Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR) of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one) with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models.</p

Routine Laboratory Results and Thirty Day and One-Year Mortality Risk Following Hospitalization with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

INTRODUCTION: Several blood tests are performed uniformly in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure and are predictive of the outcomes: complete blood count, electrolytes, renal function, glucose, albumin and uric acid. We sought to evaluate the relationship between routine admission laboratory tests results, patient characteristics and 30-day and one-year mortality of patients admitted for decompensated heart failure and to construct a simple mortality prediction tool. METHODS: A retrospective population based study. Data from seven tertiary hospitals on all admissions with a principal diagnosis of heart failure during the years 2002-2005 throughout Israel were captured. RESULTS: 8,246 patients were included in the study cohort. Thirty day mortality rate was 8.5% (701 patients) and one-year mortality rate was 28.7% (2,365 patients). Addition of five routine laboratory tests results (albumin, sodium, blood urea, uric acid and WBC) to a set of clinical and demographic characteristics improved c-statistics from 0.76 to 0.81 for 30-days and from 0.72 to 0.76 for one-year mortality prediction (both p-values <0.0001). Three dichotomized abnormal laboratory results with highest odds ratio for one-year mortality (hypoalbuminaemia, hyponatremia and elevated blood urea) were used to construct a simple prediction score, capable of discriminating from 1.1% to 21.4% in 30-day and from 11.6% to 55.6% in one-year mortality rates between patients with a score of 0 (1,477 patients) vs. score of 3 (544 patients). DISCUSSION: A small set of abnormal routine laboratory results upon admission can risk-stratify and independently predict 30-day and one-year mortality in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure

Evidence for a Novel Marine Harmful Algal Bloom: Cyanotoxin (Microcystin) Transfer from Land to Sea Otters

“Super-blooms” of cyanobacteria that produce potent and environmentally persistent biotoxins (microcystins) are an emerging global health issue in freshwater habitats. Monitoring of the marine environment for secondary impacts has been minimal, although microcystin-contaminated freshwater is known to be entering marine ecosystems. Here we confirm deaths of marine mammals from microcystin intoxication and provide evidence implicating land-sea flow with trophic transfer through marine invertebrates as the most likely route of exposure. This hypothesis was evaluated through environmental detection of potential freshwater and marine microcystin sources, sea otter necropsy with biochemical analysis of tissues and evaluation of bioaccumulation of freshwater microcystins by marine invertebrates. Ocean discharge of freshwater microcystins was confirmed for three nutrient-impaired rivers flowing into the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, and microcystin concentrations up to 2,900 ppm (2.9 million ppb) were detected in a freshwater lake and downstream tributaries to within 1 km of the ocean. Deaths of 21 southern sea otters, a federally listed threatened species, were linked to microcystin intoxication. Finally, farmed and free-living marine clams, mussels and oysters of species that are often consumed by sea otters and humans exhibited significant biomagnification (to 107 times ambient water levels) and slow depuration of freshwater cyanotoxins, suggesting a potentially serious environmental and public health threat that extends from the lowest trophic levels of nutrient-impaired freshwater habitat to apex marine predators. Microcystin-poisoned sea otters were commonly recovered near river mouths and harbors and contaminated marine bivalves were implicated as the most likely source of this potent hepatotoxin for wild otters. This is the first report of deaths of marine mammals due to cyanotoxins and confirms the existence of a novel class of marine “harmful algal bloom” in the Pacific coastal environment; that of hepatotoxic shellfish poisoning (HSP), suggesting that animals and humans are at risk from microcystin poisoning when consuming shellfish harvested at the land-sea interface

Rationale and methods of the multicenter randomised trial of a heart failure management programme among geriatric patients (HF-Geriatrics)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Disease management programmes (DMPs) have been shown to reduce hospital readmissions and mortality in adults with heart failure (HF), but their effectiveness in elderly patients or in those with major comorbidity is unknown. The Multicenter Randomised Trial of a Heart Failure Management Programme among Geriatric Patients (HF-Geriatrics) assesses the effectiveness of a DMP in elderly patients with HF and major comorbidity.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Clinical trial in 700 patients aged ≥ 75 years admitted with a primary diagnosis of HF in the acute care unit of eight geriatric services in Spain. Each patient should meet at least one of the following comorbidty criteria: Charlson index ≥ 3, dependence in ≥ 2 activities of daily living, treatment with ≥ 5 drugs, active treatment for ≥ 3 diseases, recent emergency hospitalization, severe visual or hearing loss, cognitive impairment, Parkinson's disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), anaemia, or constitutional syndrome. Half of the patients will be randomly assigned to a 1-year DMP led by a case manager and the other half to usual care. The DMP consists of an educational programme for patients and caregivers on the management of HF, COPD (knowledge of the disease, smoking cessation, immunizations, use of inhaled medication, recognition of exacerbations), diabetes (knowledge of the disease, symptoms of hyperglycaemia and hypoglycaemia, self-adjustment of insulin, foot care) and depression (knowledge of the disease, diagnosis and treatment). It also includes close monitoring of the symptoms of decompensation and optimisation of treatment compliance. The main outcome variables are quality of life, hospital readmissions, and overall mortality during a 12-month follow-up.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The physiological changes, lower life expectancy, comorbidity and low health literacy associated with aging may influence the effectiveness of DMPs in HF. The HF-Geriatrics study will provide direct evidence on the effect of a DMP in elderly patients with HF and high comorbidty, and will reduce the need to extrapolate the results of clinical trials in adults to elderly patients.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>(ClinicalTrials.gov number, <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01076465">NCT01076465</a>).</p

Bacterial Biodiversity-Ecosystem Functioning Relations Are Modified by Environmental Complexity

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Unintended Consequences of Conservation Actions: Managing Disease in Complex Ecosystems

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognised to be a major threat to biodiversity. Disease management tools such as control of animal movements and vaccination can be used to mitigate the impact and spread of diseases in targeted species. They can reduce the risk of epidemics and in turn the risks of population decline and extinction. However, all species are embedded in communities and interactions between species can be complex, hence increasing the chance of survival of one species can have repercussions on the whole community structure. In this study, we use an example from the Serengeti ecosystem in Tanzania to explore how a vaccination campaign against Canine Distemper Virus (CDV) targeted at conserving the African lion (Panthera leo), could affect the viability of a coexisting threatened species, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). Assuming that CDV plays a role in lion regulation, our results suggest that a vaccination programme, if successful, risks destabilising the simple two-species system considered, as simulations show that vaccination interventions could almost double the probability of extinction of an isolated cheetah population over the next 60 years. This work uses a simple example to illustrate how predictive modelling can be a useful tool in examining the consequence of vaccination interventions on non-target species. It also highlights the importance of carefully considering linkages between human-intervention, species viability and community structure when planning species-based conservation actions

Testosterone Deficiency Accelerates Neuronal and Vascular Aging of SAMP8 Mice: Protective Role of eNOS and SIRT1

Oxidative stress and atherosclerosis-related vascular disorders are risk factors for cognitive decline with aging. In a small clinical study in men, testosterone improved cognitive function; however, it is unknown how testosterone ameliorates the pathogenesis of cognitive decline with aging. Here, we investigated whether the cognitive decline in senescence-accelerated mouse prone 8 (SAMP8), which exhibits cognitive impairment and hypogonadism, could be reversed by testosterone, and the mechanism by which testosterone inhibits cognitive decline. We found that treatment with testosterone ameliorated cognitive function and inhibited senescence of hippocampal vascular endothelial cells of SAMP8. Notably, SAMP8 showed enhancement of oxidative stress in the hippocampus. We observed that an NAD+-dependent deacetylase, SIRT1, played an important role in the protective effect of testosterone against oxidative stress-induced endothelial senescence. Testosterone increased eNOS activity and subsequently induced SIRT1 expression. SIRT1 inhibited endothelial senescence via up-regulation of eNOS. Finally, we showed, using co-culture system, that senescent endothelial cells promoted neuronal senescence through humoral factors. Our results suggest a critical role of testosterone and SIRT1 in the prevention of vascular and neuronal aging