Modulation of precipitation by conditional symmetric instability release

Although many theoretical and observational studies have investigated the mechanism of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) release and associated it with mesoscale atmospheric phenomena such as frontal precipitation bands, cloud heads in rapidly developing extratropical cyclones and sting jets, its climatology and contribution to precipitation have not been extensively documented. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of CSI release, yielding slantwise convection, to climatological precipitation accumulations for the North Atlantic and western Europe. Case studies reveal that CSI release could be common along cold fronts of mature extratropical cyclones and the North Atlantic storm track is found to be a region with large CSI according to two independent CSI metrics. Correlations of CSI with accumulated precipitation are also large in this region and CSI release is inferred to be occurring about 20% of the total time over depths of over 1km. We conclude that the inability of current global weather forecast and climate prediction models to represent CSI release (due to insufficient resolution yet lack of subgrid parametrization schemes) may lead to errors in precipitation distributions, particularly in the region of the North Atlantic storm track

Evaluating statistical cloud schemes: what can we gain from ground-based remote sensing?

Statistical cloud schemes with prognostic probability distribution functions have become more important in atmospheric modeling, especially since they are in principle scale adaptive and capture cloud physics in more detail. While in theory the schemes have a great potential, their accuracy is still questionable. High-resolution three-dimensional observational data of water vapor and cloud water, which could be used for testing them, are missing. We explore the potential of ground-based remote sensing such as lidar, microwave, and radar to evaluate prognostic distribution moments using the “perfect model approach.” This means that we employ a high-resolution weather model as virtual reality and retrieve full three-dimensional atmospheric quantities and virtual ground-based observations. We then use statistics from the virtual observation to validate the modeled 3-D statistics. Since the data are entirely consistent, any discrepancy occurring is due to the method. Focusing on total water mixing ratio, we find that the mean ratio can be evaluated decently but that it strongly depends on the meteorological conditions as to whether the variance and skewness are reliable. Using some simple schematic description of different synoptic conditions, we show how statistics obtained from point or line measurements can be poor at representing the full three-dimensional distribution of water in the atmosphere. We argue that a careful analysis of measurement data and detailed knowledge of the meteorological situation is necessary to judge whether we can use the data for an evaluation of higher moments of the humidity distribution used by a statistical cloud scheme

Combination of mesoscale and synoptic mechanisms for triggering an isolated thunderstorm: Observational case study of CSIP IOP 1

Copyright @ 2007 AMSAn isolated thunderstorm formed in the southern United Kingdom on 15 June 2005 and moved through the area where a large number of observational instruments were deployed as part of the Convective Storm Initiation Project. Earlier, a convergence line had formed downstream of Devon in the southwest of the United Kingdom in a southwesterly airflow, along which a series of light showers had formed. The depth of these showers was limited by a capping inversion, or lid, at around 2.5 km. The deep thunderstorm convection developed from one of these showers when the convection broke through the lid and ascended up to the next inversion, associated with a tropopause fold at around 6 km. A series of clear-air reflectivity RHIs are used to map the height of the capping inversion and its lifting resulting from the ascent along the convergence line. The origins of the lid are tracked back to some descent from the midtroposphere along dry adiabats. The strength of the lid was weaker along a northwest-to-southeast-oriented region located behind an overrunning upper cold front. The transition from shallow to deep convection occurred where this region with a weaker lid intersected the region with a raised lid, oriented southwest to northeast, downstream of Devon. A very high resolution forecast model that is being developed by the Met Office predicted the isolated thunderstorm successfully. This success depended on the accurate representation of the following two scales: the synoptic-scale and the surface-forced mesoscale convergence line. The interaction between these scales localized the convection sufficiently in space and time for the initiation and subsequent development to be highly predictable despite the relatively poor representation in the model of processes at the cloud scale.This work was funded from the Natural Environment Research Council and the Met Office National Meteorology Programme

