Disease Progression Modelling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

RATIONALE: The decades-long progression of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) renders identifying different trajectories of disease progression challenging. OBJECTIVES: To identify subtypes of COPD patients with distinct longitudinal progression patterns using a novel machine-learning tool called "Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)", and to evaluate the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification in COPD. METHODS: We applied SuStaIn to cross-sectional CT imaging markers in 3698 GOLD1-4 patients and 3479 controls from the COPDGene study to identify COPD patient subtypes. We confirmed the identified subtypes and progression patterns using ECLIPSE data. We assessed the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification by comparing SuStaIn subtypes and stages at baseline with longitudinal follow-up data. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified two trajectories of disease progression in COPD: a "Tissue→Airway" subtype (n=2354, 70.4%) in which small airway dysfunction and emphysema precede large-airway wall abnormalities, and an "Airway→Tissue" subtype (n=988, 29.6%) in which large-airway wall abnormalities precede emphysema and small airway dysfunction. Subtypes were reproducible in ECLIPSE. Baseline stage in both subtypes correlated with future FEV1/FVC decline (r=-0.16 (p<0.001) in the Tissue→Airway group; r=-0.14 (p=0.011) in the Airway→Tissue group). SuStaIn placed 30% of smokers with normal lung function at non-baseline stages suggesting imaging changes consistent with early COPD. Individuals with early changes were 2.5 times more likely to meet COPD diagnostic criteria at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate two distinct patterns of disease progression in COPD using SuStaIn, likely representing different endotypes. One-third of healthy smokers have detectable imaging changes, suggesting a new biomarker of 'early COPD'

Basal topographic controls on rapid retreat of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland

This is the final version of the article. Available from CUP via the DOI in this record.Discharge from marine-terminating outlet glaciers accounts for up to half the recent mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet, yet the causal factors are not fully understood. Here we assess the factors controlling the behaviour of Humboldt Glacier (HG), allowing us to evaluate the influence of basal topography on outlet glacier response to external forcing since part of HG’s terminus occupies a large overdeepening. HG’s retreat accelerated dramatically after 1999, coinciding with summer atmospheric warming of up to 0.19°C a–1 and sea-ice decline. Retreat was an order of magnitude greater in the northern section of the terminus, underlain by a major basal trough, than in the southern section, where the bedrock is comparatively shallow. Velocity change following retreat was spatially non-uniform, potentially due to a pinning point near HG’s northern lateral margin. Consistent with observations, numerical modelling demonstrates an order-of-magnitude greater sensitivity to sea-ice buttressing and crevasse depth (used as a proxy for atmospheric warming) in the northern section. The trough extends up to 72 km inland, so it is likely to facilitate sustained retreat and ice loss from HG during the 21st century.Funding for this work was provided by a Durham Doctoral Studentship to J.R.C. Radio-echo sounding data were acquired and processed through UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/H020667 to J.A.D. and P.C. and a G. Unger Vetlesen grant to the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG). GrOGG laser altimetry was supported by NNXAD33G to D.D.B. This paper is UTIG contribution No. 2733. S.S.R.J. was supported by UK NERC fellowship NE/J018333/1

Preliminary Limits on the WIMP-Nucleon Cross Section from the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS)

We are conducting an experiment to search for WIMPs, or weakly-interacting massive particles, in the galactic halo using terrestrial detectors. This generic class of hypothetical particles, whose properties are similar to those predicted by extensions of the standard model of particle physics, could comprise the cold component of non-baryonic dark matter. We describe our experiment, which is based on cooled germanium and silicon detectors in a shielded low-background cryostat. The detectors achieve a high degree of background rejection through the simultaneous measurement of the energy in phonons and ionization. Using exposures on the order of one kilogram-day from initial runs of our experiment, we have achieved (preliminary) upper limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross section that are comparable to much longer runs of other experiments.Comment: 5 LaTex pages, 5 eps figs, epsf.sty, espcrc2dsa2.sty. Proceedings of TAUP97, Gran Sasso, Italy, 7-11 Sep 1997, Nucl. Phys. Suppl., A. Bottino, A. di Credico and P. Monacelli (eds.). See also http://cfpa.berkeley.ed

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Historical influence on the practice of chiropractic radiology: Part I - a survey of Diplomates of the American Chiropractic College of Radiology

Background It is known that not all chiropractors follow mainstream guidelines on the use of diagnostic ionising radiation. Various reasons have been discussed in the literature, including using radiography to screen for congenital anomalies, to perform postural analysis, to search for contraindications to spinal manipulation, and to document chiropractic subluxations, i.e., tiny anatomical displacements of vertebrae thought to affect nerves and health. The visualisation of subluxations was the reason chiropractic first adopted the x-ray in 1910. There has never been a study of the influence of this historical paradigm of radiography on the practices of chiropractic radiologists (DACBRs or Diplomates of the American Chiropractic College of Radiology). Methods A survey was administered with a modified Dillman method using SurveyMonkey and supplemented by hard copies distributed at a professional conference. The target population was all active DACBRs. There were 34 items, which consisted of multiple choice and open-ended interrogatives on all three areas in which chiropractic radiologists work: education, clinical practice, and radiology practice. Results The response rate was 38% (73 of 190 DACBRs). Respondents reported that the historical paradigm of radiography was found in all areas of practice, but not as a major aspect. The majority of respondents did not condone that historical paradigm, but many tolerated it, particularly from referring chiropractors. Radiographic subluxation analysis was reportedly perpetuated by private clinical practitioners as well as technique instructors and supervising clinicians in the teaching institutions. Conclusions Within the chiropractic profession, there is a continuing belief in radiographically visible subluxations as a cause of suboptimal health. This situation is sustained in part due to the reticence of other chiropractors to report these practices to licensing and registration boards. Investigation into other structures supporting a vitalistic belief system over science in chiropractic is recommended. In addition, it may be useful to explore remunerative systems that move beyond the inherently conflicted fee-for-service model

