Antineutrino Geophysics with Liquid Scintillator Detectors

Detecting the antineutrinos emitted by the decay of radioactive elements in the mantle and crust could provide a direct measurement of the total abundance of uranium and thorium in the Earth. In calculating the antineutrino flux at specific sites, the local geology of the crust and the background from the world's nuclear power reactors are important considerations. Employing a global crustal map, with type and thickness data, and using recent estimates of the uranium and thorium distribution in the Earth, we calculate the antineutrino event rate for two new neutrino detectors. We show that spectral features allow terrestrial antineutrino events to be identified above reactor antineutrino backgrounds and that the uranium and thorium contributions can be separately determined.Comment: Published paper differs from original submitted preprint because reviewers suggested updated continental crust U/Th abundances. Kamioka geographical location error was in preprint, partially corrected in published version. This version is the same as the published paper, with Kamioka fully corrected. Because of recent interest in this topic, this version is being made available, despite this work being 8 years ol

Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions

Collections of related Poisson or binomial counts arise, for example, from a number of different failures in similar machines or neighbouring time periods. A conventional Bayesian analysis requires a rather indirect prior specification and intensive numerical methods for posterior evaluations. An alternative approach using Bayes linear kinematics in which simple conjugate specifications for individual counts are linked through a Bayes linear belief structure is presented. Intensive numerical methods are not required. The use of transformations of the binomial and Poisson parameters is proposed. The approach is illustrated in two examples, one involving a Poisson count of failures, the other involving a binomial count in an analysis of failure times

Eigenvalue estimates for non-selfadjoint Dirac operators on the real line

We show that the non-embedded eigenvalues of the Dirac operator on the real line with non-Hermitian potential $V$ lie in the disjoint union of two disks in the right and left half plane, respectively, provided that the $L^1-norm$ of $V$ is bounded from above by the speed of light times the reduced Planck constant. An analogous result for the Schr\"odinger operator, originally proved by Abramov, Aslanyan and Davies, emerges in the nonrelativistic limit. For massless Dirac operators, the condition on $V$ implies the absence of nonreal eigenvalues. Our results are further generalized to potentials with slower decay at infinity. As an application, we determine bounds on resonances and embedded eigenvalues of Dirac operators with Hermitian dilation-analytic potentials

Development of Ultra Low Temperature, Impact Resistant Lithium Battery for the Mars Microprobe

The requirements of the power source for the Mars Microprobe, to be backpacked on the Mars 98 Spacecraft, are fairly demanding, with survivability to a shock of the order of 80,000 g combined with an operational requirement at -80 C. Development of a suitable power system, based on primary lithium-thionyl chloride is underway for the last eighteen months, together with Yardney Technical Products Inc., Pawcatuck, CT. The battery consists of 4 cells of 2 Ah capacity at 25 C, of which at least 25 % would be available at -80 C, at a moderate rate of C/20. Each probe contains two batteries and two such probes will be deployed. The selected cell is designed around an approximate 1/2 "D" cells, with flat plate electrodes. Significant improvements to the conventional Li-SOCl2 cell include: (a) use of tetrachlorogallate salt instead of aluminate for improved low temperature performance and reduced voltage delay, (b) optimization of the salt concentration, and (c) modification of the cell design to develop shock resistance to 80,000 g. We report here results from our several electrical performance tests, mission simulation tests, microcalorimetry and AC impedance studies, and Air gun tests. The cells have successfully gone through mission-enabling survivability and performance tests for the Mars Microprobe penetrator

Functional microdomains in G-protein-coupled receptors: the conserved arginine-cage motif in the gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor

An Arg present in the third transmembrane domain of all rhodopsin-like G-protein-coupled receptors is required for efficient signal transduction. Mutation of this Arg in the gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor to Gln, His, or Lys abolished or severely impaired agonist-stimulated inositol phosphate generation, consistent with Arg having a role in receptor activation. To investigate the contribution of the surrounding structural domain in the actions of the conserved Arg, an integrated microdomain modeling and mutagenesis approach has been utilized. Two conserved residues that constrain the Arg side chain to a limited number of conformations have been identified. In the inactive wild-type receptor, the Arg side chain is proposed to form an ionic interaction with Asp3.49(138). Experimental results for the Asp3. 49(138) --> Asn mutant receptor show a modestly enhanced receptor efficiency, consistent with the hypothesis that weakening the Asp3. 49(138)-Arg3.50(139) interaction by protonation of the Asp or by the mutation to Asn favors activation. With activation, the Asp3. 49(138)-Arg3.50(139) ionic bond would break, and the unrestrained Arg would be prevented from orienting itself toward the water phase by a steric clash with Ile3.54(143). The mutation Ile3.54(143) --> Ala, which eliminates this clash in simulations, causes a marked reduction in measured receptor signaling efficiency, implying that solvation of Arg3.50(139) prevents it from functioning in the activation of the receptor. These data are consistent with residues Asp3.49(138) and Ile3.54(143) forming a structural motif, which helps position Arg in its appropriate inactive and active receptor conformations