A ‘warm path’ for Gulf Stream–troposphere interactions

Warm advection by the Gulf Stream creates a characteristic ‘tongue’ of warm water leaving a strong imprint on the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution in the western North Atlantic. This study aims at quantifying the climatological impact of this feature on cyclones travelling across this region in winter using a combination of reanalysis data and numerical experiments. It is suggested that the Gulf Stream ‘warm tongue’ is conducive to enhanced upward motion in cyclones because (i) it helps maintain a high equivalent potential temperature of air parcels at low levels which favors deep ascent in the warm conveyor belt of cyclones and (ii) because the large SST gradients to the north of the warm tongue drive a thermally direct circulation reinforcing and, possibly, destabilizing, the transverse circulation embedded in cyclones. This hypothesis is confirmed by comparing simulations at 12 km resolution from the Met Office Unified Model forced with realistic SST distribution to simulations with an SST distribution from which the Gulf Stream warm tongue was artificially removed or made colder by . It is also supported by a dynamical diagnostic applied to the ERA interim data-set over the wintertime period (1979–2012). The mechanism of oceanic forcing highlighted in this study is associated with near thermal equilibration of low level air masses with SST in the warm sector of cyclones passing over the Gulf Stream warm tongue, which is in sharp contrast to what occurs in their cold sector. It is suggested that this ‘warm path’ for the climatic impact of the Gulf Stream on the North Atlantic storm-track is not currently represented in climate models because of their coarse horizontal resolution

The surprising role of orography in the initiation of an isolated thunderstorm in southern England

Many factors, both mesoscale and larger scale, often come together in order for a particular convective initiation to take place. The authors describe a modeling study of a case from the Convective Storms Initiation Project (CSIP) in which a single thunderstorm formed behind a front in the southern United Kingdom. The key features of the case were a tongue of low-level high θw air associated with a forward-sloping split front (overrunning lower θw air above), a convergence line, and a “lid” of high static stability air, which the shower was initially constrained below but later broke through. In this paper, the authors analyze the initiation of the storm, which can be traced back to a region of high ground (Dartmoor) at around 0700 UTC, in more detail using model sensitivity studies with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). It is established that the convergence line was initially caused by roughness effects but had a significant thermal component later. Dartmoor had a key role in the development of the thunderstorm. A period of asymmetric flow over the high ground, with stronger low-level descent in the lee, led to a hole in a layer of low-level clouds downstream. The surface solar heating through this hole, in combination with the tongue of low-level high θw air associated with the front, caused the shower to initiate with sufficient lifting to enable it later to break through the lid

The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0/6.1 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Land 6.0: the latest science configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES land surface model developed for use across all timescales. Global Atmosphere 6.0 includes the ENDGame dynamical core, which significantly increases mid-latitude variability improving a known model bias. Alongside developments of the model’s physical parametrisations, ENDGame also increases variability in the tropics, which leads to an improved representation of tropical cyclones and other tropical phenomena. Further developments of the atmospheric and land surface parametrisations improve other aspects of model performance, including the forecasting of surface weather phenomena. We also describe Global Atmosphere 6.1 and Global Land 6.1, which include a small number of long-standing differences from our main trunk configurations that we continue to require for operational global weather prediction. Since July 2014, GA6.1/GL6.1 has been used by the Met Office for operational global NWP, whilst GA6.0/GL6.0 was implemented in its remaining global prediction systems over the following year

A pan-African convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

A convection-permitting multi-year regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) IMPALA (Improving Model Processes for African cLimAte) project and its configuration, domain and forcing data are described here in detail. The model (CP4-Africa) uses a 4.5km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parametrization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea-surface which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parametrizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface and aerosol climatologies of the CP4-Africa model, has been run to aid understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parametrization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in the CP4-Africa model is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first 5 years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa - giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent

Radar and modelling studies of upright and slantwise convection

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Virtual Reality Modeling Language generation tools for visualization of database content in three dimensions

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, February 1999.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 72-73).New technologies for the three-dimensional scene description, such as VRML97, open new possibilities to visualize large amounts of information in a new way. These technologies used through the Internet should make the access to the information independent of the platform and of the location. To reach these goals, we explore a fusion of the VRML, Java, and Database technologies to design applications for the visualization of information stored in databases in three­dimension. The research is focused on design tools that allow a multimodal display of any kind of information in a three-dimension scene described in VRML97. The architecture associated with this design should allow interaction and dynamic refresh of these worlds. The technology is essentially client-server based with ambition to make the tools as modular as possible to have the ability to apply them visualization on different kind of databases, and to use different representations on the same database. The design should also abstract as far as possible the data from the different components of the project and store the maximum in the database to make easier to create of new applications.by Cyril Morcrette.S.M