FFTrees: A toolbox to create, visualize, and evaluate fast-and-frugal decision trees

Fast-and-frugal trees (FFTs) are simple algorithms that facilitate efficient and accurate decisions based on limited information. But despite their successful use in many applied domains, there is no widely available toolbox that allows anyone to easily create, visualize, and evaluate FFTs. We fill this gap by introducing the R package FFTrees. In this paper, we explain how FFTs work, introduce a new class of algorithms called fan for constructing FFTs, and provide a tutorial for using the FFTrees package. We then conduct a simulation across ten real-world datasets to test how well FFTs created by FFTrees can predict data. Simulation results show that FFTs created by FFTrees can predict data as well as popular classification algorithms such as regression and random forests, while remaining simple enough for anyone to understand and use

Icebergs in the North Atlantic: Modelling circulation changes and glacio-marine deposition

In order to investigate meltwater events in the North Atlantic, a simple iceberg generation, drift, and melting routine was implemented in a high-resolution OGCM. Starting from the modelled last glacial state, every 25th day cylindrical model icebergs 300 meters high were released at 32 specific points along the coasts. Icebergs launched at the Barents Shelf margin spread a light meltwater lid over the Norwegian and Greenland Seas, shutting down the deep convection and the anti-clockwise circulation in this area. Due to the constraining ocean circulation, the icebergs produce a tongue of relatively cold and fresh water extending eastward from Hudson Strait that must develop at this location, regardless of iceberg origin. From the total amount of freshwater inferred by the icebergs, the thickness of the deposited IRD could be calculated in dependance of iceberg sediment concentration. In this way, typical extent and thickness of Heinrich layers could be reproduced, running the model for 250 years of steady state with constant iceberg meltwater inflow

The Atlantic Ocean at the last glacial maximum: 1. Objective mapping of the GLAMAP sea-surface conditions

Recent efforts of the German paleoceanographic community have resulted in a unique data set of reconstructed sea-surface temperature for the Atlantic Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum, plus estimates for the extents of glacial sea ice. Unlike prior attempts, the contributing research groups based their data on a common definition of the Last Glacial Maximum chronozone and used the same modern reference data for calibrating the different transfer techniques. Furthermore, the number of processed sediment cores was vastly increased. Thus the new data is a significant advance not only with respect to quality, but also to quantity. We integrate these new data and provide monthly data sets of global sea-surface temperature and ice cover, objectively interpolated onto a regular 1°x1° grid, suitable for forcing or validating numerical ocean and atmosphere models. This set is compared to an existing subjective interpolation of the same base data, in part by employing an ocean circulation model. For the latter purpose, we reconstruct sea surface salinity from the new temperature data and the available oxygen isotope measurements

Recognition of Facial Expressions by Cortical Multi-scale Line and Edge Coding

Face-to-face communications between humans involve emotions, which often are unconsciously conveyed by facial expressions and body gestures. Intelligent human-machine interfaces, for example in cognitive robotics, need to recognize emotions. This paper addresses facial expressions and their neural correlates on the basis of a model of the visual cortex: the multi-scale line and edge coding. The recognition model links the cortical representation with Paul Ekman's Action Units which are related to the different facial muscles. The model applies a top-down categorization with trends and magnitudes of displacements of the mouth and eyebrows based on expected displacements relative to a neutral expression. The happy vs. not-happy categorization yielded a. correct recognition rate of 91%, whereas final recognition of the six expressions happy, anger, disgust, fear, sadness and surprise resulted in a. rate of 78%

Interactivity Mitigates the Impact of Working Memory Depletion on Mental Arithmetic Performance

Doing long sums in the absence of complementary actions or artefacts is a multi-step procedure that quickly taxes working memory; congesting the phonological loop further handicaps performance. In the experiment reported here, participants completed long sums either with hands down?the low interactivity condition?or by moving numbered tokens?the high interactivity condition?while they repeated ?the? continuously, loading the phonological loop, or not. As expected, interactivity and articulatory suppression substantially affected performance; critically, the effect of articulatory suppression was stronger in the low than in the high interactivity condition. In addition, independent measure of mathematics anxiety predicted the impact of articulatory suppression on performance only in the low (not high) interactivity condition. These findings suggest that interactivity augmented overall or systemic working memory resources and diminished the effect of mathematics anxiety, underscoring the importance of characterizing the properties of the system as it is configured by the dynamic agent-environment coupling

Do Characteristics of Faces That Convey Trustworthiness and Dominance Underlie Perceptions of Criminality?

