Increasing Clinical Virulence in Two Decades of the Italian HIV Epidemic

The recent origin and great evolutionary potential of HIV imply that the virulence of the virus might still be changing, which could greatly affect the future of the pandemic. However, previous studies of time trends of HIV virulence have yielded conflicting results. Here we used an established methodology to assess time trends in the severity (virulence) of untreated HIV infections in a large Italian cohort. We characterized clinical virulence by the decline slope of the CD4 count (n = 1423 patients) and the viral setpoint (n = 785 patients) in untreated patients with sufficient data points. We used linear regression models to detect correlations between the date of diagnosis (ranging 1984–2006) and the virulence markers, controlling for gender, exposure category, age, and CD4 count at entry. The decline slope of the CD4 count and the viral setpoint displayed highly significant correlation with the date of diagnosis pointing in the direction of increasing virulence. A detailed analysis of riskgroups revealed that the epidemics of intravenous drug users started with an apparently less virulent virus, but experienced the strongest trend towards steeper CD4 decline among the major exposure categories. While our study did not allow us to exclude the effect of potential time trends in host factors, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of increasing HIV virulence. Importantly, the use of an established methodology allowed for a comparison with earlier results, which confirmed that genuine differences exist in the time trends of HIV virulence between different epidemics. We thus conclude that there is not a single global trend of HIV virulence, and results obtained in one epidemic cannot be extrapolated to others. Comparison of discordant patterns between riskgroups and epidemics hints at a converging trend, which might indicate that an optimal level of virulence might exist for the virus

CD4 cell count and the risk of AIDS or death in HIV-Infected adults on combination antiretroviral therapy with a suppressed viral load: a longitudinal cohort study from COHERE.

BACKGROUND: Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements 500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50-500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30-0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71-0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66-0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92-0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl

Change of Positive Selection Pressure on HIV-1 Envelope Gene Inferred by Early and Recent Samples

HIV-1 infection has been on the rise in Japan recently, and the main transmission route has changed from blood transmission in the 1980s to homo- and/or hetero-sexual transmission in the 2000s. The lack of early viral samples with clinical information made it difficult to investigate the possible virological changes over time. In this study, we sequenced 142 full-length env genes collected from 16 Japanese subjects infected with HIV-1 in the 1980s and in the 2000s. We examined the diversity change in sequences and potential adaptive evolution of the virus to the host population. We used a codon-based likelihood method under the branch-site and clade models to detect positive selection operating on the virus. The clade model was extended to account for different positive selection pressures in different viral populations. The result showed that the selection pressure was weaker in the 2000s than in the 1980s, indicating that it might have become easier for the HIV to infect a new host and to develop into AIDS now than 20 years ago and that the HIV may be becoming more virulent in the Japanese population. The study provides useful information on the surveillance of HIV infection and highlights the utility of the extended clade models in analysis of virus populations which may be under different selection pressures

Pretreatment CD4 Cell Slope and Progression to AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy—The CASCADE Collaboration: A Collaboration of 23 Cohort Studies

Analyzing data from several thousand cohort study participants, Marcel Wolbers and colleagues find that the rate of CD4 T cell decline is not useful in deciding when to start HIV treatment

Higher rates of triple-class virological failure in perinatally HIV-infected teenagers compared with heterosexually infected young adults in Europe

Objectives The aim of the study was to determine the time to, and risk factors for, triple-class virological failure (TCVF) across age groups for children and adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV infection and older adolescents and adults with heterosexually acquired HIV infection. Methods We analysed individual patient data from cohorts in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE). A total of 5972 participants starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 1998, aged 500 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL despite >= 4 months of use. TCVF was defined as cumulative failure of two NRTIs, an NNRTI and a bPI. Results The median number of weeks between diagnosis and the start of ART was higher in participants with perinatal HIV infection compared with participants with heterosexually acquired HIV infection overall [17 (interquartile range (IQR) 4-111) vs. 8 (IQR 2-38) weeks, respectively], and highest in perinatally infected participants aged 10-14 years [49 (IQR 9-267) weeks]. The cumulative proportion with TCVF 5 years after starting ART was 9.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.0-12.3%] in participants with perinatally acquired infection and 4.7% (95% CI 3.9-5.5%) in participants with heterosexually acquired infection, and highest in perinatally infected participants aged 10-14 years when starting ART (27.7%; 95% CI 13.2-42.1%). Across all participants, significant predictors of TCVF were those with perinatal HIV aged 10-14 years, African origin, pre-ART AIDS, NNRTI-based initial regimens, higher pre-ART viral load and lower pre-ART CD4. Conclusions The results suggest a beneficial effect of starting ART before adolescence, and starting young people on boosted PIs, to maximize treatment response during this transitional stage of development

Viral Load Levels Measured at Set-Point Have Risen Over the Last Decade of the HIV Epidemic in the Netherlands

HIV-1 RNA plasma concentration at viral set-point is associated not only with disease outcome but also with the transmission dynamics of HIV-1. We investigated whether plasma HIV-1 RNA concentration and CD4 cell count at viral set-point have changed over time in the HIV epidemic in the Netherlands.We selected 906 therapy-naïve patients with at least one plasma HIV-1 RNA concentration measured 9 to 27 months after estimated seroconversion. Changes in HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell count at viral set-point over time were analysed using linear regression models. The ATHENA national observational cohort contributed all patients who seroconverted in or after 1996; the Amsterdam Cohort Studies (ACS) contributed seroconverters before 1996. The mean of the first HIV-1 RNA concentration measured 9-27 months after seroconversion was 4.30 log(10) copies/ml (95% CI 4.17-4.42) for seroconverters from 1984 through 1995 (n = 163); 4.27 (4.16-4.37) for seroconverters 1996-2002 (n = 232), and 4.59 (4.52-4.66) for seroconverters 2003-2007 (n = 511). Compared to patients seroconverting between 2003-2007, the adjusted mean HIV-1 RNA concentration at set-point was 0.28 log(10) copies/ml (95% CI 0.16-0.40; p<0.0001) and 0.26 (0.11-0.41; p = 0.0006) lower for those seroconverting between 1996-2002 and 1984-1995, respectively. Results were robust regardless of type of HIV-1 RNA assay, HIV-1 subtype, and interval between measurement and seroconversion. CD4 cell count at viral set-point declined over calendar time at approximately 5 cells/mm(3)/year.The HIV-1 RNA plasma concentration at viral set-point has increased over the last decade of the HIV epidemic in the Netherlands. This is accompanied by a decreasing CD4 cell count over the period 1984-2007 and may have implications for both the course of the HIV infection and the epidemic

HCV Coinfection Associated with Slower Disease Progression in HIV-Infected Former Plasma Donors Naïve to ART

It remains controversial how HCV coinfection influences the disease progression during HIV-1 infection. This study aims to define the influence of HCV infection on the replication of HIV-1 and the disease progression in HIV-infected former plasma donors (FPDs) naïve to ART.168 HIV-1-infected FPDs were enrolled into a cohort study from Anhui province in central China, and thereafter monitored at month 3, 9, 15, 21 and 33. Fresh whole blood samples were used for CD4+ T-cell counting. Their plasma samples were collected and stored for quantification of HIV-1 viral loads and for determination of HCV and Toxoplasma. Out of 168 HIV-infected FBDs, 11.9% (20 cases), 80.4% (135 cases) and 7.7% (13 cases) were infected with HIV-1 alone, HIV-1/HCV and HIV/HCV/Toxoplasma, respectively. During the 33-month follow-up, only 35% (7 out of 20 cases) HIV-1 mono-infected subjects remained their CD4+ T-cell counts above 200 cells/µl and retained on the cohort study, which was significantly lower than 56% (75 out of 135 cases) for HIV/HCV group and 69% (9 out of 13 cases) for HIV/HCV/Toxoplasma group (p<0.05). CD4+ T cells in HIV mono infection group were consistently lower than that in HIV/HCV group (p = 0.04, 0.18, 0.03 and 0.04 for baseline, month 9, month 21 and month 33 visit, respectively). In accordance with those observations, HIV viral loads in HIV mono-infection group were consistently higher than that in HIV/HCV group though statistical significances were only reached at baseline (p = 0.04).These data indicated HCV coinfection with HIV-1 is associated with the slower disease progression at the very late stage when comparing with HIV-1 mono-infection. The coinfection of Toxoplasma with HIV and HCV did not exert additional influence on the disease progression. It will be highly interesting to further explore the underlying mechanism for this observation in the future

Does rapid HIV disease progression prior to combination antiretroviral therapy hinder optimal CD4 + T-cell recovery once HIV-1 suppression is achieved?

