Market access in global and regional trade

This paper develops a method to measure difficulties in market access over a large set of countries (both developing and developed) and industries, during the period 1980-2006. We use a micro-founded heterogeneous-consumers model to estimate the impact of national borders on global and regional trade flows. Results show that difficulties faced by developing countries' exporters in accessing developed markets are 50% higher than those faced by Northern exporters. These international fragmentations have however experienced a noticeable fall since 1980 in both Southern and Northern markets, and in all industries. It is twenty three times easier to enter those markets for a Southern country exporter in 2006 than in 1980. While tariffs still have an influence on trade patterns, they do not seem to explain an important part of the border effect. Last, our theory-based measure offers a renewal of the assessment of the impact of regional trading arrangements. The EU, NAFTA, ASEAN and MERCOSUR agreements all tend to reduce the estimated degree of market fragmentation within those zones, with the expected ranking between their respective trade impact.Market Access; North-South Trade; Regional integration; Border Effects; Gravity, Tariffs; Trade Costs; Distances

Seafloor Characterization from Spatial Variation of Multibeam Backscatter vs. Best Estimated Grazing Angle

Backscatter vs. grazing angle, which can be extracted from multibeam backscatter data, depends on characteristics of the multibeam system and the angular responses of backscatter that are characteristic of different seafloor properties, such as sediment hardness and roughness. Changes in backscatter vs. grazing angle that are contributed by the multibeam system normally remain fixed over both space and time. Therefore, they can readily be determined and removed from backscatter data. The component of backscatter vs. grazing angle due to the properties of sediments varies from location to location, as the sediment changes. The sediment component of variability can be inferred using the redundant observations from different grazing angles in several small sections of seafloor assuming that the sediment property is uniform in any given section of seafloor yet varies from one section of the seafloor to another. The multibeam data used in this research is from the ONR sponsored STRATAFORM project. The location of the study area was the mid-outer continental shelf off New Jersey. A small subset (11 x 17 km) of the NJ multibeam survey was selected and divided into 1380 equal working cells. The backscatter vs. grazing angle dependence for each cell was computed by averaging backscatter data by the corresponding grazing angles using all data with the same grazing angle from different survey lines. Taking into account the effects of local topographic variations of the seabed, the estimated grazing angle for each beam has been computed from available adjacent soundings within a 15-meter radius using a least squares fit with a Butterfly weighting function. A graphic interface was developed to ease evaluation of the spatial variation of backscatter vs. grazing angle. With a mouse click, images based on different subsets of the data can be compared throughout the survey area. The subsets were created from specific grazing angles. These images show significant variations between nadir and off-nadir beams. Variations apparent in the images may provide some indication of the sediment (or seafloor) characteristics, which can be compared to ground truth data (sediment grain size) and measured values such as velocity and density

A Link Between the Semi-Major Axis of Extrasolar Gas Giant Planets and Stellar Metallicity

The fact that most extrasolar planets found to date are orbiting metal-rich stars lends credence to the core accretion mechanism of gas giant planet formation over its competitor, the disc instability mechanism. However, the core accretion mechanism is not refined to the point of explaining orbital parameters such as their unexpected semi-major axes and eccentricities. We propose a model, which correlates the metallicity of the host star with the original semi-major axis of its most massive planet, prior to migration, considering that the core accretion scenario governs giant gas planet formation. The model predicts that the optimum regions for planetary formation shift inward as stellar metallicity decreases, providing an explanation for the observed absence of long period planets in metal-poor stars. We compare our predictions with the available data on extrasolar planets for stars with masses similar to the mass of the Sun. A fitting procedure produces an estimate of what we define as the Zero Age Planetary Orbit (ZAPO) curve as a function of the metallicity of the star. The model also hints that the lack of planets circling metal-poor stars may be partly caused by an enhanced destruction probability during the migration process, since the planets lie initially closer to the central stars.Comment: Nature of the replacement: According to recent simulations, the temperature profile, T, is more adequately reproduced by beta = 1 rather than beta = 2. We have introduced a distance scale factor that solves the very fast drop of T for low metallicity and introduces naturally the inferior distance limit of our ZAPO. Under this modification all the fitting process was altere

Phonology and intonation

The encoding standards for phonology and intonation are designed to facilitate consistent annotation of the phonological and intonational aspects of information structure, in languages across a range ofprosodic types. The guidelines are designed with the aim that a nonspecialist in phonology can both implement and interpret the resulting annotation

Low surface brightness galaxies mass profiles as a consequence of galactic evolution

This paper presents a principal components analysis of rotation curves from a sample of low surface brightness galaxies. The physical meaning of the principal components is investigated, and related to the intrinsic properties of the galaxies. The rotation curves are re-scaled using the optical disk scale, the resulting principal component decomposition demonstrates that the whole sample is properly approximated using two components. The ratio of the second to the first component is related to the halo steepness in the central region, is correlated to the gas fraction in the galaxy, and is un-correlated to other parameters. As a consequence the gas fraction appear as a fundamental variable with respect to the galaxies rotation curves, and its correlation with the halo steepness is especially important. Since the gas fraction is related to the degree of galaxy evolution, it is very likely that the steepness of the halo at the center is a consequence of galaxy evolution. More evolved galaxies have shallower central profile and statistically less gas, most likely as a consequence of more star formation and supernovae. The differences in evolution, gas fractions and halo central steepness of the galaxies could be due to the influence of different environments.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Estimating oil concentration and flow rate with calibrated vessel-mounted acoustic echo sounders