BACKGROUND: This study tested whether the 2D face evaluation model proposed by Oosterhof and Todorov can parsimoniously account for why some faces are perceived as more criminal-looking than others. The 2D model proposes that trust and dominance are spontaneously evaluated from features of faces. These evaluations have adaptive significance from an evolutionary standpoint because they indicate whether someone should be approached or avoided. METHOD: Participants rated the emotional state, personality traits, and criminal appearance of faces shown in photographs. The photographs were of males and females taken under naturalistic conditions (i.e., police mugshots) and highly controlled conditions. In the controlled photographs, the emotion display of the actor was systematically varied (happy expression, emotionally neutral expression, or angry expression). RESULTS: Both male and female faces rated high in criminal appearance were perceived as less trustworthy and more dominant in police mugshots as well as in photographs taken under highly controlled conditions. Additionally, emotionally neutral faces were deemed as less trustworthy if they were perceived as angry, and more dominant if they were morphologically mature. Systematically varying emotion displays also affected criminality ratings, with angry faces perceived as the most criminal, followed by neutral faces and then happy faces. CONCLUSION: The 2D model parsimoniously accounts for criminality perceptions. This study extends past research by demonstrating that morphological features that signal high dominance and low trustworthiness can also signal high criminality. Spontaneous evaluations regarding criminal propensity may have adaptive value in that they may help us to avoid someone who is physically threatening. On the other hand, such evaluations could inappropriately influence decision making in criminal identification lineups. Hence, additional research is needed to discover whether and how people can avoid making evaluations regarding criminality from a person's facial appearance

Expression analysis of E-cadherin, Slug and GSK3β in invasive ductal carcinoma of breast

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cancer progression is linked to a partially dedifferentiated epithelial cell phenotype. The signaling pathways Wnt, Hedgehog, TGF-β and Notch have been implicated in experimental and developmental epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT). Recent findings from our laboratory confirm that active Wnt/β-catenin signaling is critically involved in invasive ductal carcinomas (IDCs) of breast.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the current study, we analyzed the expression patterns and relationships between the key Wnt/β-catenin signaling components- E-cadherin, Slug and GSK3β in IDCs of breast.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 98 IDCs analyzed, 53 (54%) showed loss/or reduced membranous staining of E-cadherin in tumor cells. Nuclear accumulation of Slug was observed in 33 (34%) IDCs examined. Loss or reduced level of cytoplasmic GSK3β expression was observed in 52/98 (53%) cases; while 34/98 (35%) tumors showed nuclear accumulation of GSK3β. Statistical analysis revealed associations of nuclear Slug expression with loss of membranous E-cadherin (p = 0.001); nuclear β-catenin (p = 0.001), and cytoplasmic β-catenin (p = 0.005), suggesting Slug mediated E-cadherin suppression via the activation of Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway in IDCs. Our study also demonstrated significant correlation between GSK3β nuclear localization and tumor grade (p = 0.02), suggesting its association with tumor progression.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study for the first time provided the clinical evidence in support of Wnt/β-catenin signaling upregulation in IDCs and key components of this pathway - E-cadherin, Slug and GSK3β with β-catenin in implementing EMT in these cells.</p

Height and timing of growth spurt during puberty in young people living with vertically acquired HIV in Europe and Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe growth during puberty in young people with vertically acquired HIV. DESIGN: Pooled data from 12 paediatric HIV cohorts in Europe and Thailand. METHODS: One thousand and ninety-four children initiating a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or boosted protease inhibitor based regimen aged 1-10 years were included. Super Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) models described growth from age 8 years using three parameters (average height, timing and shape of the growth spurt), dependent on age and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) (WHO references) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Multivariate regression explored characteristics associated with these three parameters. RESULTS: At ART initiation, median age and HAZ was 6.4 [interquartile range (IQR): 2.8, 9.0] years and -1.2 (IQR: -2.3 to -0.2), respectively. Median follow-up was 9.1 (IQR: 6.9, 11.4) years. In girls, older age and lower HAZ at ART initiation were independently associated with a growth spurt which occurred 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.20-0.62) years later in children starting ART age 6 to 10 years compared with 1 to 2 years and 1.50 (1.21-1.78) years later in those starting with HAZ less than -3 compared with HAZ at least -1. Later growth spurts in girls resulted in continued height growth into later adolescence. In boys starting ART with HAZ less than -1, growth spurts were later in children starting ART in the oldest age group, but for HAZ at least -1, there was no association with age. Girls and boys who initiated ART with HAZ at least -1 maintained a similar height to the WHO reference mean. CONCLUSION: Stunting at ART initiation was associated with later growth spurts in girls. Children with HAZ at least -1 at ART initiation grew in height at the level expected in HIV negative children of a comparable age

