Predicting Maximum Tree Heights and Other Traits from Allometric Scaling and Resource Limitations

Terrestrial vegetation plays a central role in regulating the carbon and water cycles, and adjusting planetary albedo. As such, a clear understanding and accurate characterization of vegetation dynamics is critical to understanding and modeling the broader climate system. Maximum tree height is an important feature of forest vegetation because it is directly related to the overall scale of many ecological and environmental quantities and is an important indicator for understanding several properties of plant communities, including total standing biomass and resource use. We present a model that predicts local maximal tree height across the entire continental United States, in good agreement with data. The model combines scaling laws, which encode the average, base-line behavior of many tree characteristics, with energy budgets constrained by local resource limitations, such as precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. In addition to predicting maximum tree height in an environment, our framework can be extended to predict how other tree traits, such as stomatal density, depend on these resource constraints. Furthermore, it offers predictions for the relationship between height and whole canopy albedo, which is important for understanding the Earth's radiative budget, a critical component of the climate system. Because our model focuses on dominant features, which are represented by a small set of mechanisms, it can be easily integrated into more complicated ecological or climate models.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Research Experience for Undergraduates stipend)Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (Graduate Research Fellowship Program)Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Presidential FellowshipEugene V. and Clare Thaw Charitable TrustEngineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (PHY0202180)Colorado College (Venture Grant Program

Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting climate change across the globe. Changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously result in complex non-linear ecosystem responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf- and canopy-scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (Community Land Model version 3.5 coupled to the Dynamic Global Vegetation model – CLM3.5–DGVM; Ecosystem Demography model version 2 – ED2; the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 – JULES; Simple Biosphere model version 3 – SiB3; and the soil–plant–atmosphere model – SPA) to simulate the responses of leaf- and canopy-scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation, but all the models were consistent with the prediction that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C cooler than current ambient temperatures. There was greater model–data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to changes in temperature than in the response to temperature by net photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf area index (LAI). Modelled canopy-scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf-scale fluxes using LAI. At the leaf-scale, the models did not agree on the temperature or magnitude of the optimum points of An, Vcmax or gs, and model variation in these parameters was compensated for by variations in the absolute magnitude of simulated LAI and how it altered with temperature. Across the models, there was, however, consistency in two leaf-scale responses: (1) change in An with temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes; and (2) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) increased with temperature, especially when combined with drought. These results suggest that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.This research was enabled by a grant from the Andes–Amazon Initiative of The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. L. Rowland gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) for a NERC PhD studentship, and NERC grant NE/J011002/1; PM also acknowledges support from ARC FT110100457

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Monitoring plant functional diversity from space

The world’s ecosystems are losing biodiversity fast. A satellite mission designed to track changes in plant functional diversity around the globe could deepen our understanding of the pace and consequences of this change and how to manage it

Modern cooling strategies for ultra-deep hydropower mines

The increasing mining depths of South African gold mine deposits are resulting in ever-increasing heat loads associated with depth and the geothermal gradient. Together with changes in the mining horizons brought about by the depletion of older, shallower, highgrade reserves, this leads to the need for the continuous review and redesign of cooling requirements. Traditionally, cooling requirements were met by using a combination of cooling strategies, including bulk air cooling on surface and underground. If this proved to be insufficient, chilled service water and secondary remote air-cooling systems were introduced. This paper reviews these practices in order to provide a cost-effective means of catering for the introduction of hydropower at the Gold Fields Ltd South African operations. Some of the equipment that has been developed to meet the requirements of both hydropower and refrigeration includes hydropower fans, cooling coils and in-stope venturis. These are individually described and discussed, together with their roles within the greater strategy. The planned change in the cooling strategy and the employment of these technologies have effectively doubled the cooling available, from 10 MW to more than 20 MW, extracted from the hydropower water used to drive the mining equipment. In conclusion, the cooling strategy described allows a total heat load of approximately 52 MW to be successfully ventilated and cooled through the use of combined surface and underground refrigeration installations, and through the use of hydropower-chilled water.http://www.mvssa.co.zaam2017Mining Engineerin

In situ oligonucleotide synthesis on poly(dimethylsiloxane): a flexible substrate for microarray fabrication

In this paper, we demonstrate in situ synthesis of oligonucleotide probes on poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) microchannels through use of conventional phosphoramidite chemistry. PDMS polymer was moulded into a series of microchannels using standard soft lithography (micro-moulding), with dimensions <100 μm. The surface of the PDMS was derivatized by exposure to ultraviolet/ozone followed by vapour phase deposition of glycidoxypropyltrimethoxysilane and reaction with poly(ethylene glycol) spacer, resulting in a reactive surface for oligonucleotide coupling. High, reproducible yields were achieved for both 6mer and 21mer probes as assessed by hybridization to fluorescent oligonucleotides. Oligonucleotide surface density was comparable with that obtained on glass substrates. These results suggest PDMS as a stable and flexible alternative to glass as a suitable substrate in the fabrication and synthesis of DNA microarrays

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections