Monitoring Long-term Mangrove Shoreline Changes along the Northern Coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea

Generally, investigating changes in mangrove shorelines is an important step to evaluate whether mangrove ecosystems are expanding or contracting. In this study, the rates of change of mangrove boundaries were investigated along the coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea, over a 30-year period. Seaward edges of mangrove forests were extracted from Landsat images of the years 1986, 2000 and 2016 and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Software was used to implement the Linear Regression Rate (LRR) method to quantify the rates of boundary changes. On average, areas that experienced boundary expansion progressed by 2.55 m yr-1 and those that experienced contraction regressed by -0.38 m yr-1. The maximum rate of expansion was 25.91 m yr-1 and the maximum rate of contraction was -22.45 m yr-1. Mangroves located on the coasts of the Persian Gulf exhibited differential rates of progression and regression at their borders, with expansion rates increasing in an eastward direction toward the coasts of the Oman Sea. However, on the eastern coasts of the Oman Sea, mangroves are characterized by contraction and erosion

Evaluation of mangrove rehabilitation and afforestation in the southern coasts of Iran

The increasing multiple ecosystem services of mangrove forests, especially in the coastal regions have highlighted a need for conservation and afforestation of these forests. However, economic development and activities on the coasts have generated severe pollution issues that caused irreparable damages to the areas and quality of mangrove forests. As a result, rehabilitating the affected areas and forest planting are increasingly important, whereby some form of an assessment is needed to determine their sustainable performance and effectives. This study has used the indicators of forest resource sustainability, and the sustainability of planting sites to evaluate mangrove plantings in Iran’s southern coast. Findings showed that there was a total of 47 mangrove planting sites on the coasts of the three provinces studied with an area of 9584.5 ha. There were 26 afforestation practice sites with an area of 5724 ha, and 21 combined rehabilitation and afforestation practice sites with an area of 3860.5 ha identified in this study. Approximately 76.6% of planting sites had been lost and the remaining areas had experienced an average density drop of 44%. Results of the stability class analysis revealed that 23 planting sites were in an extremely unsustainable state, 15 sites were considered as highly unsustainable, six sites were in a state of tendency to be unsustainable, whereas only three sites were regarded as sustainable. Findings from this study can assist managers and decision makers to review the site selection processes and pattern of successful planting sites, to facilitate better site selection and enhance the monitoring of mangrove rehabilitation or afforestation

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Forest Dwellers’ Dependence on Forest Resources in Semi-Arid Environments

Forests remain an important resource in Iran, as most of the livelihood activities of local communities, especially in the semi-arid environment of the Zagros forests, are dependent on forest resources. The aim of this study was to identify the type and extent of forest dependency. Semi-structured interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data from 170 households in Central Zagros. Results show that using firewood for fuel and non-fuel uses, harvesting edible and medicinal plants, agriculture and horticulture, and livestock grazing were the main forest livelihood activities undertaken by the households in the study area. On average, each household harvested 18.08 cubic meters of oak per year for water heating (bathing), baking bread, heating, cooking, heating milk and buttermilk, agricultural tools, house building, warehouses and shelters, fencing, branches for livestock, charcoal and harvesting firewood for sale. Of rural households, 72% used edible plants, and 86% used medicinal plants. Age, job, residence status, number of livestock, crop farming and household size were found to be correlated with forest dependency. Findings from this study contribute broadly to an integrated understanding of the bio-human dimensions of forest ecosystems, with specific reference to the study area

Wildfire Probability Mapping: Bivariate vs. Multivariate Statistics

Wildfires are one of the most common natural hazards worldwide. Here, we compared the capability of bivariate and multivariate models for the prediction of spatially explicit wildfire probability across a fire-prone landscape in the Zagros ecoregion, Iran. Dempster–Shafer-based evidential belief function (EBF) and the multivariate logistic regression (LR) were applied to a spatial dataset that represents 132 fire events from the period of 2007–2014 and twelve explanatory variables (altitude, aspect, slope degree, topographic wetness index (TWI), annual temperature, and rainfall, wind effect, land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and distance to roads, rivers, and residential areas). While the EBF model successfully characterized each variable class by four probability mass functions in terms of wildfire probabilities, the LR model identified the variables that have a major impact on the probability of fire occurrence. Two distribution maps of wildfire probability were developed based upon the results of each model. In an ensemble modeling perspective, we combined the two probability maps. The results were verified and compared by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test. The results showed that although an improved predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.864) can be achieved via an ensemble modeling of bivariate and multivariate statistics, the models fail to individually provide a satisfactory prediction of wildfire probability (EBFAUC = 0.701; LRAUC = 0.728). From these results, we recommend the employment of ensemble modeling approaches for different wildfire-prone landscapes

