Characterizing the contaminating distance distribution for Bayesian supernova cosmology

Measurements of the equation of state of dark energy from surveys of thousands of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) will be limited by spectroscopic follow-up and must therefore rely on photometric identification, increasing the chance that the sample is contaminated by Core Collapse Supernovae (CC SNe). Bayesian methods for supernova cosmology can remove contamination bias while maintaining high statistical precision but are sensitive to the choice of parameterization of the contaminating distance distribution. We use simulations to investigate the form of the contaminating distribution and its dependence on the absolute magnitudes, light curve shapes, colors, extinction, and redshifts of core collapse supernovae. We find that the CC luminosity function dominates the distance distribution function, but its shape is increasingly distorted as the redshift increases and more CC SNe fall below the survey magnitude limit. The shapes and colors of the CC light curves generally shift the distance distribution, and their effect on the CC distances is correlated. We compare the simulated distances to the first year results of the SDSS-II SN survey and find that the SDSS distance distributions can be reproduced with simulated CC SNe that are ~1 mag fainter than the standard Richardson et al. (2002) luminosity functions, which do not produce a good fit. To exploit the full power of the Bayesian parameter estimation method, parameterization of the contaminating distribution should be guided by the current knowledge of the CC luminosity functions, coupled with the effects of the survey selection and magnitude-limit, and allow for systematic shifts caused by the parameters of the distance fit.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures; accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

The Deepest Supernova Search is Realized in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field Survey

The Hubble Ultra Deep Field Survey has not only provided the deepest optical and near infrared views of universe, but has enabled a search for the most distant supernovae to z~2.2. We have found four supernovae by searching spans of integrations of the Ultra Deep Field and the Ultra Deep Field Parallels taken with the Hubble Space Telescope paired with the Advanced Camera for Surveys and the Near Infrared Multi Object Spectrometer. Interestingly, none of these supernovae were at z>1.4, despite the substantially increased sensitivity per unit area to such objects over the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey. We present the optical photometric data for the four supernovae. We also show that the low frequency of Type Ia supernovae observed at z>1.4 is statistically consistent with current estimates of the global star formation history combined with the non-trivial assembly time of SN Ia progenitors.Comment: 24 pages (6 figures), submitted to the Astronomical Journa

Cost analysis of the CTLB Study, a multitherapy antenatal education programme to reduce routine interventions in labour

Objective: To assess whether the multitherapy antenatal education ‘CTLB’ (Complementary Therapies for Labour and Birth) Study programme leads to net cost savings. Design: Cost analysis of the CTLB Study, using analysis of outcomes and hospital funding data. Methods: We take a payer perspective and use Australian Refined Diagnosis-Related Group (AR-DRG) cost data to estimate the potential savings per woman to the payer (government or private insurer). We consider scenarios in which the intervention cost is either borne by the woman or by the payer. Savings are computed as the difference in total cost between the control group and the study group. Results: If the cost of the intervention is not borne by the payer, the average saving to the payer was calculated to be $A808 per woman. If the payer covers the cost of the programme, this figure reduces to$A659 since the average cost of delivering the programme was $A149 per woman. All these findings are significant at the 95Conclusion: The CTLB antenatal education programme leads to significant savings to payers that come from reduced use of hospital resources. Depending on which perspective is considered, and who is responsible for covering the cost of the programme, the net savings vary from$A659 to $A808 per woman. Compared with the average cost of birth in the control group, we conclude that the programme could lead to a reduction in birth-related healthcare costs of approximately 9%. Trial registration number: ACTRN12611001126909

A Novel Approach to Recreational Reading: Creating a Virtual Collection on a Shoestring

Reading for recreation has been tied to academic achievement and lifelong learning, but not all academic libraries have the capacity to offer a separate recreational reading collection for their users. A low/no-cost option is to create a virtual recreational reading collection that allows patrons to browse for print titles by genre or book cover, much as they would in a bookstore or physical collection. The authors recently implemented this solution at their institution by dynamically compiling records of existing titles belonging to genres that are often of interest to recreational readers. This article addresses the justification for investing staff time in promoting recreational reading, discusses the technology employed to create and maintain a virtual collection, and shares the impacts of this effort on circulation

The Dwarf Starburst Host Galaxy of a Type Ia SN at z = 1.55 from CANDELS

We present VLT/X-shooter observations of a high redshift, type Ia supernova host galaxy, discovered with HST/WFC3 as part of the CANDELS Supernova project. The galaxy exhibits strong emission lines of Ly{\alpha}, [O II], H{\beta}, [O III], and H{\alpha} at z = 1.54992(+0.00008-0.00004). From the emission-line fluxes and SED fitting of broad-band photometry we rule out AGN activity and characterize the host galaxy as a young, low mass, metal poor, starburst galaxy with low intrinsic extinction and high Ly{\alpha} escape fraction. The host galaxy stands out in terms of the star formation, stellar mass, and metallicity compared to its lower redshift counterparts, mainly because of its high specific star-formation rate. If valid for a larger sample of high-redshift SN Ia host galaxies, such changes in the host galaxy properties with redshift are of interest because of the potential impact on the use of SN Ia as standard candles in cosmology.Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

The Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background is detectable in Super-Kamiokande

The Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB) provides an immediate opportunity to study the emission of MeV thermal neutrinos from core-collapse supernovae. The DSNB is a powerful probe of stellar and neutrino physics, provided that the core-collapse rate is large enough and that its uncertainty is small enough. To assess the important physics enabled by the DSNB, we start with the cosmic star formation history of Hopkins & Beacom (2006) and confirm its normalization and evolution by cross-checks with the supernova rate, extragalactic background light, and stellar mass density. We find a sufficient core-collapse rate with small uncertainties that translate into a variation of +/- 40% in the DSNB event spectrum. Considering thermal neutrino spectra with effective temperatures between 4-6 MeV, the predicted DSNB is within a factor 4-2 below the upper limit obtained by Super-Kamiokande in 2003. Furthermore, detection prospects would be dramatically improved with a gadolinium-enhanced Super-Kamiokande: the backgrounds would be significantly reduced, the fluxes and uncertainties converge at the lower threshold energy, and the predicted event rate is 1.2-5.6 events /yr in the energy range 10-26 MeV. These results demonstrate the imminent detection of the DSNB by Super-Kamiokande and its exciting prospects for studying stellar and neutrino physics.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, some added discussions, accepted for publication in Physical Review

Synoptic Sky Surveys and the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background: Removing Astrophysical Uncertainties and Revealing Invisible Supernovae

The cumulative (anti)neutrino production from all core-collapse supernovae within our cosmic horizon gives rise to the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB), which is on the verge of detectability. The observed flux depends on supernova physics, but also on the cosmic history of supernova explosions; currently, the cosmic supernova rate introduces a substantial (+/-40%) uncertainty, largely through its absolute normalization. However, a new class of wide-field, repeated-scan (synoptic) optical sky surveys is coming online, and will map the sky in the time domain with unprecedented depth, completeness, and dynamic range. We show that these surveys will obtain the cosmic supernova rate by direct counting, in an unbiased way and with high statistics, and thus will allow for precise predictions of the DSNB. Upcoming sky surveys will substantially reduce the uncertainties in the DSNB source history to an anticipated +/-5% that is dominated by systematics, so that the observed high-energy flux thus will test supernova neutrino physics. The portion of the universe (z < 1) accessible to upcoming sky surveys includes the progenitors of a large fraction (~ 87%) of the expected 10-26 MeV DSNB event rate. We show that precision determination of the (optically detected) cosmic supernova history will also make the DSNB into a strong probe of an extra flux of neutrinos from optically invisible supernovae, which may be unseen either due to unexpected large dust obscuration in host galaxies, or because some core-collapse events proceed directly to black hole formation and fail to give an optical outburst.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

Empirical Delay Time Distributions of Type Ia Supernovae From The Extended GOODS/HST Supernova Survey

Using the Hubble Space Telescope ACS imaging of the GOODS North and South fields during Cycles 11, 12, and 13, we derive empirical constraints on the delay-time distribution function for type Ia supernovae. We extend our previous analysis to the three-year sample of 56 SNe Ia over the range 0.2<z<1.8, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to determine the best-fit unimodal delay-time distribution function. The test, which ultimately compares the star formation rate density history to the unbinned volumetric SN Ia rate history from the GOODS/HST-SN survey, reveals a SN Ia delay-time distribution that is tightly confined to 3-4 Gyrs (to >95% confidence). This result is difficult to resolve with any intrinsic delay-time distribution function (bimodal or otherwise), in which a substantial fraction (e.g., >10%) of events are ``prompt'', requiring less than approximately 1 Gyr to develop from formation to explosion. The result is, however, strongly motivated by the decline in the number of SNe Ia at z>1.2. Sub-samples of the HST-SN data confined to lower redshifts (z<1) show plausible delay-time distributions that are dominated by prompt events, which is more consistent with results from low-redshift supernova samples and supernova host galaxy properties. Scenarios in which a substantial fraction of z>1.2 supernovae are extraordinarily obscured by dust may partly explain the differences in low-z and high-z results. Other possible resolutions may include environmental dependencies (such as gas-phase metallicity) that affect the progenitor mechanism efficiency, especially in the early universe.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted to the Astrophysical Journa