Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance

Ponencia presentada en: 24th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition celebrada del 21-25 de septiembre de 2009 en Hamburgo.Power generation from photovoltaic systems is highly variable due to its dependence on meteorological conditions. An efficient use of this fluctuating energy source requires reliable forecast information for management and operation strategies. Due to the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. As a consequence, in the last years various research organisations and companies have developed different methods to forecast irradiance as a basis for respective power forecasts. For the end-users of these forecasts it is important that standardized methodology is used when presenting results on the accuracy of a prediction model in order to get a clear idea on the advantages of a specific approach. In this paper we introduce a benchmarking procedure to asses the accuracy of irradiance forecasts and compare different approaches of forecasting. The evaluation shows a strong dependence of the forecast accuracy on the climatic conditions. For Central European stations the relative rmse ranges from 40 % to 60 %, for Spanish stations relative rmse values are in the range of 20 % to 35 %

Caveolin-1 Modulates Mechanotransduction Responses to Substrate Stiffness through Actin-Dependent Control of YAP

The transcriptional regulator YAP orchestrates many cellular functions, including tissue homeostasis, organ growth control, and tumorigenesis. Mechanical stimuli are a key input to YAP activity, but the mechanisms controlling this regulation remain largely uncharacterized. We show that CAV1 positively modulates the YAP mechanoresponse to substrate stiffness through actin-cytoskeleton-dependent and Hippo-kinase-independent mechanisms. RHO activity is necessary, but not sufficient, for CAV1-dependent mechanoregulation of YAP activity. Systematic quantitative interactomic studies and image-based small interfering RNA (siRNA) screens provide evidence that this actin-dependent regulation is determined by YAP interaction with the 14-3-3 protein YWHAH. Constitutive YAP activation rescued phenotypes associated with CAV1 loss, including defective extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling. CAV1-mediated control of YAP activity was validated in vivo in a model of pancreatitis-driven acinar-to-ductal metaplasia. We propose that this CAV1-YAP mechanotransduction system controls a significant share of cell programs linked to these two pivotal regulators, with potentially broad physiological and pathological implications. Moreno-Vicente et al. report that CAV1, a key component of PM mechanosensing caveolae, mediates adaptation to ECM rigidity by modulating YAP activity through the control of actin dynamics and phosphorylation-dependent interaction of YAP with the 14-3-3-domain protein YWHAH. Cav1-dependent YAP regulation drives two pathophysiological processes: ECM remodeling and pancreatic ADM. © 2018 The Author

Evaluation of two MM5-PBL parameterizations for solar radiation and temperature estimation in the South-Eastern area of the Iberian Peninsula

We study the relative performance of two different MM5-PBL parameterizations (Blackadar and MRF) simulating hourly values of solar irradiance and temperature in the south-eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation was carried out throughout the different seasons of the year 2005 and for three different sky conditions: clear-sky, broken-clouds and overcast conditions. Two integrations, one per PBL parameterization, were carried out for every sky condition and season of the year and results were compared with observational data. Overall, the MM5 model, both using the Blackadar or MRF PBL parameterization, revealed to be a valid tool to estimate hourly values of solar radiation and temperature over the study area. The influence of the PBL parameterization on the model estimates was found to be more important for the solar radiation than for the temperature and highly dependent on the season and sky conditions. Particularly, a detailed analysis revealed that, during broken-clouds conditions, the ability of the model to reproduce hourly changes in the solar radiation strongly depends upon the selected PBL parameterization. Additionally, it was found that solar radiation RMSE values are about one order of magnitude higher during broken-clouds and overcast conditions compared to clear-sky conditions. For the temperature, the two PBL parameterizations provide very similar estimates. Only under overcast conditions and during the autumn, the MRF provides significantly better estimates

Mechanical control of nuclear import by Importin-7 is regulated by its dominant cargo YAP