Objective: This article compares trends in CD4+ T-cell recovery and proportions achieving optimal restoration (>=500 cells/µl) after viral suppression following combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation between rapid and nonrapid progressors. Methods: We included HIV-1 seroconverters achieving viral suppression within 6 months of cART. Rapid progressors were individuals experiencing at least one CD4+ less than 200 cells/µl within 12 months of seroconverters before cART. We used piecewise linear mixed models and logistic regression for optimal restoration. Results: Of 4024 individuals, 294 (7.3%) were classified as rapid progressors. At the same CD4+ T-cell count at cART start (baseline), rapid progressors experienced faster CD4+ T-cell increases than nonrapid progressors in first month [difference (95% confidence interval) in mean increase/month (square root scale): 1.82 (1.61; 2.04)], which reversed to slightly slower increases in months 1–18 [-0.05 (-0.06; -0.03)] and no significant differences in 18–60 months [-0.003 (-0.01; 0.01)]. Percentage achieving optimal restoration was significantly lower for rapid progressors than nonrapid progressors at months 12 (29.2 vs. 62.5%) and 36 (47.1 vs. 72.4%) but not at month 60 (70.4 vs. 71.8%). These differences disappeared after adjusting for baseline CD4+ T-cell count: odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.86 (0.61; 1.20), 0.90 (0.38; 2.17) and 1.56 (0.55; 4.46) at months 12, 36 and 60, respectively. Conclusion: Among people on suppressive antiretroviral therapy, rapid progressors experience faster initial increases of CD4+ T-cell counts than nonrapid progressors, but are less likely to achieve optimal restoration during the first 36 months after cART, mainly because of lower CD4+ T-cell counts at cART initiation

Pattern of cancer risk in persons with AIDS in Italy in the HAART era

A record-linkage study was carried out between the Italian AIDS Registry and 24 Italian cancer registries to compare cancer excess among persons with HIV/AIDS (PWHA) before and after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996. Standardised incidence ratios (SIR) were computed in 21951 AIDS cases aged 16–69 years reported between 1986 and 2005. Of 101 669 person-years available, 45 026 were after 1996. SIR for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma greatly decreased in 1997–2004 compared with 1986–1996, but high SIRs for KS persisted in the increasingly large fraction of PWHA who had an interval of <1 year between first HIV-positive test and AIDS diagnosis. A significant excess of liver cancer (SIR=6.4) emerged in 1997–2004, whereas the SIRs for cancer of the cervix (41.5), anus (44.0), lung (4.1), brain (3.2), skin (non-melanoma, 1.8), Hodgkin lymphoma (20.7), myeloma (3.9), and non-AIDS-defining cancers (2.2) were similarly elevated in the two periods. The excess of some potentially preventable cancers in PWHA suggests that HAART use must be accompanied by cancer-prevention strategies, notably antismoking and cervical cancer screening programmes. Improvements in the timely identification of HIV-positive individuals are also a priority in Italy to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed HAART use

The impact of antiretroviral therapy on HPV and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: current evidence and directions for future research

Increasing numbers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women are now accessing life-prolonging highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in developing countries. There is a need for better understanding of interactions of human papillomavirus (HPV) and HIV, especially in the context of increasing life expectancy due to HAART. The data regarding the impact of HAART on reducing the incidence and progression and facilitating the regression of HPV infection and cervical abnormalities is largely inconsistent. Published studies differ in their study designs (prospective or retrospective cohorts or record linkage studies), screening and diagnostic protocols, duration and type of HAART use, recruitment and referral strategies, and definitions of screening test and disease positivity. Due to the ethical and resource limitations in conducting randomized trials of the impact of HAART on incidence of HPV, CIN, and cervical cancer among HIV-infected women, it is important to consider innovative study designs, including quasi-experimental trials and operations research in sentinel populations to answer the critical research questions in this area