Broadway as Global Brand

For people around the world, Broadway\u27\u27 means the Broadway musical, the epitome of singing and dancing, glamor and dazzle. Although the Broadway musical is customarily perceived as the most distinctively U.S. theatre form - whose national and municipal identity is embedded in its name - it has circumnavigated the globe countless times. As the globalized cultural economy increasingly facilitates the worldwide circulation of multinational theatrical productions, Broadway-style musicals are being manufactured from Hamburg to Shanghai. They are no longer a specifically U.S. form, but a global brand that freely crosses borders, genres, and styles

Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) experiment, conducted within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), showed that the smoothed seismicity (HKJ) model by Helmstetter et al. was the most informative time-independent earthquake model in California during the 2006–2010 evaluation period. The diversity of competing forecast hypotheses and geophysical data sets used in RELM was suitable for combining multiple models that could provide more informative earthquake forecasts than HKJ. Thus, Rhoades et al. created multiplicative hybrid models that involve the HKJ model as a baseline and one or more conjugate models. In retrospective evaluations, some hybrid models showed significant information gains over the HKJ forecast. Here, we prospectively assess the predictive skills of 16 hybrids and 6 original RELM forecasts at a 0.05 significance level, using a suite of traditional and new CSEP tests that rely on a Poisson and a binary likelihood function. In addition, we include consistency test results at a Bonferroni-adjusted significance level of 0.025 to address the problem of multiple tests. Furthermore, we compare the performance of each forecast to that of HKJ. The evaluation data set contains 40 target events recorded within the CSEP California testing region from 2011 January 1 to 2020 December 31, including the 2016 Hawthorne earthquake swarm in southwestern Nevada and the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. Consistency test results show that most forecasting models overestimate the number of earthquakes and struggle to explain the spatial distribution of epicenters, especially in the case of seismicity clusters. The binary likelihood function significantly reduces the sensitivity of spatial log-likelihood scores to clustering, however; most models still fail to adequately describe spatial earthquake patterns. Contrary to retrospective analyses, our prospective test results show that none of the models are significantly more informative than the HKJ benchmark forecast, which we interpret to be due to temporal instabilities in the fit that forms hybrids. These results suggest that smoothing high-resolution, small earthquake data remains a robust method for forecasting moderate-to-large earthquakes over a period of 5–15 yr in California.This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 821115, Real-time earthquake rIsk reduction for a reSilient Europe (RISE), http://www.rise-eu.org). Additionally, this research was supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (contribution no. 11011). SCEC is funded by NSF Cooperative agreement EAR-1600087 and USGS Cooperative agreement G17AC00047

Pseudo-prospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts During the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence

The 2019 Ridgecrest sequence provides the first opportunity to evaluate Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 with epidemic‐type aftershock sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The metrics consider synthetic catalogs simulated by the models rather than synoptic probability maps, thereby relaxing the Poisson assumption of previous CSEP tests. Our approach compares statistics from the synthetic catalogs directly against observations, providing a flexible approach that can account for dependencies and uncertainties encoded in the models. We find that, to the first order, both UCERF3‐ETAS and UCERF3‐NoFaults approximately capture the spatiotemporal evolution of the Ridgecrest sequence, adding to the growing body of evidence that ETAS models can be informative forecasting tools. However, we also find that both models mildly overpredict the seismicity rate, on average, aggregated over the evaluation period. More severe testing indicates the overpredictions occur too often for observations to be statistically indistinguishable from the model. Magnitude tests indicate that the models do not include enough variability in forecasted magnitude‐number distributions to match the data. Spatial tests highlight discrepancies between the forecasts and observations, but the greatest differences between the two models appear when aftershocks occur on modeled UCERF3‐ETAS faults. Therefore, any predictability associated with embedding earthquake triggering on the (modeled) fault network may only crystalize during the presumably rare sequences with aftershocks on these faults. Accounting for uncertainty in the model parameters could improve test results during future experiments.Maximilian J. Werner and Warner Marzocchi received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Number 821115, RISE: Real‐Time Earthquake Risk Reduction for a Resilient Europe). This research was supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC; Contribution Number 10082). SCEC is funded by National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR‐1600087 and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G17AC00047

“Let Our Freak Flags Fly”: Shrek the Musical and the Branding of Diversity

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/theatre_journal/v062/62.2.brater.html“’Let Our Freak Flags Fly’: Shrek the Musical and the Branding of Diversity” argues that DreamWorks used Shrek the Musical to exploit a generic theme of multiculturalism to extend the reach of the Shrek franchise and challenge Disney’s domination of the Broadway market. By bringing a political-economic analysis to bear on the study of commercial theatre, the essay shows that DreamWorks’s marketing strategy—diversification—provided the theme—diversity—for the product it was employing to implement that strategy. Yet because Shrek’s multicultural message is contradicted by the blatant racial stereotyping of Donkey, Shrek’s “jive-spouting sidekick,” the musical in fact epitomizes the contradictions that inform multiculturalism in the early twenty-first-century marketplace and functions as an unlikely emblem of the Age of Obam

The Forecasting Skill of Physics‐Based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models remains controversial, especially compared with empirical statistical models. A previous evaluation by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) concluded that a suite of coulomb-based seismicity models were less informative than empirical models during the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. Recently, a new generation of coulomb-based and coulomb/statistical hybrid models were developed that account better for uncertainties and secondary stress sources. Here, we report on the performance of this new suite of models compared with empirical epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Comprising the 2010 M 7.1 Darfield earthquake and three subsequent M = 5:9 shocks (including the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake), this sequence provides a wealth of data (394 M = 3:95 shocks). We assessed models over multiple forecast horizons (1 day, 1 month, and 1 yr, updated after M = 5:9 shocks). The results demonstrate substantial improvements in the coulomb-based models. Purely physics-based models have a performance comparable to the ETAS model, and the two coulomb/statistical hybrids perform better or similar to the corresponding statistical model. On the other hand, an ETAS model with anisotropic (fault-based) aftershock zones is just as informative. These results provide encouraging evidence for the predictive power of coulomb-based models. To assist with model development, we identify discrepancies between forecasts and observations. © 2018 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved

Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12

We measured the Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12 within the FAIR Phase-0 program at GSI Helmholtzzentrum fur Schwerionenforschung Darmstadt, Germany. From this we will extract the photon dissociation cross section O-16(alpha,gamma)C-12, which is the time reversed reaction to C-12(alpha,gamma)O-16. With this indirect method, we aim to improve on the accuracy of the experimental data at lower energies than measured so far. The expected low cross section for the Coulomb dissociation reaction and close magnetic rigidity of beam and fragments demand a high precision measurement. Hence, new detector systems were built and radical changes to the (RB)-B-3 setup were necessary to cope with the high-intensity O-16 beam. All tracking detectors were designed to let the unreacted O-16 ions pass, while detecting the C-12 and He-4

Coulomb dissociation of 16O into 4He and 12C

We measured the Coulomb dissociation of 16O into 4He and 12C at the R3B setup in a first campaign within FAIR Phase 0 at GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt. The goal was to improve the accuracy of the experimental data for the 12C(a,?)16O fusion reaction and to reach lower center-ofmass energies than measured so far. The experiment required beam intensities of 109 16O ions per second at an energy of 500 MeV/nucleon. The rare case of Coulomb breakup into 12C and 4He posed another challenge: The magnetic rigidities of the particles are so close because of the same mass-To-charge-number ratio A/Z = 2 for 16O, 12C and 4He. Hence, radical changes of the R3B setup were necessary. All detectors had slits to allow the passage of the unreacted 16O ions, while 4He and 12C would hit the detectors' active areas depending on the scattering angle and their relative energies. We developed and built detectors based on organic scintillators to track and identify the reaction products with sufficient precision