Rapid surrogate testing of wavelet coherences

Background. The use of wavelet coherence methods enables the identification of frequency-dependent relationships between the phases of the fluctuations found in complex systems such as medical and other biological timeseries. These relationships may illuminate the causal mechanisms that relate the variables under investigation. However, computationally intensive statistical testing is required to ensure that apparent phase relationships are statistically significant, taking into account the tendency for spurious phase relationships to manifest in short stretches of data. Methods. In this study we revisit Fourier transform based methods for generating surrogate data, with which we sample the distribution of coherence values associated with the null hypothesis that no actual phase relationship between the variables exists. The properties of this distribution depend on the cross-spectrum of the data. By describing the dependency, we demonstrate how large numbers of values from this distribution can be rapidly generated without the need to generate correspondingly many wavelet transforms. Results. As a demonstration of the technique, we apply the efficient testing methodology to a complex biological system consisting of population timeseries for planktonic organisms in a food web, and certain environmental drivers. A large number of frequency dependent phase relationships are found between these variables, and our algorithm efficiently determines the probability of each arising under the null hypothesis, given the length and properties of the data. Conclusion. Proper accounting of how bias and wavelet coherence values arise from cross spectral properties provides a better understanding of the expected results under the null hypothesis. Our new technique enables enormously faster significance testing of wavelet coherence

Climate-change related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer-water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher-trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatio-temporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher-trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized

Synchrony affects Taylor’s law in theory and data

Two widely confirmed patterns in ecology are Taylor’s law (TL), which states that the variance of population density is approximately a power of mean population density, and population synchrony, the tendency of species’ population sizes in different areas to be correlated through time. TL has been applied in many areas, including fisheries management, conservation, agriculture, finance, physics, and meteorology. Synchrony of populations increases the likelihood of large-scale pest or disease outbreaks and shortages of resources. We show that changed synchrony modifies and can invalidate TL. Widespread recent changes in synchrony, possibly resulting from climate change, may broadly affect TL and its applications

The Accelerations of Stars Orbiting the Milky Way's Central Black Hole

Recent measurements, of the velocities of stars near the center of the Milky Way have provided the strongest evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole in a galaxy, but the observational uncertainties poorly constrain many of the properties of the black hole. Determining the accelerations of stars in their orbits around the center provides much more precise information about the position and mass of the black hole. Here we report measurements of the accelerations for three stars located ~0.005 pc from the central radio source Sgr A*; these accelerations are comparable to those experienced by the Earth as it orbits the Sun. These data increase the inferred minimum mass density in the central region of the Galaxy by an order of magnitude relative to previous results and localized the dark mass to within 0.05 +- 0.04 arcsec of the nominal position of Sgr A*. In addition, the orbital period of one of the observed stars could be as short as 15 years, allowing us the opportunity in the near future to observe an entire period.Comment: To appear in September 21 2000 issue of Natur

Synchrony is more than its top-down and climatic parts: interacting Moran effects on phytoplankton in British seas

Large-scale spatial synchrony is ubiquitous in ecology. We examined 56 years of data representing chlorophyll density in 26 areas in British seas monitored by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We used wavelet methods to disaggregate synchronous fluctuations by timescale and determine that drivers of synchrony include both biotic and abiotic variables. We tested these drivers for statistical significance by comparison with spatially synchronous surrogate data. We generated timescale-specific models, accounting for 61% of long-timescale (> 4yrs) synchrony in a chlorophyll density index, but only 3% of observed short-timescale (< 4yrs) synchrony. The dominant source of long-timescale chlorophyll synchrony was closely related to sea surface temperature, through a Moran effect, though likely via complex oceanographic mechanisms. The top-down action of Calanus finmarchicus predation enhances this environmental synchronising mechanism and interacts with it non-additively to produce more long-timescale synchrony than top-down and climatic drivers would produce independently. Thus we demonstrate interaction effects between Moran drivers of synchrony, a new mechanism for synchrony that may affect many ecosystems at large spatial scales

Triage for coronary artery bypass graft surgery in Canada: Do patients agree on who should come first?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The extent to which clinical and non-clinical factors impact on the waiting-list prioritization preferences of patients in the queue is unknown. Using a series of hypothetical scenarios, the objective of this study was to examine the extent to which clinical and non-clinical factors impacted on how patients would prioritize others relative to themselves in the coronary artery bypass surgical queue.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ninety-one consecutive eligible patients awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting surgery at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (median waiting-time duration prior to survey of 8 weeks) were given a self-administered survey consisting of nine scenarios in which clinical and non-clinical characteristic profiles of hypothetical patients (also awaiting coronary artery bypass surgery) were varied. For each scenario, patients were asked where in the queue such hypothetical patients should be placed relative to themselves.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The eligible response rate was 65% (59/91). Most respondents put themselves marginally ahead of a hypothetical patient with identical clinical and non-clinical characteristics as themselves. There was a strong tendency for respondents to place patients of higher clinical acuity ahead of themselves in the queue (P < 0.0001). Social independence among young individuals was a positively valued attribute (P < 0.0001), but neither age per se nor financial status, directly impacted on patients waiting-list priority preferences.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While patient perceptions generally reaffirmed a bypass surgical triage process based on principals of equity and clinical acuity, the valuation of social independence may justify further debate with regard to the inclusion of non-clinical factors in waiting-list prioritization management systems in Canada, as elsewhere.</p

A magnetically collimated jet from an evolved star

Planetary nebulae often have asymmetric shapes, which could arise due to collimated jets from evolved stars before evolution to the planetary nebula phase. The source of jet collimation in these stars is unknown. Magnetic fields are thought to collimate outflows that are observed in many other astrophysical sources, such as active galactic nuclei and proto-stars, although hitherto there are no direct observations of both the magnetic field direction and strength in any collimated jet. Theoretical models have shown that magnetic fields could also be the dominant source of collimation of jet in evolved stars. Here we report measurements of the polarization of water vapour masers that trace the precessing jet emanating from the asymptotic giant branch star W43A at 2.6 kpc from the Sun, which is undergoing rapid evolution into a planetary nebula. The masers occur in two clusters at opposing tips of the jets, ~1,000 AU from the star. We find direct evidence that the magnetic field is collimating the jet.Comment: Published in Nature 440 (March 2nd 2006). High-res figures can be found at http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~wouter/papers/w43a/w43a.htm

Applications of Laboratory Technology in the Evaluation of the Risk of Rabies Transmissions by Biting Dogs and Cats

While rabies is not a common disease in domestic animal species of the United States, potential exposures to rabies in the form of bites are very common and increasing. A nationwide study conducted among general hospitals shows that 1 percent of emergency room visits are for animal bites, of which 80-90 percent are inflicted by the dog (Callaham 1980). This figure is conservative, as the study did not include pediatric hospitals, the bite of victims that progress only to a physician\u27s office, or those that receive no medical care at all. In Missouri alone, this study would infer about 1500 dog bites per year reaching only the general hospital. The number of dog and other animal bites across the country is unknown but may safely be assumed to be staggering in magnitude

Phase I trial of vorinostat and doxorubicin in solid tumours: histone deacetylase 2 expression as a predictive marker

BackgroundHistone deacetylase inhibitors (HDACi) can sensitise cancer cells to topoisomerase inhibitors by increasing their access and binding to DNA.MethodsThis phase I trial was designed to determine the toxicity profile, tolerability, and recommended phase II dose of escalating doses of the HDACi vorinostat, with weekly doxorubicin.ResultsIn total, 32 patients were treated; vorinostat was dosed at 400, 600, 800, or 1000 mg day(-1) on days 1-3, followed by doxorubicin (20 mg m(-2)) on day 3 for 3 of 4 weeks. Maximal tolerated dose was determined to be 800 mg day(-1) of vorinostat. Dose-limiting toxicities were grade 3 nausea/vomiting (two out of six) and fatigue (one out of six) at 1000 mg day(-1). Non-dose-limiting grade 3/4 toxicities included haematological toxicity and venous thromboembolism. Antitumor activity in 24 evaluable patients included two partial responses (breast and prostate cancer). Two patients with melanoma had stable disease for &gt; or =8 months. Histone hyperacetylation changes in peripheral blood mononuclear and tumour cells were comparable. Histone hyperacetylation seemed to correlate with pre-treatment HDAC2 expression.ConclusionThese findings suggest that vorinostat can be combined with weekly doxorubicin in this schedule at a dose of 800 mg day(-1). The HDAC2 expression may be a marker predictive of HDAC inhibition. Antitumor activity of this regimen in breast cancer, prostate cancer, and melanoma seems interesting

A Randomized Trial of Intravenous Iron Supplementation and Exercise on Exercise Capacity in Iron-Deficient Nonanemic Patients With CKD

Introduction: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are often iron deficient, even when not anemic. This trial evaluated whether iron supplementation enhances exercise capacity of nonanemic patients with CKD who have iron-deficiency. Methods: Prospective, multicenter double-blind randomized controlled trial of nondialysis patients with CKD and iron-deficiency but without anemia (Hemoglobin [Hb] >110 g/l). Patients were assigned 1:1 to intravenous (IV) iron therapy, or placebo. An 8-week exercise program commenced at week 4. The primary outcome was the mean between-group difference in 6-minute walk test (6MWT) at 4 weeks. Secondary outcomes included 6MWT at 12 weeks, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum ferritin (SF), Hb, renal function, muscle strength, functional capacity, quality of life, and adverse events at baseline, 4 weeks, and at 12 weeks. Mean between-group differences were analyzed using analysis of covariance models. Results: Among 75 randomized patients, mean (SD) age for iron therapy (n = 37) versus placebo (n = 38) was 54 (16) versus 61 (12) years; estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (34 [12] vs. 35 [11] ml/min per 1.73 m2], TSAT (23 [12] vs. 21 [6])%; SF (57 [64] vs. 62 [33]) μg/l; Hb (122.4 [9.2] vs. 127 [13.2] g/l); 6MWT (384 [95] vs. 469 [142] meters) at baseline, respectively. No significant mean between-group difference was observed in 6MWT distance at 4 weeks. There were significant increases in SF and TSAT at 4 and 12 weeks (P < 0.02), and Hb at 12 weeks (P = 0.009). There were no between-group differences in other secondary outcomes and no adverse events attributable to iron therapy. Conclusion: This trial did not demonstrate beneficial effects of IV iron therapy on exercise capacity at 4 weeks. A larger study is needed to confirm if IV iron is beneficial in nondialysis patients with CKD who are iron-deficient