Measures of Model Performance Based On the Log Accuracy Ratio

Quantitative assessment of modeling and forecasting of continuous quantities uses a variety of approaches. We review existing literature describing metrics for forecast accuracy and bias, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. Of these accuracy metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is one of the most common across many fields and has been widely applied in recent space science literature and we highlight the benefits and drawbacks of MAPE and proposed alternatives. We then introduce the log accuracy ratio and derive from it two metrics: the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias. Robust methods for estimating the spread of a multiplicative linear model using the log accuracy ratio are also presented. The developed metrics are shown to be easy to interpret, robust, and to mitigate the key drawbacks of their more widely used counterparts based on relative errors and percentage errors. Their use is illustrated with radiation belt electron flux modeling examples.Peer reviewe

The Critical Coupling Likelihood Method: A new approach for seamless integration of environmental and operating conditions of gravitational wave detectors into gravitational wave searches

Any search effort for gravitational waves (GW) using interferometric detectors like LIGO needs to be able to identify if and when noise is coupling into the detector's output signal. The Critical Coupling Likelihood (CCL) method has been developed to characterize potential noise coupling and in the future aid GW search efforts. By testing two hypotheses about pairs of channels, CCL is able to identify undesirable coupled instrumental noise from potential GW candidates. Our preliminary results show that CCL can associate up to $\sim 80$ of observed artifacts with $SNR \geq 8$, to local noise sources, while reducing the duty cycle of the instrument by $\lesssim 15$. An approach like CCL will become increasingly important as GW research moves into the Advanced LIGO era, going from the first GW detection to GW astronomy.Comment: submitted CQ

Boundaries of Siegel Disks: Numerical Studies of their Dynamics and Regularity

Siegel disks are domains around fixed points of holomorphic maps in which the maps are locally linearizable (i.e., become a rotation under an appropriate change of coordinates which is analytic in a neighborhood of the origin). The dynamical behavior of the iterates of the map on the boundary of the Siegel disk exhibits strong scaling properties which have been intensively studied in the physical and mathematical literature. In the cases we study, the boundary of the Siegel disk is a Jordan curve containing a critical point of the map (we consider critical maps of different orders), and there exists a natural parametrization which transforms the dynamics on the boundary into a rotation. We compute numerically this parameterization and use methods of harmonic analysis to compute the global Holder regularity of the parametrization for different maps and rotation numbers. We obtain that the regularity of the boundaries and the scaling exponents are universal numbers in the sense of renormalization theory (i.e., they do not depend on the map when the map ranges in an open set), and only depend on the order of the critical point of the map in the boundary of the Siegel disk and the tail of the continued function expansion of the rotation number. We also discuss some possible relations between the regularity of the parametrization of the boundaries and the corresponding scaling exponents. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.NSFMathematic

A Comparison of Qualifications Based-Selection and Best Value Procurement for Construction Manager/General Contractor Highway Construction

Faster project delivery and the infusion of contractor knowledge into design are the primary drivers for choosing construction manager/general contractor (CM/GC) project delivery. This paper focuses on the use of qualifications-based (QBS) and best-value (BV) procurement approaches, how and why agencies use each, and their associated opportunities and obstacles. Data for this study were obtained from a majority of federally funded CM/GC projects completed between 2005 to 2015. The findings are that BV and QBS projects characteristics and performance have no statistically significant difference. The choice of BV or QBS coincides with the agency’s CM/GC stage of organizational development and influences of non-agency stakeholders on the CM/GC process. When agencies and the local industry are new to CM/GC, they were found to use BV as it is closer to the traditional procurement culture and it is perceived to result in a fair market project price. Alternatively, agencies and local industry partners with an established history of using CM/GC were found to choose QBS. The low level of design at the time of procurement, means that assumptions relating to risk, production rates, materials sources, etc. may be too preliminary to secure a reliable price. The use of BV procurement was found to pose a risk to innovation and increase negotiation efforts. Qualitative trends from the project data, interviews and literature point to agencies using QBS for the majority of CM/GC project and BV on CM/GC projects with lesser complexity or more highly developed designs at the time of selection

Quantification of depth of anesthesia by nonlinear time series analysis of brain electrical activity

We investigate several quantifiers of the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal with respect to their ability to indicate depth of anesthesia. For 17 patients anesthetized with Sevoflurane, three established measures (two spectral and one based on the bispectrum), as well as a phase space based nonlinear correlation index were computed from consecutive EEG epochs. In absence of an independent way to determine anesthesia depth, the standard was derived from measured blood plasma concentrations of the anesthetic via a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for the estimated effective brain concentration of Sevoflurane. In most patients, the highest correlation is observed for the nonlinear correlation index D*. In contrast to spectral measures, D* is found to decrease monotonically with increasing (estimated) depth of anesthesia, even when a "burst-suppression" pattern occurs in the EEG. The findings show the potential for applications of concepts derived from the theory of nonlinear dynamics, even if little can be assumed about the process under investigation.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Acute effect of meal glycemic index and glycemic load on blood glucose and insulin responses in humans

OBJECTIVE: Foods with contrasting glycemic index when incorporated into a meal, are able to differentially modify glycemia and insulinemia. However, little is known about whether this is dependent on the size of the meal. The purposes of this study were: i) to determine if the differential impact on blood glucose and insulin responses induced by contrasting GI foods is similar when provided in meals of different sizes, and; ii) to determine the relationship between the total meal glycemic load and the observed serum glucose and insulin responses. METHODS: Twelve obese women (BMI 33.7 ± 2.4 kg/m(2)) were recruited. Subjects received 4 different meals in random order. Two meals had a low glycemic index (40–43%) and two had a high-glycemic index (86–91%). Both meal types were given as two meal sizes with energy supply corresponding to 23% and 49% of predicted basal metabolic rate. Thus, meals with three different glycemic loads (95, 45–48 and 22 g) were administered. Blood samples were taken before and after each meal to determine glucose, free-fatty acids, insulin and glucagon concentrations over a 5-h period. RESULTS: An almost 2-fold higher serum glucose and insulin incremental area under the curve (AUC) over 2 h for the high- versus low-glycemic index same sized meals was observed (p < 0.05), however, for the serum glucose response in small meals this was not significant (p = 0.38). Calculated meal glycemic load was associated with 2 and 5 h serum glucose (r = 0.58, p < 0.01) and insulin (r = 0.54, p < 0.01) incremental and total AUC. In fact, when comparing the two meals with similar glycemic load but differing carbohydrate amount and type, very similar serum glucose and insulin responses were found. No differences were observed for serum free-fatty acids and glucagon profile in response to meal glycemic index. CONCLUSION: This study showed that foods of contrasting glycemic index induced a proportionally comparable difference in serum insulin response when provided in both small and large meals. The same was true for the serum glucose response but only in large meals. Glycemic load was useful in predicting the acute impact on blood glucose and insulin responses within the context of mixed meals

Genetic dissection of haploid male fertility in maize (Zea mays L.)

Haploid genome doubling is a key limiting step of haploid breeding in maize. Spontaneous restoration of haploid male fertility (HMF) provides a more promising method than the artificial doubling process. To reveal the genetic basis of HMF, haploids were obtained from the offspring of 285 F2:3 families, derived from the cross Zheng58 × K22. The F2:3 families were used as the female donor and Yu high inducer No. 1 (YHI‐1) as the male inducer line. The rates of HMF from each family line were evaluated at two field sites over two planting seasons. HMF displayed incomplete dominance. Transgressive segregation of haploids from F2:3 families was observed relative to haploids derived from the two parents of the mapping population. A total of nine quantitative trait loci (QTL) were detected, which were distributed on chromosomes 1, 3, 4, 7 and 8. Three major QTL, qHMF3b, qHMF7a and qHMF7b were detected in both locations, respectively. These QTL could be useful to predict the ability of spontaneous haploid genome doubling, and to accelerate the haploid breeding process by introgression or aggregation of those QTL

On the statistics of edge fluctuations: comparative study between various fusion devices

In this paper we present a statistical study of edge fluctuations taken with the Gas Puffing Imaging (GPI) diagnostics. We carry out a comparison of GPI signal from an extensive database including four devices (two Tokamaks and two Reversed Field Pinches). The data are analyzed in terms of their statistical moments Skewness and Kurtosis, as done in [B. Labit, et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. \textbf{98}, 255002 (2007)]. The data align along parabolic curves, although different from machine to machine, with some spread around the best-fitting curve. A discussion about the meaning of the parabolic trend as well as the departure of real data from it is provided. A phenomenological model is finally provided, attempting to accomodate experimental evidence.Comment: To appear in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusio

Probing quantum gravity using photons from a flare of the active galactic nucleus Markarian 501 observed by the MAGIC telescope

We analyze the timing of photons observed by the MAGIC telescope during a flare of the active galactic nucleus Mkn 501 for a possible correlation with energy, as suggested by some models of quantum gravity (QG), which predict a vacuum refractive index \simeq 1 + (E/M_{QGn})^n, n = 1,2. Parametrizing the delay between gamma-rays of different energies as \Delta t =\pm\tau_l E or \Delta t =\pm\tau_q E^2, we find \tau_l=(0.030\pm0.012) s/GeV at the 2.5-sigma level, and \tau_q=(3.71\pm2.57)x10^{-6} s/GeV^2, respectively. We use these results to establish lower limits M_{QG1} > 0.21x10^{18} GeV and M_{QG2} > 0.26x10^{11} GeV at the 95% C.L. Monte Carlo studies confirm the MAGIC sensitivity to propagation effects at these levels. Thermal plasma effects in the source are negligible, but we cannot exclude the importance of some other source effect.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, Phys. Lett. B, reflects published versio

Optimizing the DFCN Broadcast Protocol with a Parallel Cooperative Strategy of Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms

Proceeding of: 5th International Conference, EMO 2009, Nantes, France, April 7-10, 2009This work presents the application of a parallel coopera- tive optimization approach to the broadcast operation in mobile ad-hoc networks (manets). The optimization of the broadcast operation im- plies satisfying several objectives simultaneously, so a multi-objective approach has been designed. The optimization lies on searching the best configurations of the dfcn broadcast protocol for a given manet sce- nario. The cooperation of a team of multi-objective evolutionary al- gorithms has been performed with a novel optimization model. Such model is a hybrid parallel algorithm that combines a parallel island- based scheme with a hyperheuristic approach. Results achieved by the algorithms in different stages of the search process are analyzed in order to grant more computational resources to the most suitable algorithms. The obtained results for a manets scenario, representing a mall, demon- strate the validity of the new proposed approach.This work has been supported by the ec (feder) and the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science inside the ‘Plan Nacional de i+d+i’ (tin2005-08818-c04) and (tin2008-06491-c04-02). The work of Gara Miranda has been developed under grant fpu-ap2004-2290.Publicad