Mechanical forces regulate multiple essential pathways in the cell. The nuclear translocation of mechanoresponsive transcriptional regulators is an essential step for mechanotransduction. However, how mechanical forces regulate the nuclear import process is not understood. Here, we identify a highly mechanoresponsive nuclear transport receptor (NTR), Importin-7 (Imp7), that drives the nuclear import of YAP, a key regulator of mechanotransduction pathways. Unexpectedly, YAP governs the mechanoresponse of Imp7 by forming a YAP/Imp7 complex that responds to mechanical cues through the Hippo kinases MST1/2. Furthermore, YAP behaves as a dominant cargo of Imp7, restricting the Imp7 binding and the nuclear translocation of other Imp7 cargoes such as Smad3 and Erk2. Thus, the nuclear import process is an additional regulatory layer indirectly regulated by mechanical cues, which activate a preferential Imp7 cargo, YAP, which competes out other cargoes, resulting in signaling crosstalk.We thank Miguel Sánchez for text editing. We thank Erika R. Geisbrecht, Kenneth Irvine, and Ariberto Fassati for kindly providing reagents. This study was supported by grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICIIN)/Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI)/European Regional Development Fund (ARDF/FEDER) “A way to make Europe” (PID2020-118658RB-I00, SAF2017-83130-R, IGP-SO grant MINSEV1512-07-2016, CSD2009-0016 and BFU2016-81912-REDC), Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (Tec4Bio-CM, S2018/NMT¬4443), Fundació La Marató de TV3 (201936-30-31), “La Caixa” Foundation (HR20-00075) and AECC (PROYE20089DELP) all to M.A.d.P. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 641639. M.G.G. and L.S. are sponsored by FPU fellowships (FPU15/03776 and FPU18/05394, respectively). The CNIC is supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICIIN) and the Pro CNIC Foundation, and is a Severo Ochoa Center of Excellence CEX2020-001041-S

Assessing the skill of precipitation and temperature seasonal forecasts in Spain: windows of opportunity related to ENSO events

1. The skill of state-of-the-art operational seasonal forecast models in extratropical latitudes is assessed using a multimodel ensemble from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonalto- Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. In particular, probabilistic forecasts of surface precipitation and maximum temperature in Spain are analyzed using a high-resolution observation gridded dataset (Spain02). To this aim, a simple statistical test based on the observed and predicted tercile anomalies is used. First, the whole period 1960–2000 is considered and it is shown that the only significant skill is found for dry events in autumn. Then, the influence of ENSO events as a potential source of conditional predictability is studied and the validation to strong La Niña or El Niño periods is restricted. Skillful seasonal predictions are found in partial agreement with the observed teleconnections derived from the historical records. On the one hand, predictability is found in spring related to El Niño events for dry events over the south and the Mediterranean coast and for hot events in the southeast areas. In contrast, La Niña drives predictability in winter for dry events over the western part and for hot events in summer over the south and the Mediterranean coast. This study considers both the direct model outputs and the postprocessed predictions obtained using a statistical downscaling method based on analogs. In general, the use of the downscaling method outperforms the direct output for precipitation, whereas in the case of the temperature no improvement is obtained

Exploring the meteorological potential for planning a high performance European Electricity Super-grid: optimal power capacity distribution among countries

The concept of a European Super-grid for electricity presents clear advantages for a reliable and affordable renewable power production (photovoltaics and wind). Based on the mean-variance portfolio optimization analysis, we explore optimal scenarios for the allocation of new renewable capacity at national level in order to provide to energy decision-makers guidance about which regions should be mostly targeted to either maximize total production or reduce its day-to-day variability. The results show that the existing distribution of renewable generation capacity across Europe is far from optimal: i.e., a 'better' spatial distribution of resources could have been achieved with either a ~31% increase in mean power supply (for the same level of day-to-day variability) or a ~37.5% reduction in day-to-day variability (for the same level of mean productivity). Careful planning of additional increments in renewable capacity at the European level could, however, act to significantly ameliorate this deficiency. The choice of where to deploy resources depends, however, on the objective being pursued – on the one hand, if the goal is to maximize average output, then new capacity is best allocated in the countries with highest resources, whereas investment in additional capacity in a north/south dipole pattern across Europe would act to most reduce daily variations and thus decrease the day-to-day volatility of renewable power supply

Positioning systems in Minkowski space-time: from emission to inertial coordinates