The partial inhibition of hypothalamic IRX3 exacerbates obesity

The Iroquois homeobox 3 (Irx3) gene has been identified as a functional long-range target of obesity-associated variants within the fat mass and obesity-associated protein (FTO) gene. It is highly expressed in the hypothalamus, and both whole-body knockout and hypothalamic restricted abrogation of its expression results in a lean phenotype, which is mostly explained by the resulting increased energy expenditure in the brown adipose tissue. Because of its potential implication in the pathogenesis of obesity, we evaluated the hypothalamic cell distribution of Irx3 and the outcomes of inhibiting its expression in a rodent model of diet-induced obesity. Methods: Bioinformatics tools were used to evaluate the correlations between hypothalamic Irx3 and neurotransmitters, markers of thermogenesis and obesity related phenotypes. Droplet-sequencing analysis in >20,000 hypothalamic cells was used to explore the types of hypothalamic cells expressing Irx3. Lentivirus was used to inhibit hypothalamic Irx3 and the resulting phenotype was studied. Findings: IRX3 is expressed predominantly in POMC neurons. Its expression is inhibited during prolonged fasting, as well as when mice are fed a high-fat diet. The partial inhibition of hypothalamic Irx3 using a lentivirus resulted in increased diet-induced body mass gain and adiposity due to increased caloric intake and reduced energy expenditure. Interpretation: Contrary to the results obtained when lean mice are submitted to complete inhibition of Irx3, partial inhibition of hypothalamic Irx3 in obese mice causes an exacerbation of the obese phenotype. These data suggest that at least some of the Irx3 functions in the hypothalamus are regulated according to a hormetic pattern, and modulation of its expression can be a novel approach to modifying the body's energy-handling regulation.39448460FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESP2013/07607-8; 2017/02983-

Fine sediment reduces vertical migrations of Gammarus pulex (Crustacea: Amphipoda) in response to surface water loss

Surface and subsurface sediments in river ecosystems are recognized as refuges that may promote invertebrate survival during disturbances such as floods and streambed drying. Refuge use is spatiotemporally variable, with environmental factors including substrate composition, in particular the proportion of fine sediment (FS), affecting the ability of organisms to move through interstitial spaces. We conducted a laboratory experiment to examine the effects of FS on the movement of Gammarus pulex Linnaeus (Crustacea: Amphipoda) into subsurface sediments in response to surface water loss. We hypothesized that increasing volumes of FS would impede and ultimately prevent individuals from migrating into the sediments. To test this hypothesis, the proportion of FS (1–2 mm diameter) present within an open gravel matrix (4–16 mm diameter) was varied from 10 to 20% by volume in 2.5% increments. Under control conditions (0% FS), 93% of individuals moved into subsurface sediments as the water level was reduced. The proportion of individuals moving into the subsurface decreased to 74% at 10% FS, and at 20% FS no individuals entered the sediments, supporting our hypothesis. These results demonstrate the importance of reducing FS inputs into river ecosystems and restoring FS-clogged riverbeds, to promote refuge use during increasingly common instream disturbances

Protocol for the Smoking, Nicotine and Pregnancy (SNAP) trial: double-blind, placebo-randomised, controlled trial of nicotine replacement therapy in pregnancy

Background: Smoking in pregnancy remains a public health challenge. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is effective for smoking cessation in non-pregnant people, but because women metabolise nicotine and cotinine much faster in pregnancy, it is unclear whether this will be effective for smoking cessation in pregnancy. The NHS Health Technology Assessment Programme (HTA)-funded smoking, nicotine and pregnancy ( SNAP) trial will investigate whether or not nicotine replacement therapy ( NRT) is effective, cost-effective and safe when used for smoking cessation by pregnant women. Methods/Design: Over two years, in 5 trial centres, 1050 pregnant women who are between 12 and 24 weeks pregnant will be randomised as they attend hospital for ante-natal ultrasound scans. Women will receive either nicotine or placebo transdermal patches with behavioural support. The primary outcome measure is biochemically-validated, self-reported, prolonged and total abstinence from smoking between a quit date ( defined before randomisation and set within two weeks of this) and delivery. At six months after childbirth self-reported maternal smoking status will be ascertained and two years after childbirth, self-reported maternal smoking status and the behaviour, cognitive development and respiratory symptoms of children born in the trial will be compared in both groups. Discussion: This trial is designed to ascertain whether or not standard doses of NRT ( as transdermal patches) are effective and safe when used for smoking cessation during pregnancy