Is there a best model? A radioecological case study

Mathematical models are extensively used to support decision-making in many disciplines. Nevertheless there are not clear standard guidelines to assess models performance. This significantly affects model selection processes, which aim to determine the "best model", among several possible candidates. Model performance is often measured by the accuracy with which models predictions fit independent observations. However this test assesses only a single aspect of a model. A model selection process should establish the similarities between the constructed and the conceptual model. Therefore it should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the models capabilities, which is the objective of the multi-aspect comparison approach proposed in this work. The innovative aspect of this approach is to create a relationship among four conventional tests, i.e. uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, goodness-of-fit prediction-observations, model complexity and level of details, in order to provide a reliable estimation of the differences between the constructed and conceptual models. Although, model complexity is quantified using a standard approach, a novel methodology is proposed in this thesis, intended to be an intuitive and illustrative approach in creating a linkage between model complexity and level of detail. Five radioecological models have been considered: SAVE rural model, TEMAS rural model, SAVE semi-natural model, FORM and RIFE1. The results show that there is a limited resemblance between these models and the respective conceptual models. This is due to low prediction accuracy (RIFE1 and FORM); high level of uncertainty (SAVE rural); sensitivity to parameters which is not consistent with the current understanding of radiocaesium behaviour in the environment (TEMAS and SAVE rural). The SAVE rural model has been revisited in order to increase the similarity between the constructed and conceptual model. The resulting model prediction shows lower degree of uncertainty and there is a significant agreement between the model sensitivity results and the general understanding of the processes affecting Cs soil-to-plant transfer. Nonetheless the revised model does not show higher prediction accuracy than the original model. It is concluded that a reliable methodology for model selection should be based on a comprehensive investigation of each considered model aspect and that there is not a single best approach. The methodology proposed in this work has been successful in the case of the five radioecological models studied

DNA methylation analysis by bisulfite next-generation sequencing for early detection of oral squamous cell carcinoma and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion from oral brushing

open9siOral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is commonly preceded by oral potentially malignant lesions (OPML). The aim of the present study was to assess, by bisulfite next-generation sequencing (NGS), the methylation status of a list of candidate genes obtained from oral brushings to early detect OPML and OSCC.This study was supported by an academic grant (FARB FFBO124539) from the University of Bologna.openMorandi, Luca; Gissi, Davide; Tarsitano, Achille; Asioli, Sofia; Monti, Valentina; Del Corso, Giacomo; Marchetti, Claudio; Montebugnoli, Lucio; Foschini, Maria PiaMorandi, Luca; Gissi, Davide; Tarsitano, Achille; Asioli, Sofia; Monti, Valentina; Del Corso, Giacomo; Marchetti, Claudio; Montebugnoli, Lucio; Foschini, Maria Pi

13-gene DNA Methylation Analysis from Oral Brushing: A Promising Non Invasive Tool in the Follow-up of Oral Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a non-invasive sampling procedure based on 13-gene DNA methylation analysis in the follow-up of patients previously treated for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). METHODS: The study population included 49 consecutive patients treated for OSCC. Oral brushing sample collection was performed at two different times: before any cancer treatment in the tumor mass and during patient follow-up almost 6 months after OSCC treatment, within the regenerative area after OSCC resection. Each sample was considered positive or negative in relation to a predefined cut-off value. RESULTS: Before any cancer treatment, 47/49 specimens exceeded the score and were considered as positive. Six months after OSCC resection, 16/49 specimens also had positive scores in the samples collected from the regenerative area. During the follow-up period, 7/49 patients developed locoregional relapse: 6/7 patients had a positive score in the regenerative area after OSCC resection. The presence of a positive score after oral cancer treatment was the most powerful variable related to the appearance of locoregional relapse. CONCLUSION: 13-gene DNA methylation analysis by oral brushing may have a clinical application as a prognostic non-invasive tool in the follow-up of patients surgically treated for OSCC

Multimodality Imaging of Sudden Cardiac Death and Acute Complications in Acute Coronary Syndrome

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a potentially fatal event usually caused by a cardiac arrhythmia, which is often the result of coronary artery disease (CAD). Up to 80% of patients suffering from SCD have concomitant CAD. Arrhythmic complications may occur in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) before admission, during revascularization procedures, and in hospital intensive care monitoring. In addition, about 20% of patients who survive cardiac arrest develop a transmural myocardial infarction (MI). Prevention of ACS can be evaluated in selected patients using cardiac computed tomography angiography (CCTA), while diagnosis can be depicted using electrocardiography (ECG), and complications can be evaluated with cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and echocardiography. CCTA can evaluate plaque, burden of disease, stenosis, and adverse plaque characteristics, in patients with chest pain. ECG and echocardiography are the first-line tests for ACS and are affordable and useful for diagnosis. CMR can evaluate function and the presence of complications after ACS, such as development of ventricular thrombus and presence of myocardial tissue characterization abnormalities that can be the substrate of ventricular arrhythmias