As part of a larger program aimed at evaluating acoustic techniques for mapping the distribution of subsurface oil and gas associated with the Deepwater Horizon-Macondo oil spill, observations were made on June 24 and 25, 2010 using vessel-mounted calibrated single-beam echo sounders on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ship Thomas Jefferson. Coincident with visual observations of oil at the sea surface, the 200-kHz echo sounder showed anomalously high-volume scattering strength in the upper 200 m on the western side of the wellhead, more than 100 times higher than the surrounding waters at 1,800-m distance from the wellhead, and weakening with increasing distance out to 5,000 m. Similar high-volume scattering anomalies were not observed at 12 or 38 kHz, although observations of anomalously low-volume scattering strength were made in the deep scattering layer at these frequencies at approximately the same locations. Together with observations of ocean currents, the acoustic observations are consistent with a rising plume of small (\u3c 1-mm radius) oil droplets. Using simplistic but reasonable assumptions about the properties of the oil droplets, an estimate of the flow rate was made that is remarkably consistent with those made at the wellhead by other means. The uncertainty in this acoustically derived estimate is high due to lack of knowledge of the size distribution and rise speed of the oil droplets. If properly constrained, these types of acoustic measurements can be used to rapidly estimate the flow rate of oil reaching the surface over large temporal and spatial scales

Assessment of model based (input) impedance, pulse wave velocity, and wave reflection in the Asklepios Cohort

Objectives : Arterial stiffness and wave reflection parameters assessed from both invasive and non-invasive pressure and flow readings are used as surrogates for ventricular and vascular load. They have been reported to predict adverse cardiovascular events, but clinical assessment is laborious and may limit widespread use. This study aims to investigate measures of arterial stiffness and central hemodynamics provided by arterial tonometry alone and in combination with aortic root flows derived by echocardiography against surrogates derived by a mathematical pressure and flow model in a healthy middle-aged cohort. Methods : Measurements of carotid artery tonometry and echocardiography were performed on 2226 ASKLEPIOS study participants and parameters of systemic hemodynamics, arterial stiffness and wave reflection based on pressure and flow were measured. In a second step, the analysis was repeated but echocardiography derived flows were substituted by flows provided by a novel mathematical model. This was followed by a quantitative method comparison. Results : All investigated parameters showed a significant association between the methods. Overall agreement was acceptable for all parameters (mean differences: -0.0102 (0.033 SD) mmHg*s/ml for characteristic impedance, 0.36 (4.21 SD) mmHg for forward pressure amplitude, 2.26 (3.51 SD) mmHg for backward pressure amplitude and 0.717 (1.25 SD) m/s for pulse wave velocity). Conclusion : The results indicate that the use of model-based surrogates in a healthy middle aged cohort is feasible and deserves further attention

Carlsberg - financial analysis and equity valuation

This report is part of the valuation of Carlsberg A shares –CARLA DC on Bloomberg and CARLa.CO on Reuters. Throughout this part of the main project, already with a deep understanding of Carlsberg’s positioning in the beer industry, we shifted our focus towards Carlsberg’s financial performance. With these analyses we built the foundations for our final valuation model of Carlsberg A shares. To ensure accuracy and reliability we based our study in the company’s financials, but also industry competitors, financial studies, and our own assumptions. At the end of this part, investors should understand the main financial indicators for Carlsberg, but also final valuation for Carlsberg A shares given three different scenarios

Computational aspects of prospect theory with asset pricing applications

We develop an algorithm to compute assetallocations for Kahneman and Tversky's (Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291, 1979) prospect theory. An application to benchmark data as in Fama and French (Journal of Financial Economics, 47(2), 427-465, 1992) shows that the equity premium puzzle is resolved for parameter values similar to those found in the laboratory experiments of Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291, 1979). While previous studies like Benartzi and Thaler (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), 73-92, 1995), Barberis, Huang and Santos (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 1-53, 2001), and Grüne and Semmler (Asset prices and loss aversion, Germany, Mimeo Bielefeld University, 2005) focussed on dynamic aspects of asset pricing but only used loss aversion to explain the equity premium puzzle our paper explains the unconditional moments of asset pricing by a static two-period optimization problem. However, we incorporate asymmetric risk aversion. Our approach allows reducing the degree of loss aversion from 2.353 to 2.25, which is the value found by Tversky and Kahneman (Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323, 1992) while increasing the risk aversion from 1 to 0.894, which is a slightly higher value than the 0.88 found by Tversky and Kahneman (Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323, 1992). The equivalence of these parameter settings is robust to incorporating the size and the value portfolios of Fama and French (Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465, 1992). However, the optimal prospect theory portfolios found on this larger set of assets differ drastically from the optimal mean-variance portfoli

Comparative analysis: public and private school management systems

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and EconomicsThe Portuguese educational system has counted, for many years, with the co-existence of both public and private schools. In fact, the country’s growth and development led, in the past, to an increasing demand for free of charge public education that could only be matched through the creation of “publicly-subsidized and privately owned and managed schools”. Still, the demographic evolution of Portugal recently generated a decrease on the demand for public educational services. This situation has raised doubts about the true contribution of this type of school for the public education system. This paper aims at answering this question by isolating the impact of different property and management schemes on the performance of students, resorting to cross-section data on 9th grade students from 2010. The results corroborate the well known result on the relevance of the family socio-economic background for students’ performance, but do also sustain the existence of a significant positive impact of private ownership and management schemes on the overall performance of students. These results suggest that there might be gains associated with the expansion of such schemes within the public education system