73 research outputs found

    Evolvement of Uniformity and Volatility in the Stressed Global Financial Village

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    Background: In the current era of strong worldwide market couplings the global financial village became highly prone to systemic collapses, events that can rapidly sweep throughout the entire village. Methodology/Principal Findings: We present a new methodology to assess and quantify inter-market relations. The approach is based on the correlations between the market index, the index volatility, the market Index Cohesive Force and the meta-correlations (correlations between the intra-correlations.) We investigated the relations between six important world markets—U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan, China and India—from January 2000 until December 2010. We found that while the developed ‘‘western’’ markets (U.S., U.K., Germany) are highly correlated, the interdependencies between these markets and the developing ‘‘eastern’’ markets (India and China) are volatile and with noticeable maxima at times of global world events. The Japanese market switches ‘‘identity’’—it switches between periods of high meta-correlations with the ‘‘western’’ markets and periods when it behaves more similarly to the ‘‘eastern’’ markets. Conclusions/Significance: The methodological framework presented here provides a way to quantify the evolvement of interdependencies in the global market, evaluate a world financial network and quantify changes in the world inter market relations. Such changes can be used as precursors to the agitation of the global financial village. Hence, the new approach can help to develop a sensitive ‘‘financial seismograph’’ to detect early signs of global financial crises so they can be treated before they develop into worldwide event

    Index Cohesive Force Analysis Reveals That the US Market Became Prone to Systemic Collapses Since 2002

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    BACKGROUND: The 2007-2009 financial crisis, and its fallout, has strongly emphasized the need to define new ways and measures to study and assess the stock market dynamics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The S&P500 dynamics during 4/1999-4/2010 is investigated in terms of the index cohesive force (ICF--the balance between the stock correlations and the partial correlations after subtraction of the index contribution), and the Eigenvalue entropy of the stock correlation matrices. We found a rapid market transition at the end of 2001 from a flexible state of low ICF into a stiff (nonflexible) state of high ICF that is prone to market systemic collapses. The stiff state is also marked by strong effect of the market index on the stock-stock correlations as well as bursts of high stock correlations reminiscence of epileptic brain activity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The market dynamical states, stability and transition between economic states was studies using new quantitative measures. Doing so shed new light on the origin and nature of the current crisis. The new approach is likely to be applicable to other classes of complex systems from gene networks to the human brain

    New Perspectives on the Aging Lexicon

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    The field of cognitive aging has seen considerable advances in describing the linguistic and semantic changes that happen during the adult life span to uncover the structure of the mental lexicon (i.e., the mental repository of lexical and conceptual representations). Nevertheless, there is still debate concerning the sources of these changes, including the role of environmental exposure and several cognitive mechanisms associated with learning, representation, and retrieval of information. We review the current status of research in this field and outline a framework that promises to assess the contribution of both ecological and psychological aspects to the aging lexicon

    Statistical Inference for Valued-Edge Networks: Generalized Exponential Random Graph Models

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    Across the sciences, the statistical analysis of networks is central to the production of knowledge on relational phenomena. Because of their ability to model the structural generation of networks, exponential random graph models are a ubiquitous means of analysis. However, they are limited by an inability to model networks with valued edges. We solve this problem by introducing a class of generalized exponential random graph models capable of modeling networks whose edges are valued, thus greatly expanding the scope of networks applied researchers can subject to statistical analysis

    Ferromagnetic semiconductors

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    The current status and prospects of research on ferromagnetism in semiconductors are reviewed. The question of the origin of ferromagnetism in europium chalcogenides, chromium spinels and, particularly, in diluted magnetic semiconductors is addressed. The nature of electronic states derived from 3d of magnetic impurities is discussed in some details. Results of a quantitative comparison between experimental and theoretical results, notably for Mn-based III-V and II-VI compounds, are presented. This comparison demonstrates that the current theory of the exchange interactions mediated by holes in the valence band describes correctly the values of Curie temperatures T_C magnetic anisotropy, domain structure, and magnetic circular dichroism. On this basis, chemical trends are examined and show to lead to the prediction of semiconductor systems with T_C that may exceed room temperature, an expectation that are being confirmed by recent findings. Results for materials containing magnetic ions other than Mn are also presented emphasizing that the double exchange involving hoping through d states may operate in those systems.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures; special issue of Semicon. Sci. Technol. on semiconductor spintronic

    Challenges in network science: Applications to infrastructures, climate, social systems and economics

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    Inference of financial networks using the normalised mutual information rate

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    In this paper we study data from financial markets using an information theory tool that we call the normalised Mutual Information Rate and show how to use it to infer the underlying network structure of interrelations in foreign currency exchange rates and stock indices of 14 countries world-wide and the European Union. We first present the mathematical method and discuss about its computational aspects, and then apply it to artificial data from chaotic dynamics and to correlated random variates. Next, we apply the method to infer the network structure of the financial data. Particularly, we study and reveal the interrelations among the various foreign currency exchange rates and stock indices in two separate networks for which we also perform an analysis to identify their structural properties. Our results show that both are small-world networks sharing similar properties but also having distinct differences in terms of assortativity. Finally, the consistent relationships depicted among the 15 economies are further supported by a discussion from the economics view point

    Population movement under extreme events

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