Low pre-transplant levels of mannosebinding lectin are associated with viral infections and mortality after haematopoietic allogeneic stem cell transplantation

Background: Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) is a key component of innate immunity. Low serum MBL levels, related to promoter polymorphism and structural variants, have been associated with an increased risk of infection. The aim of this work was to analyse the incidence and severity of infections and mortality in relation to the MBL2 genotype and MBL levels in patients underwent allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (Allo-HSCT). Results: This was a prospective cohort study of 72 consecutive patients underwent Allo-HSCT between January 2007 and June 2009 in a tertiary referral centre. Three periods were considered in the patients? follow-up: the early period (0?30 days after Allo-HSCT), the intermediate period (30?100 days after Allo-HSCT) and the late period (> 100 days after Allo-HSCT). A commercial line probe assay for MBL2 genotyping and an ELISA Kit were used to measure MBL levels. A total of 220 episodes of infection were collected in the 72 patients. No association between donor or recipient MBL2 genotype and infection was found. The first episode of infection presented earlier in patients with pre-transplant MBL levels of < 1000 ng/ml (median 6d vs 8d, p = 0.036). MBL levels < 1000 ng/ml in the pre-transplant period (risk ratio (RR) 2.48, 95% CI 1.00?6.13), neutropenic period (0?30 days, RR 3.28, 95% CI 1.53?7.06) and intermediate period (30?100 days, RR 2.37, 95% CI 1.15?4.90) were associated with increased risk of virus infection. No association with bacterial or fungal disease was found. Mortality was associated with pre-transplant MBL levels < 1000 ng/ml (hazard ratio 5.55, 95% CI 1.17?26.30, p = 0.03) but not with MBL2 genotype. Conclusions: Patients who underwent Allo-HSCT with low pre-transplant MBL levels presented the first episode of infection earlier and had an increased risk of viral infections and mortality in the first 6 months post-transplant. Thus, pre-transplant MBL levels would be important in predicting susceptibility to viral infections and mortality and might be considered a biomarker to be included in the pre-transplantation risk assessment.This work was supported by grants from the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias (Ministry of Health of Spain) PI04/0492 to MC Fariñas and Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Valdecilla (IDIVAL) API 06/01. The content of the paper is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views. The funding body was not involved in the design of the study, collection or analysis of the data, interpretation of the data, or in the writing of the manuscript

Continuous Multi-Parameter Heart Rate Variability Analysis Heralds Onset of Sepsis in Adults

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of sepsis enables timely resuscitation and antibiotics and prevents subsequent morbidity and mortality. Clinical approaches relying on point-in-time analysis of vital signs or lab values are often insensitive, non-specific and late diagnostic markers of sepsis. Exploring otherwise hidden information within intervals-in-time, heart rate variability (HRV) has been documented to be both altered in the presence of sepsis, and correlated with its severity. We hypothesized that by continuously tracking individual patient HRV over time in patients as they develop sepsis, we would demonstrate reduced HRV in association with the onset of sepsis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We monitored heart rate continuously in adult bone marrow transplant (BMT) patients (n = 21) beginning a day before their BMT and continuing until recovery or withdrawal (12+/-4 days). We characterized HRV continuously over time with a panel of time, frequency, complexity, and scale-invariant domain techniques. We defined baseline HRV as mean variability for the first 24 h of monitoring and studied individual and population average percentage change (from baseline) over time in diverse HRV metrics, in comparison with the time of clinical diagnosis and treatment of sepsis (defined as systemic inflammatory response syndrome along with clinically suspected infection requiring treatment). Of the 21 patients enrolled, 4 patients withdrew, leaving 17 patients who completed the study. Fourteen patients developed sepsis requiring antibiotic therapy, whereas 3 did not. On average, for 12 out of 14 infected patients, a significant (25%) reduction prior to the clinical diagnosis and treatment of sepsis was observed in standard deviation, root mean square successive difference, sample and multiscale entropy, fast Fourier transform, detrended fluctuation analysis, and wavelet variability metrics. For infected patients (n = 14), wavelet HRV demonstrated a 25% drop from baseline 35 h prior to sepsis on average. For 3 out of 3 non-infected patients, all measures, except root mean square successive difference and entropy, showed no significant reduction. Significant correlation was present amongst these HRV metrics for the entire population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Continuous HRV monitoring is feasible in ambulatory patients, demonstrates significant HRV alteration in individual patients in association with, and prior to clinical diagnosis and treatment of sepsis, and merits further investigation as a means of providing early warning of sepsis