Regret affects the choice between neoadjuvant therapy and upfront surgery for potentially resectable pancreatic cancer

Background: When treating potentially resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma, therapeutic decisions are left to the sensibility of treating clinicians who, faced with a decision that post hoc can be proven wrong, may feel a sense of regret that they want to avoid. A regret-based decision model was applied to evaluate attitudes to-ward neoadjuvant therapy versus upfront surgery for potentially resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma.Methods: Three clinical scenarios describing high-, intermediate-, and low-risk disease-specific mortality after upfront surgery were presented to 60 respondents (20 oncologists, 20 gastroenterologists, and 20 surgeons). Respondents were asked to report their regret of omission and commission regarding neo-adjuvant chemotherapy on a scale between 0 (no regret) and 100 (maximum regret). The threshold model and a multilevel mixed regression were applied to analyze respondents' attitudes toward neo-adjuvant therapy.Results: The lowest regret of omission was elicited in the low-risk scenario, and the highest regret in the high-risk scenario (P < .001). The regret of the commission was diametrically opposite to the regret of omission (P < .001). The disease-specific threshold mortality at which upfront surgery is favored over the neoadjuvant therapy progressively decreased from the low-risk to the high-risk scenarios (P <=.001). The nonsurgeons working in or with lower surgical volume centers (P = .010) and surgeons (P = .018) accepted higher disease-specific mortality after upfront surgery, which resulted in the lower likelihood of adopting neoadjuvant therapy.Conclusion: Regret drives decision making in the management of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Being a surgeon or a specialist working in surgical centers with lower patient volumes reduces the likelihood of recommending neoadjuvant therapy.(c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

From a philosophical framework to a valid prognostic staging system of the new \u201ccomprehensive assessment\u201d for transplantable hepatocellular carcinoma

The comprehensive assessment of the transplantable tumor (TT) proposed and included in the last Italian consensus meeting still deserve validation. All consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) listed for liver transplant (LT) between January 2005 and December 2015 were post-hoc classified by the tumor/patient stage as assessed at the last re-staging-time (ReS-time) before LT as follow: high-risk-class (HRC) = stages TTDR, TTPR; intermediate-risk-class (IRC) = TT0NT, TTFR, TTUT; low-risk-class (LRC) = TT1, TT0L, TT0C. Of 376 candidates, 330 received LT and 46 dropped-out. Transplanted patients were: HRC for 159 (48.2%); IRC for 63 (19.0%); LRC for 108 (32.7%). Cumulative incidence function (CIF) of tumor recurrence after LT was 21%, 12%, and 8% at 5-years and 27%, 15%, and 12% at 10-years respectively for HRC, IRC, and LRC (P = 0.011). IRC patients had significantly lower CIF of recurrence after LT if transplanted >2-months from ReS-time (28% vs. 3% for <2 and >2 months, P = 0.031). HRC patients had significantly lower CIF of recurrence after-LT if transplanted <2 months from the ReS-time (10% vs. 33% for <2 and >2 months, P = 0.006). The proposed TT staging system can adequately describe the post-LT recurrence, especially in the LRC and HRC patients. The intermediate-risk-class needs to be better defined and further studies on its ability in defining intention-to-treat survival (ITT) and drop-out are required

Profile of lenvatinib in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: design, development, potential place in therapy and network meta-analysis of hepatitis B and hepatitis C in all Phase III trials

Purpose: Sorafenib is the only approved drug in first-line treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma. Recently, the Phase III REFLECT trial proved lenvatinib not inferior to sorafenib, potentially establishing a new standard of care in this setting. The study showed that both have similar overall survivals, yet with longer time to progression for lenvatinib. Currently, the selection of one or other is not based on clinical or biological parameters for this reason we performed a network meta-analysis and we also analyzed the REFLECT trial and its implications in the current and future clinical practice. Materials and methods: We performed the meta-analysis according to the Prisma statement recommendations. HR was the measure of association for time to progression and overall survival. The pooled analysis of HR was performed using a random effect model, fixing a 5% error as index of statistical significance. Results: For HBV-positive patients, there was a clear trend in favor of lenvatinib over sorafenib (HR 0.82 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.60\u20131.15). For HCV-positive no differences between lenvatinib and sorafenib were observed (HR 0.91 95% CrI 0.41\u20132.01). The data showed that lenvatinib could be the best drug for HBV-positive patients in 59% of cases compared to only 1% of patients treated with sorafenib. Conclusion: The identification of clinical or biological markers that could predict response or resistance to treatments is needed to guide treatment decision. This network meta-analysis demonstrates that the etiology is a good candidate and this result should be validated in a specific trial.Purpose: Sorafenib is the only approved drug in first-line treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma. Recently, the Phase III REFLECT trial proved lenvatinib not inferior to sorafenib, potentially establishing a new standard of care in this setting. The study showed that both have similar overall survivals, yet with longer time to progression for lenvatinib. Currently, the selection of one or other is not based on clinical or biological parameters for this reason we performed a network meta-analysis and we also analyzed the REFLECT trial and its implications in the current and future clinical practice.Materials and methods: We performed the meta-analysis according to the Prisma statement recommendations. HR was the measure of association for time to progression and overall survival. The pooled analysis of HR was performed using a random effect model, fixing a 5% error as index of statistical significance.Results: For HBV-positive patients, there was a clear trend in favor of lenvatinib over sorafenib (HR 0.82 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.60-1.15). For HCV-positive no differences between lenvatinib and sorafenib were observed (HR 0.91 95% CrI 0.41-2.01). The data showed that lenvatinib could be the best drug for HBV-positive patients in 59% of cases compared to only 1% of patients treated with sorafenib.Conclusion: The identification of clinical or biological markers that could predict response or resistance to treatments is needed to guide treatment decision. This network meta-analysis demonstrates that the etiology is a good candidate and this result should be validated in a specific trial

European' health care indicators and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality: A mediation analysis of Eurostat data and Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AimTo highlight correlations existing between incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, and health care indicators in 36 European countries.MethodsThe Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and Eurostat databases were queried between 2004 and 2019. Incidence and mortality were age-standardized. From Eurostat, indicators regarding expenditure, hospital beds, medical technology, health personnel, physicians by medical specialty and unmet needs for medical examination were extracted. Correlations between GBD and Eurostat data were analysed through mediation analysis applying clustering for countries.ResultsIncidence increased by +0.6% per year (p = 0.001) and mortality by +0.3% (p = 0.001), being increasing for most of the European countries considered. Incidence and mortality were strongly positively correlated (p = 0.001). Higher current health expenditure, expenditure in inpatient curative care, the number of available beds, the number of computed tomography scan, magnetic resonance units, practising medical doctors were all related to higher incidence (p ConclusionsHealth care environment correlates with reported incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer. This highlights both that ameliorated socio-economic societies suffer from higher incidence but lower mortality, as well as the epidemiological bias originating from countries' diagnostic ability

Utility of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio to identify long-term survivors among HCC patients treated with sorafenib

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Role of SIRT-3, p-mTOR and HIF-1\u3b1 in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Affected by Metabolic Dysfunctions and in Chronic Treatment with Metformin

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma deriving from metabolic dysfunctions has increased in the last years. Sirtuin- (SIRT-3), phospho-mammalian target of rapamycin (p-mTOR) and hypoxia-inducible factor- (HIF-1\u3b1) are involved in metabolism and cancer. However, their role in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) metabolism, drug resistance and progression remains unclear. This study aimed to better clarify the biological and clinical function of these markers in HCC patients, in relation to the presence of metabolic alterations, metformin therapy and clinical outcome. A total of 70 HCC patients were enrolled: 48 and 22 of whom were in early stage and advanced stage, respectively. The expression levels of the three markers were assessed by immunohistochemistry and summarized using descriptive statistics. SIRT-3 expression was higher in diabetic than non-diabetic patients, and in metformin-treated than insulin-treated patients. Interestingly, p-mTOR was higher in patients with metabolic syndrome than those with different etiology, and, similar to SIRT-3, in metformin-treated than insulin-treated patients. Moreover, our results describe a slight, albeit not significant, benefit of high SIRT-3 and a significant benefit of high nuclear HIF-1\u3b1 expression in early-stage patients, whereas high levels of p-mTOR correlated with worse prognosis in advanced-stage patients. Our study highlighted the involvement of SIRT-3 and p-mTOR in metabolic dysfunctions that occur in HCC patients, and suggested SIRT-3 and HIF-1\u3b1 as predictors of prognosis in early-stage HCC patients, and p-mTOR as target for the treatment of advanced-stage HCC

ANGPT2 and NOS3 Polymorphisms and Clinical Outcome in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Receiving Sorafenib