The coordinate transformation between emission coordinates and inertial coordinates in Minkowski space-time is obtained for arbitrary configurations of the emitters. It appears that a positioning system always generates two different coordinate domains, namely, the front and the back emission coordinate domains. For both domains, the corresponding covariant expression of the transformation is explicitly given in terms of the emitter world-lines. This task requires the notion of orientation of an emitter configuration. The orientation is shown to be computable from the emission coordinates for the users of a `central' region of the front emission coordinate domain. Other space-time regions associated with the emission coordinates are also outlined.Comment: 20 pages; 1 figur

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values

Rab18 Dynamics in Adipocytes in Relation to Lipogenesis, Lipolysis and Obesity

Lipid droplets (LDs) are organelles that coordinate lipid storage and mobilization, both processes being especially important in cells specialized in managing fat, the adipocytes. Proteomic analyses of LDs have consistently identified the small GTPase Rab18 as a component of the LD coat. However, the specific contribution of Rab18 to adipocyte function remains to be elucidated. Herein, we have analyzed Rab18 expression, intracellular localization and function in relation to the metabolic status of adipocytes. We show that Rab18 production increases during adipogenic differentiation of 3T3-L1 cells. In addition, our data show that insulin induces, via phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K), the recruitment of Rab18 to the surface of LDs. Furthermore, Rab18 overexpression increased basal lipogenesis and Rab18 silencing impaired the lipogenic response to insulin, thereby suggesting that this GTPase promotes fat accumulation in adipocytes. On the other hand, studies of the β-adrenergic receptor agonist isoproterenol confirmed and extended previous evidence for the participation of Rab18 in lipolysis. Together, our data support the view that Rab18 is a common mediator of lipolysis and lipogenesis and suggests that the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is the link that enables Rab18 action on these two processes. Finally, we describe, for the first time, the presence of Rab18 in human adipose tissue, wherein the expression of this GTPase exhibits sex- and depot-specific differences and is correlated to obesity. Taken together, these findings indicate that Rab18 is involved in insulin-mediated lipogenesis, as well as in β-adrenergic-induced lipolysis, likely facilitating interaction of LDs with ER membranes and the exchange of lipids between these compartments. A role for Rab18 in the regulation of adipocyte biology under both normal and pathological conditions is proposed

State of emergency medicine in Spain

Spain has universal public health care coverage. Emergency care provisions are offered to patients in different modalities and levels according to the characteristics of the medical complaint: at primary care centers (PCC), in an extrahospital setting by emergency medical services (EMS) and at hospital emergency departments (ED). We have more than 3,000 PCCs, which are run by family doctors (general practitioners) and pediatricians. On average, there is 1 PCC for every 15,000 to 20,000 inhabitants, and every family doctor is in charge of 1,500 to 2,000 citizens, although less populated zones tend to have lower ratios. Doctors spend part of their duty time in providing emergency care to their own patients. While not fully devoted to emergency medicine (EM) practice, they do manage minor emergencies. However, Spanish EMSs contribute hugely to guarantee population coverage in all situations. These EMS are run by EM technicians (EMT), nurses and doctors, who usually work exclusively in the emergency arena. EDs dealt with more than 25 million consultations in 2008, which implies, on average, that one out of two Spaniards visited an ED during this time. They are usually equipped with a wide range of diagnostic tools, most including ultrasonography and computerized tomography scans. The academic and training background of doctors working in the ED varies: nearly half lack any structured specialty residence training, but many have done specific master or postgraduate studies within the EM field. The demand for emergency care has grown at an annual rate of over 4% during the last decade. This percentage, which was greater than the 2% population increase during the same period, has outpaced the growth in ED capacity. Therefore, Spanish EDs become overcrowded when the system exerts minimal stress. Despite the high EM caseload and the potential severity of the conditions, training in EM is still unregulated in Spain. However, in April 2009 the Spanish Minister of Health announced the imminent approval of an EM specialty, allowing the first EM resident to officially start in 2011. Spanish emergency physicians look forward to the final approval, which will complete the modernization of emergency health care provision in Spain