Forestry Research in the Middle East: A Bibliometric Analysis

Research trends in the field of forestry have experienced a significant evolution in recent years. However, there has been little use of bibliometric analyses to assess academic organizations and individual researchers in this field of science. This study investigates the progress of forestry research in Iran, Israel, and Turkey based on a bibliometric analysis of 2482 documents published between 2005 and 2019 and indexed in the Web of Science (WoS) scientific information platform. The countries were analyzed and compared in terms of the number of documents, the number of citations, the mean number of citations per document, the h-index, the share of funded articles, and several other metrics. A complete keyword network with graphical visualization and cluster analysis was also used for depicting the most frequent keywords used by the authors from these three countries. The results showed that the number of publications on forestry research grew steadily during the study period. Turkey, with 1529 documents, was the most active in publishing research in the field of forestry, followed by Iran (726 documents) and Israel (219 documents). Turkey’s publications received 11,220 citations with a cooperation coefficient (CC) of 0.587 that revealed a strong relationship between international collaboration with the USA, Germany, and Italy, and the number of citations, such that the articles with co-authors affiliated to foreign institutions were cited far more often than the articles with Turkish authorship. Although Iran (CC = 0.680) and Israel (CC = 0.706) recorded more activities in international collaboration than Turkey, their publications received much lower citations (Iran’s citations = 4433, Israel’s citations = 3939). Israel had 136 articles (62%) that received research funding, followed by Turkey and Iran with 604 (39%) and 284 (38%) articles. Nine out of the ten most popular journals among Israeli researchers were ranked as quartiles 1 and 2 in the forestry category, whereas Iranian and Turkish researchers mostly published in fewer journals ranked as quartiles 1 and 2. The most frequent keywords (i.e., topics) were species, condition, forest, and tree. Insights provided here can help balance research activities towards publishing more informed and effective scientific articles

Review and assessment of the potential restoration of ecosystem services through the implementation of the biodiversity management plans for SDG-15 localization

Effective restoration strategies play a crucial role in mitigating the environmental impact of mining and colliery activities while promoting ecological resilience and rejuvenating ecosystem services. However, many organizations find it challenging to understand and balance their efforts in restoring degraded lands. For example, their restoration plans lack clarity and overlook relevant ecosystem services. This study reviews and focuses on the potential restoration of ecosystem services at TATA Steel's Noamundi Iron Ore Mine and West Bokaro Colliery to contribute to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG-15, for localization. The approach involved assessing the number of preventive measures being implemented to restore a particular ecosystem service. Moreover, the potential of each preventive measure is to restore that ecosystem service. The findings underscore the significance of preventive measures and comprehensive restoration plans in enhancing carbon sequestration, soil fertility, habitat creation, and genetic diversity conservation. Our results showed that the impact scores and ranks of various ecosystem services demonstrate the positive effects of restoration efforts, emphasizing the importance of reestablishing forests, restoring water bodies and wetlands, and allocating land for agriculture and public use. The research provides valuable insights for decision-makers in developing sustainable land management strategies, ensuring biodiversity conservation and local communities' well-being. By prioritizing ecosystem services in restoration initiatives, stakeholders can contribute to the sustainable management of natural resources and foster a harmonious coexistence between human activities and the environment

Curcumin Offers No Additional Benefit to Lifestyle Intervention on Cardiometabolic Status in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Curcumin has been shown to exert glucose-lowering and anti-atherosclerotic effects in type 2 diabetes. Hence, we investigated curcumin’s effects on atherogenesis markers, fatty liver, insulin resistance, and adipose tissue-related indicators in patients with NAFLD. In this secondary analysis of a 12-week randomized controlled trial, fifty-two patients with NAFLD received lifestyle modification. In addition, they were randomly allocated to either the curcumin group (1.5 g/day) or the matching placebo. Outcome variables (assessed before and after the study) were: the fatty liver index (FLI), hepatic steatosis index (HSI), fatty liver score (FLS), BMI, age, ALT, TG score (BAAT), triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, Castelli risk index-I (CRI-I), Castelli risk index-II (CRI-II), TG/HDL–C ratio, atherogenic coefficient (AC), atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), lipoprotein combine index (LCI), cholesterol index (CHOLINDEX), lipid accumulation product (LAP), body adiposity index (BAI), visceral adiposity index (VAI), metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) values. The TyG index decreased in the curcumin group and increased in the placebo group, with a significant difference between the groups (p = 0.029). However, a between-group change was not significant after adjustment for multiple testing. Other indices were not significantly different between the groups either before or after multiple test correction. After the intervention, there was a lower number of patients with severe fatty liver (FLI ≥ 60) and metabolic syndrome in the curcumin group compared to the placebo (p = 0.021 and p = 0.012, respectively). In conclusion, curcumin offers no additional cardiometabolic benefits to lifestyle intervention in patients with NAFLD