The art of the deal: Machine learning based trade promotion evaluation

As campanhas promocionais são estratégias de Marketing complexas, involvendo as dinâmicas dos retalhistas e dos consumidores finais. Estas promoções são sensíveis ao seu enquadramento promocional, ou seja, o seu sucesso depende das promoções passadas e das iniciativas e respostas da competição. No setor de bens de consumo, a intensidade promocional tem vindo a aumentar, sendo que as vendas promocionais são atualmente uma porção muito significativa das vendas totais, o que faz do planeamento promocional um processo crucial. Neste contexto, este trabalho propõe um sistema de apoio à decisão capaz de avaliar o sucesso de uma promoção hipotética, tendo em conta dados históricos, para ajudar no processo de planeamento promocional de duas linhas de produtos de uma empresa de bens de consumo. No cerne deste sistema de apoio à decisão, um modelo preditivo, baseado em algoritmos de Machine Learning, que usará dados de promoções passadas e outras variáveis explicativas, de forma a prever melhor o desempenho de uma promoção futura. Este trabalho usa vários conceitos de diversas áreas, nomeadamente, Marketing, Economia, Forecasting, Machine learning e Data mining, que são introduzidas sucintamente.Trade promotions are a complex marketing strategy to drive up sales, involving retailer and consumer dynamics. Furthermore, these events are time-sensitive, influenced by past promotions and both competitor initiatives and responses. In the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sector, the proportion of price-promoted sales to regular-priced sales has increased to a very significant level. Given their relevance to the manufacturer's revenue, proper promotional planning is crucial. In this context, this work proposes a decision support system capable of evaluating a hypothetical trade promotion's success, based on historic data, to be used for the promotional planning process of two key product lines of a CPG manufacturer. At the core of this decision support system, a predictive model, based on machine learning algorithms, will leverage both time series data and predictor variables, in order to better predict future promotional performance. This work pulls from many different branches of knowledge namely, Marketing, Economics, Forecasting, Machine learning and Data mining, areas which are briefly introduced

O estudo da ‘forma-dinâmica’ urbana através do mapping de dinâmicas sociais e da apropriação espacial

O artigo aprofunda a correlação entre forma urbana e mapeamento de dinâmicas sócio-espaciais, decorrentes do rastreamento de fluxos urbanos com recurso a dispositivos comunicacionais móveis (por exemplo, smartphone e tablet). Entende-se que deve ser incluído na análise morfológica o desdobramento com que atualmente se experiência espaços urbanos, exponenciado pela conexão digital e acesso à internet, com apoio de plataformas digitais que processam grande diversidade de dados individuais e coletivos (exploratórios e estruturados), para além de georreferenciados em tempo real. A profusão de atividades e usos que ocorrem nos espaços urbanos requer o reconhecimento que os fluxos são aspetos-chave na análise da forma urbana. Considera-se determinante rastrear vivências urbanas, mapeando-as. O argumento apresentado prende-se com a convergência da noção de ‘forma- dinâmica’ urbana e o desenvolvimento de mapping de dinâmicas sociais e da apropriação espacial. Alude-se à interoperatividade e à multidimensionalidade de leituras processadas em modo combinatório na análise morfológica, amplificando o estudo da forma urbana. A inter-relação de métodos de análise morfológica deverá tornar explícitas, estruturadamente, regras implícitas de dinâmicas detetadas na forma urbana, consolidando a interdependência entre configuração física do sistema espacial, a perceção que dele se tem e que padrões de apropriações se conformam nos espaços urbanos.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Pursuing Parameters for Critical Density Dark Matter Models

We present an extensive comparison of models of structure formation with observations, based on linear and quasi-linear theory. We assume a critical matter density, and study both cold dark matter models and cold plus hot dark matter models. We explore a wide range of parameters, by varying the fraction of hot dark matter $\Omega_{\nu}$, the Hubble parameter $h$ and the spectral index of density perturbations $n$, and allowing for the possibility of gravitational waves from inflation influencing large-angle microwave background anisotropies. New calculations are made of the transfer functions describing the linear power spectrum, with special emphasis on improving the accuracy on short scales where there are strong constraints. For assessing early object formation, the transfer functions are explicitly evaluated at the appropriate redshift. The observations considered are the four-year {\it COBE} observations of microwave background anisotropies, peculiar velocity flows, the galaxy correlation function, and the abundances of galaxy clusters, quasars and damped Lyman alpha systems. Each observation is interpreted in terms of the power spectrum filtered by a top-hat window function. We find that there remains a viable region of parameter space for critical-density models when all the dark matter is cold, though $h$ must be less than 0.5 before any fit is found and $n$ significantly below unity is preferred. Once a hot dark matter component is invoked, a wide parameter space is acceptable, including $n\simeq 1$. The allowed region is characterized by \Omega_\nu \la 0.35 and 0.60 \la n \la 1.25, at 95 per cent confidence on at least one piece of data. There is no useful lower bound on $h$, and for curious combinations of the other parameters it is possible to fit the data with $h$ as high as 0.65.Comment: 19 pages LaTeX file (uses mn.sty). Figures *not* included due to length. We strongly recommend obtaining the full paper, either by WWW at http://star-www.maps.susx.ac.uk/papers/lsstru_papers.html (UK) or http://www.bartol.udel.edu/~bob/papers (US), or by e-mailing ARL. Final version, to appear MNRAS. Main revision is update to four-year COBE data. Miscellaneous other changes and reference updates. No significant changes to principal conclusion

THE IMPACT OF BEAN RESEARCH IN HONDURAS

Since the mid-1980s, bean research in Honduras has focused on the development of improved varieties resistant to key diseases, principally Bean Golden Yellow Mosaic Virus (BGYMV), one of the main constraints to bean production in the country. This paper presents evidence of recent adoption rates of improved bean varieties, the farm-level economic impact of adoption, and the ex post rate of return to bean research in Honduras from 1982-2010. Results from a 2001 farm-level survey in the two principal bean-producing regions in Honduras show that 46 to 51% of bean farmers (depending upon the season) have adopted an improved variety, and that adoption is scale-neutral with respect to farm-size and market orientation. Due to the potential problem of sample selection bias in the adoption of disease-resistant varieties, the farm-level impact of the new varieties was estimated using experimental data to approximate the yield differential between resistant and non-resistant varieties under disease pressure, and survey data was used to approximate the frequency of disease incidence in farmers' fields. An expected utility framework assuming risk neutrality demonstrates that adopters gain an average of 20% in bean income from increased yield stability under disease pressure, although these gains are reduced by 7 to 16% due to market price discounts for the resistant varieties. Under base-level assumptions, the economic rate of return bean research in Honduras during the period 1982-2010 is 40 %.Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Cidade Africana - urbanismo [in]formal: uma abordagem integrada e sistémica

The African City forces the reconceptualization of common formal and quite static strategies close to regular and tight planning. Among others considerations that will be explore in the paper, most African cities demand growing net articulation between their formal centre and vast informal polymorphic suburban housing areas. It is necessary to think about planning proposals that aim to consolidate an improved adapted adjustment between regular patterns (attached to macro scale planning) and plural configurations of self organized city, based on micro stratagems developed by indigent citizens on their everyday life (Koolhaas define it as "real time solutions" for "real time problems"). This inclusive and systemic urban paradigm relays on nature and collective/public spaces as major elements to reassemble fragmented African urban spaces: [re]developing wide [re]distribute social services, public equipments and civic infrastructures in the extension of African City – formal urban progress articulated with improvement of informal living human conditions, combining both with overall sustainability

Maputo: transformación de una estructura urbana de origen portugués. Una contribución para la recalificación del espacio urbano

Resumen de la tesis doctoral «Transformação de uma estrutura urbana de origem portuguesa. Um contributo para a requalificação do espaço urbano», defendida por D. David Manuel Leite dos Santos Viana en el Instituto Universitario de Urbanística de la Universidad de Valladolid el 15 de diciembre de 2008. Directores: Dr. Juan Luis de las Rivas Sanz (Universidad de Valladolid) y Fernando Manuel Brandão Alves (Universidad de Oporto). Tribunal: Dr. Alfonso Álvarez Mora, Dr. Agustín Hernández Aja, Dr. João Gabriel Viana de Sousa Morais, Dr. Xosé Lois Martínez Suárez y Dr. Luis Santos Ganges

Evaluating spatiotemporal modal accessibility to community pharmacy services in Lisbon municipality

There are several studies on accessibility to community pharmacy services, emphasizing it as an important element to help address public health and to promote the well-being of the population by providing a very broad array of pharmaceutical services. However, the majority focuses on pedestrian and/or car geographical accessibility, somehow ignoring both the temporal inequity and the influence of the choice of transportation mode. In this paper, we present both spatial and temporal accessibility perspectives to community pharmacy services considering five periods depicting the operational hours of the facilities, and two different travel modes - walking and public transport (PT). In addition, a disparity index is calculated to understand the influence that the transport mode exerts on accessibility to the facilities.N/

Maputo: transformación de una estructura urbana de origen portugués. Una contribución para la recalificación del espacio urbano

Summary of doctoral thesis «Transformação de uma estrutura urbana de origem portuguesa. Um contributo para a requalificação do espaço urbano» by Mr. David Manuel Leite dos Santos Viana in the University Institute for Urban Research of the University of Valladolid on December 15th, 2008 Directors: Dr. Juan Luis de las Rivas Sanz (University of Valladolid) and Fernando Manuel Brandão Alves (University of Oporto). Board: Dr. Alfonso Álvarez Mora, Dr. Agustín Hernández Aja, Dr. João Gabriel Viana de Sousa Morais, Dr. Xosé Lois Martínez Suárez and Dr. Luis Santos Ganges.Resumen de la tesis doctoral «Transformação de uma estrutura urbana de origem portuguesa. Um contributo para a requalificação do espaço urbano», defendida por D. David Manuel Leite dos Santos Viana en el Instituto Universitario de Urbanística de la Universidad de Valladolid el 15 de diciembre de 2008. Directores: Dr. Juan Luis de las Rivas Sanz (Universidad de Valladolid) y Fernando Manuel Brandão Alves (Universidad de Oporto). Tribunal: Dr. Alfonso Álvarez Mora, Dr. Agustín Hernández Aja, Dr. João Gabriel Viana de Sousa Morais, Dr. Xosé Lois Martínez Suárez y Dr. Luis Santos Ganges