Sorafenib represents the standard of care for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even though a large number of patients have reported limited ecacy. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of single-nucleotide polymorphisms on angiopoietin-2 (ANGPT2) and endothelial-derived nitric oxide synthase (NOS3) genes in 135 patients with advanced HCC receiving sorafenib. Eight ANGPT2 polymorphisms were analyzed by direct sequencing in relation to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). In univariate analysis, ANGPT2rs55633437 and NOS3 rs2070744 were associated with OS and PFS. In particular, patients with ANGPT2rs55633437 TT/GT genotypes had significantly lower median OS (4.66 vs. 15.5 months, hazard ratio (HR) 4.86, 95% CI 2.73\u20138.67, p < 0.001) and PFS (1.58 vs. 6.27 months, HR 4.79, 95% CI 2.73\u20138.35, p < 0.001) than those homozygous for the G allele. Moreover, patients with NOS3 rs2070744 TC/CC genotypes had significantly higher median OS (15.6 vs. 9.1 months, HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.44\u20130.97; p = 0.036) and PFS (7.03 vs. 3.5 months, HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.30\u20130.63; p < 0.001) than patients homozygous for the T allele. Multivariate analysis confirmed these polymorphisms as independent prognostic factors. Our results suggest that ANGPT2rs55633437 and NOS3 rs2070744 polymorphisms could identify a subset of HCC patients more resistant to sorafenib

Validation and refinement of PROSASH model using the neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio in patients with HCC receiving sorafenib

AbstractThe recently developed PROSASH model is proving to be a useful tool in risk‐group discrimination in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with sorafenib. Several studies highlighted that the neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is one of the most important predictors of survival in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. The aims of the present study were to validate the PROSASH model and determine whether the incorporation of inflammatory markers can improve risk stratification. This study included 438 patients. According to the four categories of the PROSASH model, median overall survival (OS) was 20.0, 14.9, 8.5 and 3.0 months respectively (P < .001). The Harrell's c for this categorized model was 0.621. NLR (cut‐off 3) stratified OS in each of the PROSASH categories. After reclassification, median OS was 21.0, 15.1, 8.2 and 4.1 months (P < .001). The Harrell's c increased from 0.621 to 0.673 (P = .001). Integrating NLR into the PROSASH model allowed a more accurate classification of the patients in the risk groups

Years of life that could be saved from prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) causes premature death and loss of life expectancy worldwide. Its primary and secondary prevention can result in a significant number of years of life saved. AIM: To assess how many years of life are lost after HCC diagnosis. METHODS: Data from 5346 patients with first HCC diagnosis were used to estimate lifespan and number of years of life lost after tumour onset, using a semi-parametric extrapolation having as reference an age-, sex- and year-of-onset-matched population derived from national life tables. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2014, HCC lead to an average of 11.5 years-of-life lost for each patient. The youngest age-quartile group (18-61 years) had the highest number of years-of-life lost, representing approximately 41% of the overall benefit obtainable from prevention. Advancements in HCC management have progressively reduced the number of years-of-life lost from 12.6 years in 1986-1999, to 10.7 in 2000-2006 and 7.4 years in 2007-2014. Currently, an HCC diagnosis when a single tumour <2 cm results in 3.7 years-of-life lost while the diagnosis when a single tumour 65 2 cm or 2/3 nodules still within the Milan criteria, results in 5.0 years-of-life lost, representing the loss of only approximately 5.5% and 7.2%, respectively, of the entire lifespan from birth. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence results in the loss of a considerable number of years-of-life, especially for younger patients. In recent years, the increased possibility of effectively treating this tumour has improved life expectancy, thus reducing years-of-life lost

Direct-acting antivirals and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C: A few lights and many shadows

With the introduction of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA), the rate of sustained virological response (SVR) in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) has radically improved to over 95%. Robust scientific evidence supports a beneficial role of SVR after interferon therapy in the progression of cirrhosis, resulting in a decreased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, a debate on the impact of DAAs on the development of HCC is ongoing. This review aimed to analyse the scientific literature regarding the risk of HCC in terms of its recurrence and occurrence after the use of DAAs to eradicate HCV infection. Among 11 studies examining HCC occurrence, the de novo incidence rate ranged from 0 to 7.4% (maximum follow-up: 18 mo). Among 18 studies regarding HCC recurrence, the rate ranged from 0 to 54.4% (maximum "not well-defined" followup: 32 mo). This review highlights the major difficulties in interpreting data and reconciling the results of the included studies. These difficulties include heterogeneous cohorts, potential misclassifications of HCC prior to DAA therapy, the absence of an adequate control group, short follow-up times and different kinds of follow-up. Moreover, no clinical feature-based scoring system accounts for the molecular characteristics and pathobiology of the tumours. Nonetheless, this review does not suggest that there is a higher rate of de novo HCC occurrence or recurrence after DAA therapy in patients with previous HCV infection. \ua9 2018 The Author(s). Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved