness, reputation and cultural background which influence film performance, i.e. film survival (duration on cinema screen) and box office success, in China’s changing institutional context. This market has grown substantially and still possesses potential for further development. However, China’s unique institutional context presents challenges. By examining an expanded range of potential signals, two of which have not previously been examined in the literature, namely imported films and enhanced format film formats such as 3D and IMAX, we develop a conceptual framework and argue that signaling theory needs to be combined with institutional context. Similar to findings for film industries in other countries, we find quality and reputational signals including budget, star power, sequels, and online consumer reviews to be important in China. However, unique results are also revealed. Chinese consumers react to an innovativeness signal in that they are specifically attracted to enhanced format films. Film award nominations and prizes are insignificant reputational signals. Once other signals are taken into account, imported films on average do not perform as well as domestic films. We link these findings to China’s unique institutional setting and offer important implications for management, recognizing the challenges to film companies of competing in an increasingly globalized market. The paper is also of relevance to policymakers given their continued efforts in shaping the development of China’s film industry

Cytotoxicity and anti-Sporothrix brasiliensis activity of the Origanum majorana Linn. oil

The study aimed to evaluate the anti-Sporothrix sp. activity of the essential oil of Origanummajorana Linn. (marjoram), its chemical analysis, and its cytotoxic activity. A total of 18fungal isolates of Sporothrix brasiliensis (n: 17) from humans, dogs and cats, and a standardstrain of Sporothrix schenckii (n: 1) were tested using the broth microdilution technique (Clin-ical and Laboratory Standard Institute – CLSI M27-A3) and the results were expressed inminimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimal fungicidal concentration (MFC). TheMIC50and MIC90of itraconazole against S. brasiliensis were 2 g/mL and 8 g/mL, respectively,and the MFC50and MFC90were 2 g/mL and >16 g/mL, respectively, with three S. brasilien-sis isolates resistant to antifungal. S. schenckii was sensitive at MIC of 1 g/mL and MFC of8 g/mL. For the oil of O. majorana L., all isolates were susceptible to MIC of ≤2.25–9 mg/mLand MFC of ≤2.25–18 mg/mL. The MIC50and MIC90were ≤2.25 mg/mL and 4.5 mg/mL, respec-tively, and the MFC50/90values were twice more than the MIC. Twenty-two compounds wereidentified by gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector (CG-FID) and 1,8-cineoleand 4-terpineol were the majority. Through the colorimetric (MTT) assay, the toxicity wasobserved in 70–80% of VERO cells between 0.078 and 5 mg/mL. For the first time, the studydemonstrated the satisfactory in vitro anti-Sporothrix sp. activity of marjoram oil and furtherstudies are needed to ensure its safe and effective use

Inhibition of Acetylcholinesterase and Fatty Acid Composition in Theobroma grandiflorum Seeds

Theobroma grandiflorum is an important fruit tree from Sterculiaceae family, native to the Brazilian Amazon, known in the region as cupuaçu. The seeds have a high fat content (24%) with characteristics that resemble those of cocoa (Theobroma cacao) butter with potential applications in the cosmetic, pharmaceutical and food industries. The main objective of this work was to explore the seed fats from T. grandiflorum that were analyzed for fatty acid composition by Gas Chromatography with Flame Ionization Detector (GC-FID) and to analyze their activity for acetylcholinesterase inhibition. Chromatographic analysis provided detection of nine fatty acids. The major fatty acids found in the species were oleic (40.0%), stearic (32.7%), arachidic (10.4%) and palmitic (8.0%). The acetylcholinesterase inhibition by fats from seeds was over 40.48%. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17807/orbital.v0i0.89

VARIAÇÕES PLASMÁTICAS DE AMINAS VASOATIVAS EM EQUINOS SOB EFEITO DE SOBRECARGA DE CARBOIDRATOS E ANTI-INFLAMATÓRIOS NÃO ESTEROIDAIS

Vinte equinos foram submetidos à sobrecarga de carboidratos (SC) e as variações plasmáticas das concentrações de serotonina (5-HT), putrescina (PUT) e cadaverina (CAD) foram determinadas por cromatografia gasosa. Após 36h da SC, os animais foram divididos em quatro grupos (n=5) e receberam, a cada 12h, por via intravenosa: solução salina 10mL (GC), cetoprofeno 2,2mg/kg (GK), fenilbutazona 4,4 mg/kg (GF) e flunixina meglumina 1,1 mg/kg (GFM). Amostras de sangue foram coletadas em intervalos regulares após a SC (0 - 72h).  Às 6h após a SC observou-se um pico nas concentrações de 5-HT, com rápido retorno a valores abaixo dos basais. Não foram observadas variações nas concentrações de PUT; contudo, as concentrações de CAD se elevaram às 6h, assim permanecendo (com algumas variações) até o final do experimento. Conclui-se que a SC induz aumentos precoces (6h) nas concentrações plasmáticas de 5-HT e CAD. As concentrações plasmáticas das aminas estudadas não foram alteradas por nenhum dos tratamentos empregados. PALAVRAS CHAVES: aminas vasoativas; anti-inflamatórios não esteroidais; equinos

The effect of social interactions in the primary life cycle of motion pictures

We model the consumption life cycle of theater attendance for single movies by taking into account the size of the targeted group and the effect of social interactions. We provide an analytical solution of such model, which we contrast with empirical data from the film industry obtaining good agreement with the diverse types of behaviors empirically found. The model grants a quantitative measure of the valorization of this cul- tural good based on the relative values of the coupling between agents who have watched the movie and those who have not. This represents a measurement of the observed quality of the good that is extracted solely from its dynamics, independently of critics reviews.Comment: 9 Pages, 3 figure

Decision-rule cascades and the dynamics of speculative bubbles

We combine Minsky's financial fragility analysis, behavioural analysis of decision rules and the evolutionary economics of rule trajectories to provide an empirically grounded and computationally tractable theory of the complex evolutionary dynamics of speculative financial upswings. The behavioural dynamics of asset bubbles can be conceptualized as the joint consequence of the adoption and diffusion process of new investment decision rules coupled with the degradation of those rules as they pass from a few expert investors to larger population of amateurs. We illustrate this using data covering the recent Brisbane property market bubble (1999-2003) and show how it is consistent with the existence of such cascading decision rules. We then explain how multi-agent simulation methods can be used for modelling decision rule cascades. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved