An Integrated Approach to Flood Risk Management: A Case Study of Navaluenga (Central Spain)

Flood risk management decisions require the rational assessment of mitigation strategies. This is a complex decision-making process involving many uncertainties. This paper presents a case study where a cost-benefit based methodology is used to define the best intervention measures for flood-risk mitigation in central Spain. Based on different flood hazard scenarios, several structural measures considered by the local Basin Water Authority and others defined by engineering criteria were checked for operability. Non-systematic data derived from dendrogeomorphological analysis of riparian trees were included in the flood frequency analysis. Flood damage was assessed by means of depth-damage functions, and flooded urban areas were obtained by applying a hydraulic model. The best defense strategies were obtained by a cost-benefit procedure, where uncertainties derived from each analytical process were incorporated based on a stochastic approach to estimate expected economic losses. The results showed that large structural solutions are not economically viable when compared with other smaller structural measures, presumably because of the pre-established location of dams in the upper part of the basin which do not laminate the flow generated by the surrounding catchment to Navalueng

Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913–2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency analysis using documentary data (plus gauged records) improved the estimates of the probabilities of rare floods (return intervals of 100 yr and higher). Under non-stationary modelling flood occurrence associated with an exceedance probability of 0.01 (i.e. return period of 100 yr) has changed over the last 500 yr due to decadal and multi-decadal variability of the NAO. Yet, frequency analysis under stationary models was successful in providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles estimated by non-stationary models fluctuate through time

Large wood in rivers and its Influence on flood hazard

In terms of flood hazard, the presence of large wood (logs, trees, branches and roots) in rivers may aggravate the consequences of flood events. This material may affect infrastructures such as bridges, weirs, etc., especially those intersecting forested mountain rivers. Until recently, a widely accepted practice was to systematically remove wood debris from river channels as a preventive measure. However, studies have shown that this practice may be useless as the material is transported and deposited after each flood and may even not benefit the long term natural balance of the river ecosystem. Therefore, the presence of this woody material in rivers must be managed and included in flood hazard and risk analysis. In this paper we present a comprehensive methodological approach to study the role of large wood in rivers, with a focus on flood hazard. First, to understand the dynamics of wood recruitment, the contributing areas delivering wood to the streams have to be delineated and the recruitment mechanisms studied. Thus, an estimate can be obtained of the potential volume of deliverable wood. To analyse wood transport we present a numerical model, which allows simulates the behaviour of individual pieces of wood together with hydrodynamics. Finally, we analyse the impact of wood on the magnitude of flood events (in terms of water level, flow velocity or flooded areas), using as an example a flood which occurred in December 1997 in the Sierra de Gredos. The results allowed us to reproduce the wood deposit patterns during the event and to reconstruct the bridge blockage. This caused the upstream water level to rise by up to 2 meters and reduced the flow velocity, which favoured debris and sediment deposits. Consequently, the effects of flooding were equivalent to those of a greater magnitude event. This increase in the flood hazard has been numerically quantified.Postprint (published version

Dendrogeomorphological evidence of flood frequency changes and human activities (Portainé basin, spanish Pyrenees)

The Portainé mountain catchment, containing the Port Ainé ski resort (Lleida, Spanish Pyrenees), displays active erosional and depositional phenomena caused by periodic torrential floods. These events present a potential risk and incur significant economic losses. In ungauged remote catchments (like Portainé), trees might be the only paleohydrological source of information regarding past floods. Thus, we estimated the temporal and spatial distribution of torrential floods by dendrogeomorphological techniques to assess whether human impact (land-use changes and infrastructure works) affected their frequency and magnitude. One-hundred and sixty-six samples from 67 trees belonging to 10 different species were analyzed; past flood events of the last 50 years were identified by dating and relating evidence between them. Moreover, a detailed geomorphological study was performed and the available historical data compiled. Our multi-evidence analysis provides new insight into the occurrence of paleofloods. Changes in flood frequency since 2006, especially from 2008, suggest that the geomorphological equilibrium has been disturbed, coinciding with both major earthworks within the ski resort and intense but not extraordinary rainfall. This conclusion has important implications for land planning and the design of future projects in the mountain watersheds

Flood Hazard Management in Public Mountain Recreation Areas vs. Ungauged Fluvial Basins. Case Study of the Caldera de Taburiente National Park, Canary Islands (Spain)

Las Angustias River is an ungauged stream in the Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Spain), where frequent intense flash-flood events occur. The aim of this research is to analyze the flood hazard at the Playa de Taburiente. Based on the limited information available (short time-series of daily precipitation), a statistical frequency analysis of 24 h rainfall was completed and the precipitation results were transformed into surface runoff. To determine if the model underestimates the flows that are generated in the basin, the dendro-geomorphological information available was used to calibrate results. The results of the HMS model were significantly lower. At this point, both the rainfall data and the rainfall-runoff model were re-analyzed to maximize the rainfall intensity values and the runoff generated (increasing the CN value for the basin). For the 1997 flood event, a 1250 m3·s−1 flood minimizes the RMSE for the disturbed tree sample; this flow value also clearly exceeds any peak flow derived from the rainfall-runoff analysis. It is only when rainfall intensity and surface runoff are maximized that the peak flows obtained approximate those associated with dendro-geomorphological data. The results highlight the difficulties of flood hazard management in ungauged torrential basins in mountain recreational areas (such as National Parks). Thus, in the absence of flow records, when considering the maximum rainfall intensity scenario may be a useful and effective tool for flood risk management

Large wood transport as significant influence on flood risk in a mountain village

