Models and metaphors: complexity theory and through-life management in the built environment

Complexity thinking may have both modelling and metaphorical applications in the through-life management of the built environment. These two distinct approaches are examined and compared. In the first instance, some of the sources of complexity in the design, construction and maintenance of the built environment are identified. The metaphorical use of complexity in management thinking and its application in the built environment are briefly examined. This is followed by an exploration of modelling techniques relevant to built environment concerns. Non-linear and complex mathematical techniques such as fuzzy logic, cellular automata and attractors, may be applicable to their analysis. Existing software tools are identified and examples of successful built environment applications of complexity modelling are given. Some issues that arise include the definition of phenomena in a mathematically usable way, the functionality of available software and the possibility of going beyond representational modelling. Further questions arising from the application of complexity thinking are discussed, including the possibilities for confusion that arise from the use of metaphor. The metaphor of a 'commentary machine' is suggested as a possible way forward and it is suggested that an appropriate linguistic analysis can in certain situations reduce perceived complexity

Data quality and 30-day survival for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in the UK out-of-hospital cardiac arrest registry: a data linkage study

Objectives The Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Outcomes (OHCAO) project aims to understand the epidemiology and outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) across the UK. This data linkage study is a subproject of OHCAO. The aim was to establish the feasibility of linking OHCAO data to National Health Service (NHS) patient demographic data and Office for National Statistics (ONS) date of death data held on the NHS Personal Demographics Service (PDS) database to improve OHCAO demographic data quality and enable analysis of 30-day survival from OHCA. Design and setting Data were collected from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2014 as part of a prospective, observational study of OHCA attended by 10 English NHS Ambulance Services. 28 729 OHCA cases had resuscitation attempted by Emergency Medical Services and were included in the study. Data linkage was carried out using a data linkage service provided by NHS Digital, a national provider of health-related data. To assess data linkage feasibility a random sample of 3120 cases was selected. The sample was securely transferred to NHS Digital to be matched using OHCAO patient demographic data to return previously missing demographic data and provide ONS date of death data. Results A total of 2513 (80.5%) OHCAO cases were matched to patients in the NHS PDS database. Using the linkage process, missing demographic data were retrieved for 1636 (72.7%) out of 2249 OHCAO cases that had previously incomplete demographic data. Returned ONS date of death data allowed analysis of 30-day survival status. The results showed a 30-day survival rate of 9.3%, reducing unknown survival status from 46.1% to 8.5%. Conclusions In this sample, data linkage between the OHCAO registry and NHS PDS database was shown to be feasible, improving demographic data quality and allowing analysis of 30-day survival status

Querying the Queer: A Study of the Queer Identity in the Sri Lankan English Novel

Employing the insights gleaned from queer theory, this paper engages with the literary representation of tabooed sexualities by scrutinizing the depiction of the queer character in the postIndependence Sri Lankan novel. The methodology of the study is based on a textual examination. The primary texts under scrutiny are three texts by the two pioneers of the Sri Lankan English novel, Punyakanthi Wijenaike (Giraya and Amulet) and James Goonewardena (An Asian Gambit); in which one finds the earliest appearance of the queer character in Sri Lankan English fiction. In a nutshell, the paper examines how these authors negotiate with what the feminist critics term, “the perceptual screen provided by our patriarchal cultural conditioning” by attempting to see if the works of these authors hold any subversive potential. This end is achieved by examining whether the depiction of the queer character in the novels of these authors is employed as a means of tracing a redefinition or a reaffirmation of the patriarchal social institutions such as love and family. In the exploration it becomes evident that especially in Wijenaike’s work there is a critical recognition the discriminatory aspects of certain patriarchal institutions. Nevertheless, the study unearths that in spite of the authors’ ostensibly radical move of engaging with tabooed sexualities in the Sri Lankan society in their novels, their depiction of the queer character is predominantly governed by homophobic, heterosexist undercurrents. It is hoped that this paper will throw new light on the preoccupations of the Sri Lankan English writers, enable new readings of old texts, and illuminate a previously unexplored area of experience in Sri Lankan English fiction.Key words: Sri Lankan novel, queer, homosexuality, identity, gender studie

STM Observation of the Si(111) - (7×7) Reconstructed Surface Modified by Excess Phosphorus Doping

The electronic properties of semiconductor surfaces change readily upon changing the carrier densities by controlling the dopant concentration. Additionally, excess dopant atoms can exert electric field which would affect the molecular adsorption process and could be used to manipulate the dynamic movement of confined molecules. A mechanism can be developed to control the molecular dynamic movement on modified semiconductor surface by dopants thus changing the effect of the electric field on the active molecules.  In this study, the Si(111) surface was doped with phosphorus excessively using thermal diffusion process. The surface was then reconstructed to the 7 × 7 configuration via heating under UHV conditions and then studied through STM and STS techniques. The protrusions due to surface and subsurface P atoms appear brighter due to the lone electron pair. The 7 × 7 reconstruction would be destabilized after a critical P substitution of Si-adatom concentration due to high surface strain result in P-terminated (6√3 × 6√3)R30º reconstruction

Patterns of progression, treatment of progressive disease and post-progression survival in the New EPOC study.

BACKGROUND: The addition of cetuximab (CTX) to perioperative chemotherapy (CT) for operable colorectal liver metastases resulted in a shorter progression-free survival. Details of disease progression are described to further inform the primary study outcome. METHODS: A total of 257 KRAS wild-type patients were randomised to CT alone or CT with CTX. Data regarding sites and treatment of progressive disease were obtained for the 109 (CT n=48, CT and CTX n=61) patients with progressive disease at the cut-off date for analysis of November 2012. RESULTS: The liver was the most frequent site of progression (CT 67% (32/48); CT and CTX 66% (40/61)). A higher proportion of patients in the CT and group had multiple sites of progressive disease (CT 8%, 4/48; CT and CTX 23%, 14/61 P=0.04). Further treatment for progressive disease is known for 84 patients of whom 69 received further CT, most frequently irinotecan based. Twenty-two patients, 11 in each arm, received CTX as a further line agent. CONCLUSIONS: Both the distribution of progressive disease and further treatment are as expected for such a cohort. The pattern of disease progression seen is consistent with failure of systemic micrometastatic disease control rather than failure of local disease control following liver surgery

Cascade oxime formation, cyclization to a nitrone, and intermolecular dipolar cycloaddition.

Simple haloaldehydes, including enolisable aldehydes, were found to be suitable for the formation of cyclic products by cascade (domino) condensation, cyclisation, dipolar cycloaddition chemistry. This multi-component reaction approach to heterocyclic compounds was explored by using hydroxylamine, a selection of aldehydes, and a selection of activated dipolarophiles. Initial condensation gives intermediate oximes that undergo cyclisation with displacement of halide to give intermediate nitrones; these nitrones undergo in situ intermolecular dipolar cycloaddition reactions to give isoxazolidines. The cycloadducts from using dimethyl fumarate were treated with zinc/acetic acid to give lactam products and this provides an easy way to prepare pyrrolizinones, indolizinones, and pyrrolo[2,1-a]isoquinolinones. The chemistry is illustrated with a very short synthesis of the pyrrolizidine alkaloid macronecine and a formal synthesis of petasinecine

Epidemiology and outcomes from out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in England

Introduction This study reports the epidemiology and outcomes from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in England during 2014. Methods Prospective observational study from the national OHCA registry. The incidence, demographic and outcomes of patients who were treated for an OHCA between 1st January 2014 and 31st December 2014 in 10 English ambulance service (EMS) regions, serving a population of almost 54 million, are reported in accordance with Utstein recommendations. Results 28,729 OHCA cases of EMS treated cardiac arrests were reported (53 per 100,000 of resident population). The mean age was 68.6 (SD = 19.6) years and 41.3% were female. Most (83%) occurred in a place of residence, 52.7% were witnessed by either the EMS or a bystander. In non-EMS witnessed cases, 55.2% received bystander CPR whilst public access defibrillation was used rarely (2.3%). Cardiac aetiology was the leading cause of cardiac arrest (60.9%). The initial rhythm was asystole in 42.4% of all cases and was shockable (VF or pVT) in 20.6%. Return of spontaneous circulation at hospital transfer was evident in 25.8% (n = 6302) and survival to hospital discharge was 7.9%. Conclusion Cardiac arrest is an important cause of death in England. With less than one in ten patients surviving, there is scope to improve outcomes. Survival rates were highest amongst those who received bystander CPR and public access defibrillation

A bird’s eye view: using circuit theory to study urban landscape connectivity for birds

Context Connectivity is fundamental to understanding how landscape form influences ecological function. However, uncertainties persist due to the difficulty and expense of gathering empirical data to drive or to validate connectivity models, especially in urban areas, where relationships are multifaceted and the habitat matrix cannot be considered to be binary. Objectives This research used circuit theory to model urban bird flows (i.e. ‘current’), and compared results to observed abundance. The aims were to explore the ability of this approach to predict wildlife flows and to test relationships between modelled connectivity and variation in abundance. Methods Circuitscape was used to model functional connectivity in Bedford, Luton/Dunstable, and Milton Keynes, UK, for great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), drawing parameters from published studies of woodland bird flows in urban environments. Model performance was then tested against observed abundance data. Results Modelled current showed a weak yet positive agreement with combined abundance for P. major and C. caeruleus. Weaker correlations were found for other woodland species, suggesting the approach may be expandable if re-parameterised. Conclusions Trees provide suitable habitat for urban woodland bird species, but their location in large, contiguous patches and corridors along barriers also facilitates connectivity networks throughout the urban matrix. Urban connectivity studies are well-served by the advantages of circuit theory approaches, and benefit from the empirical study of wildlife flows in these landscapes to parameterise this type of modelling more explicitly. Such results can prove informative and beneficial in designing urban green space and new developments