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Is there a best model? : a radioecological case study

Mathematical models are extensively used to support decision-making in many disciplines. Nevertheless there are not clear standard guidelines to assess models performance. This significantly affects model selection processes, which aim to determine the "best model", among several possible candidates. Model performance is often measured by the accuracy with which models predictions fit independent observations. However this test assesses only a single aspect of a model. A model selection process should establish the similarities between the constructed and the conceptual model. Therefore it should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the models capabilities, which is the objective of the multi-aspect comparison approach proposed in this work. The innovative aspect of this approach is to create a relationship among four conventional tests, i.e. uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, goodness-of-fit prediction-observations, model complexity and level of details, in order to provide a reliable estimation of the differences between the constructed and conceptual models. Although, model complexity is quantified using a standard approach, a novel methodology is proposed in this thesis, intended to be an intuitive and illustrative approach in creating a linkage between model complexity and level of detail. Five radioecological models have been considered: SAVE rural model, TEMAS rural model, SAVE semi-natural model, FORM and RIFE1. The results show that there is a limited resemblance between these models and the respective conceptual models. This is due to low prediction accuracy (RIFE1 and FORM); high level of uncertainty (SAVE rural); sensitivity to parameters which is not consistent with the current understanding of radiocaesium behaviour in the environment (TEMAS and SAVE rural). The SAVE rural model has been revisited in order to increase the similarity between the constructed and conceptual model. The resulting model prediction shows lower degree of uncertainty and there is a significant agreement between the model sensitivity results and the general understanding of the processes affecting Cs soil-to-plant transfer. Nonetheless the revised model does not show higher prediction accuracy than the original model. It is concluded that a reliable methodology for model selection should be based on a comprehensive investigation of each considered model aspect and that there is not a single best approach. The methodology proposed in this work has been successful in the case of the five radioecological models studied.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Optimal Cooperative Brake Distribution Strategy for IWM Vehicle Accounting for Electric and Friction Braking Torques

Electric vehicles are spreading in automotive industry pushed by the need of reducing greenhouse gas. However, the use of multiple electric motors, i.e., one per wheel, allows to redefine the vehicle powertrain layout with great benefits on vehicle dynamics. Electric motors braking torque is in general not enough to produce high decelerations. Hydraulic friction brakes are still necessary for safety reasons and to avoid oversized motors. This paper presents a control strategy for distributed electric motors (EM), one per wheel, to maximize the regenerative braking. The controller handles cooperative braking among EMs and hydraulic brakes, which are still necessary to guarantee top braking performance of the car. The proposed algorithm considers the driver requested braking torque as well as the required yaw moment by stability control system. Motor efficiency map and wheel normal load are considered to optimally distribute the torques. With respect to conventional distribution strategies, the presented algorithm improves performance, maximizing the regenerative braking power

Modeling of a single wheel test bench for blended electric and hydraulic brake testing

Electric vehicles offer several possibilities of reinventing the vehicle powertrain layout. A very promising solution is represented by in-wheel motors (IWM) since the driving torque can be easily distributed among the wheels. Moreover, IWM can provide braking, thus regenerative, torque. However, the size of IWM is not enough to brake the car at maximum deceleration, hydraulic brakes are still necessary. It is of paramount importance to coordinate these two actuators thus avoiding possible instabilities. This paper presents a test bench to test control strategies for blended electric and hydraulic braking control strategies

Comparison between different energy management algorithms for an urban electric bus with hybrid energy storage system based on battery and supercapacitors

Electric vehicles are an interesting research field for the automotive industry, especially for fully electrical urban buses. Their particular path-defined frequent and consecutive stops close together encourage the usage of supercapacitors, which have a longer service life than rechargeable batteries, and the battery would only be used as a backup energy source. This means a hybrid energy system where an energy management function splits the power request between the two onboard energy storage systems. Two different real-time control algorithms previously developed are briefly presented and numerically tested by means of virtual simulation in order to compare their different behaviour and evaluate their performance compared to an optimal offline control logic based on the dynamic programming approach