Seasonal variation in the relative dominance of herbivore guilds in an African savanna

African savannas are highly seasonal with a diverse array of both mammalian and invertebrate herbivores, yet herbivory studies have focused almost exclusively on mammals. We conducted a 2-yr exclosure experiment in South Africa's Kruger National Park to measure the relative impact of these two groups of herbivores on grass removal at both highly productive patches (termite mounds) and in the less productive savanna matrix. Invertebrate and mammalian herbivory was greater on termite mounds, but the relative importance of each group changed over time. Mammalian offtake was higher than invertebrates in the dry season, but can be eclipsed by invertebrates during the wet season when this group is more active. Our results demonstrate that invertebrates play a substantial role in savanna herbivory and should not be disregarded in attempts to understand the impacts of herbivory on ecosystems

The Ephemeris and Dipping Spectral Behavior of X1624-490

We present striking results from Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of the 21-hr low mass X-ray binary X1624-490, showing five complex dips in unprecedented detail. For the first time, dipping is detected up to 15 keV. Prominent flares are also observed in the light curves, limited to energies above 8 keV. Spectra selected by intensity during dip episodes can be well fit with a two-component model consisting of a point-like blackbody from the neutron star and progressive covering of an extended Comptonized region, presumably an accretion disk corona (ADC), corrected for photons scattered into and out of the X-ray beam by a interstellar dust halo. We find that the outer regions of the absorber are highly ionized and that electron scattering is totally responsible for the X-ray attenuation during shallow dipping. The timescales of dip ingress and egress indicate that the envelope of material absorbing the ADC has smaller angular size than the ADC itself, and that the ADC is likely limited to a height-to-radius ratio of 10%, rather than being spherical in extent. In addition, we have analyzed 4.5 yrs of RXTE All Sky Monitor (ASM) coverage to derive the first accurate orbital ephemeris for X1624-490, with phase zero (the time of dip centers) well-described by the relation 2450088.63918(69) + N*0.869907(12) (JD).Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

The Spitzer Survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud: S3MC Imaging and Photometry in the Mid- and Far-Infrared Wavebands

We present the initial results from the Spitzer Survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud (S3MC), which imaged the star-forming body of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) in all seven MIPS and IRAC wavebands. We find that the F_8/F_24 ratio (an estimate of PAH abundance) has large spatial variations and takes a wide range of values that are unrelated to metallicity but anticorrelated with 24 um brightness and F_24/F_70 ratio. This suggests that photodestruction is primarily responsible for the low abundance of PAHs observed in star-forming low-metallicity galaxies. We use the S3MC images to compile a photometric catalog of ~400,000 mid- and far-infrared point sources in the SMC. The sources detected at the longest wavelengths fall into four main categories: 1) bright 5.8 um sources with very faint optical counterparts and very red mid-infrared colors ([5.8]-[8.0]>1.2), which we identify as YSOs. 2) Bright mid-infrared sources with mildly red colors (0.16<[5.8]-[8.0]<0.6), identified as carbon stars. 3) Bright mid-infrared sources with neutral colors and bright optical counterparts, corresponding to oxygen-rich evolved stars. And, 4) unreddened early B stars (B3 to O9) with a large 24 um excess. This excess is reminiscent of debris disks, and is detected in only a small fraction of these stars (<5%). The majority of the brightest infrared point sources in the SMC fall into groups one to three. We use this photometric information to produce a catalog of 282 bright YSOs in the SMC with a very low level of contamination (~7%).Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. Given the draconian figure file-size limits implemented in astro-ph, readers are encouraged to download the manuscript with full quality images from http://celestial.berkeley.edu/spitzer/publications/s3mcsurvey.pd

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust methods and one on other approaches), data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 18 months