An important issue that is not considered in most flood risk assessments in mountain villages in Spain is the transport of solids associated with the flood flow, in this case, large wood transport. The transport and deposition of this wood in urban areas may be a potentially worse hazard than the flood flow itself. Despite its importance, large wood is a key ecological element in rivers, so removing it could be an unsuccessful approach. Therefore, efforts are needed in the better understanding of wood transport and deposition in streams. To analyse this process, scenario-based 2D hydrodynamic flood modelling was carried out. Since flood risk assessment has considerable intrinsic uncertainty, probabilistic thinking was complemented by possibilistic thinking, considering worst-case scenarios. This procedure obtained a probabilistic flood map for a 500-year return period. Then, a series of scenarios was built based on wood budget to simulate wood transport and deposition. Results allowed us to identify the main infrastructures sensitive to the passing of large wood and simulate the consequences of their blockage due to wood. The potential damage was estimated as well as the preliminary social vulnerability for all scenarios (with and without wood transport). This work shows that wood transport and deposition during flooding may increase potential damage at critical stream configurations (bridges) by up to 50% and the number of potentially exposed people nearby these areas by up to 35%

Datación de avenidas torrenciales y flujos de derrubios mediante metodologías dendrogeomorfológicas (barranco de Portainé, Lleida, España).

La dendrogeomorfología resulta una herramienta muy útil en el análisis científico-técnico de las avenidas y flujos de derrubios en torrentes de alta montaña, en los que las fuentes de datos convencionales (caudales o precipitaciones) son escasas o inexistentes y presentan una cierta problemática social. El barranco de Portainé, en cuya cabecera se sitúa la estación de esquí homónima de Port Ainé (Lleida, España), cumple estas características. Fenómenos erosivos y deposicionales asociados, sobre todo, a períodos de lluvias intensas de verano, afectan periódicamente a la carretera de acceso a la estación de esquí, que atraviesa el barranco en varios puntos, con las consiguientes pérdidas económicas y potenciales daños personales y a los servicios. Con este trabajo se pretende estimar, mediante técnicas dendrogeomorfológicas, el número y la distribución temporal de avenidas y flujos torrenciales en el barranco, para conocer si las interacciones antrópicas en la red hidrográfica, asociadas a la apertura y operación de la estación de esquí y los accesos a la misma, pueden haber modificado su frecuencia y magnitud. Se han muestreado principalmente aquellos ejemplares arbóreos que presentaban daños externos manifiestos, originados por el impacto de los materiales arrastrados por las avenidas. Además se ha realizado un detallado estudio geomorfológico y se han recopilado los datos históricos disponibles. Con toda esta información se ha generado una base de datos de eventos pretéritos de avenidas para un periodo de 50 años, en la que se ha determinado un incremento significativo de estos eventos en las últimas décadas

Four-topic correlation between flood dendrogeomorphological evidence and hydraulic parameters (the Portainé stream, Iberian Peninsula)

Torrential floods are hazardous hydrological phenomena that produce significant economic damage worldwide. Flood reconstruction is still problematic in ungauged mountainous areas due to the lack of systematic data, so indirect techniques are required. This paper presents an integrated palaeoflood study of a Pyrenean stream that combines fluvio-torrential geomorphology, dendrogeomorphology, palaeoflood discharge estimation and flow hydraulics. The use of a total station and airborne LiDAR data allows detailed topography for geomorphological mapping and running a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Based on the height of scars on several damaged trees, we obtained palaeodischarges of 316 m3 s−1 and 314 m3 s−1 for the 2008 and 2010 floods. The hydraulic parameters were related to the geomorphic position of trees, showing a positive relation between most energetic geomorphic elements and both flow depth and velocity values. The most affected trees are located in intermediate energy geomorphic positions. Analysing variation in scar height and flow stage differences, we suggest that most reliable trees for peak discharge estimation correspond to those in areas related with fluvio-torrential processes of intermediate energy. This multidisciplinary palaeohydrological study relates flood hydrodynamics with the damage to trees and their geomorphological characteristics, focusing on the hydraulic parameters of the peak flow (depth, velocity and unit stream power), which has never been performed before. The proposed approach shows strong potential for palaeoflood analysis in ungauged mountain catchments with scarce nonsystematic data

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs: Nine new double-line spectroscopic binary stars

Context. The CARMENES spectrograph is surveying ~300 M dwarf stars in search for exoplanets. Among the target stars, spectroscopic binary systems have been discovered, which can be used to measure fundamental properties of stars. Aims. Using spectroscopic observations, we determine the orbital and physical properties of nine new double-line spectroscopic binary systems by analysing their radial velocity curves. Methods. We use two-dimensional cross-correlation techniques to derive the radial velocities of the targets, which are then employed to determine the orbital properties. Photometric data from the literature are also analysed to search for possible eclipses and to measure stellar variability, which can yield rotation periods. Results. Out of the 342 stars selected for the CARMENES survey, 9 have been found to be double-line spectroscopic binaries, with periods ranging from 1.13 to ~8000 days and orbits with eccentricities up to 0.54. We provide empirical orbital properties and minimum masses for the sample of spectroscopic binaries. Absolute masses are also estimated from mass-luminosity calibrations, ranging between ~0.1 and ~0.6 Msol . Conclusions. These new binary systems increase the number of double-line M dwarf binary systems with known orbital parameters by 15%, and they have lower mass ratios on average.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 17 pages, 4 figure

Recent advances on dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood hazard analysis in Spain.

Estudios dendroecológicos para el análisis de regímentes torrenciales y avenida