Explanation and Quasi-Miracles in Narrative Understanding: The Case of Poetic Justice

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Craig Bourne, and Emily Caddick Bourne, ‘Explanation and Quasi‐miracles in Narrative Understanding: The Case of Poetic Justice’, Dialectica, Vol. 71 (4): 563-579, January 2018, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-8361.12201. Under embargo until 29 January 2020. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.David Lewis introduced the idea of a quasi-miracle to overcome a problem in his initial account of counterfactuals. Here we put the notion of a quasi-miracle to a different and new use, showing that it offers a novel account of the phenomenon of poetic justice, where characters in a narrative get their due by happy accident (for example, when the murderer of King Mitys happens to be crushed by a falling statue of Mitys). The key to understanding poetic justice is to see what makes poetically just events remarkable coincidences. We argue that remarkable coincidence is to be understood in terms of a distinctive type of experience quasi-miracles offer. Cases of poetic justice offer a dual awareness of the accidental nature of the events and of a non-accidental process, involving intention, which it appears would explain them. We also extend this account to incorporate how we might experience magic tricks. An account of poetic justice as quasi-miraculous allows us to account for the experience of encounters with poetic justice, as involving the incongruity of seeing design in accident.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Cold Model Investigations of a High Temperature Looping Process in a Dual Circulating Fluidized Bed System

The Calcium Looping process is a promising post-combustion CO2 capture technology. A 200 kWth Dual Circulating Fluidized Bed has been built at IFK, University of Stuttgart. Tests were carried out on a hydrodynamically scaled cold model. Operating parameters have been varied, while the suitability of the 200 kWth design has been prove

Slim Epistemology with a Thick Skin

The distinction between ‘thick’ and ‘thin’ value concepts, and its importance to ethical theory, has been an active topic in recent meta-ethics. This paper defends three claims regarding the parallel issue about thick and thin epistemic concepts. (1) Analogy with ethics offers no straightforward way to establish a good, clear distinction between thick and thin epistemic concepts. (2) Assuming there is such a distinction, there are no semantic grounds for assigning thick epistemic concepts priority over the thin. (3) Nor does the structure of substantive epistemological theory establish that thick epistemic concepts enjoy systematic theoretical priority over the thin. In sum, a good case has yet to be made for any radical theoretical turn to thicker epistemology

Applying Machine Learning to Neutron-Gamma Ray Discrimination from Scintillator Readout Using Wavelength Shifting Fibers

Advances in machine learning have found wide applications including radiation detection. In this work, machine learning is applied to neutron-gamma ray discrimination of an organic liquid scintillator (OLS) readout using wavelength shifting (WLS) fibers. The objective of using WLS fiber is to enable the transfer of the light signal from the scintillation medium, with almost any active volume geometry, to a low-profile photomultiplier. This is a common practice in high-energy physics research and has proven to be very effective for such applications. The drawback of this approach is the light pulses carried to the photomultiplier through the WLS fibers do not perfectly replicate the original OLS light pulses’ intensities or timing. This drawback causes traditional pulse shape discrimination algorithms applied to the degraded light pulses to fail to discriminate between neutron and gamma ray events. However, differences in the degraded light pulses for neutrons and gamma rays still exist and various machine learning algorithms can be applied to identify these differences. An experimental system was constructed to simultaneously capture part of the scintillation medium signal and the corresponding signal through the WLS fibers. Using the known neutron-gamma ray discrimination characteristics directly measured in the scintillation medium to provide the ground truth, supervised machine learning algorithms were applied to the corresponding light pulses carried to the photomultiplier through the WLS fibers. The results indicate that this approach will enable enhanced recovery of neutron-gamma ray discrimination information. This research effort will focus on two aspects of the OLS-WLS system: 1) developing an experimental system to create machine learning training data and 2) applying and evaluating various machine learning algorithms

Optimizing investments in national-scale forest landscape restoration in Uganda to maximize multiple benefits

Forest loss and degradation globally has resulted in declines in multiple ecosystem services and reduced habitat for biodiversity. Forest landscape restoration offers an opportunity to mitigate these losses, conserve biodiversity, and improve human well-being. As part of the Bonn Challenge, a global effort to restore 350 million hectares of deforested and degraded land by 2030, over 30 countries have recently made commitments to national forest landscape restoration. In order to achieve these goals, decision-makers require information on the potential benefits and costs of forest landscape restoration to efficiently target investments. In response to this need, we developed an approach using a suite of ecosystem service mapping tools and a multi-objective spatial optimization technique that enables decision-makers to estimate the potential benefits and opportunity costs of restoration, visualize tradeoffs associated with meeting multiple objectives, and prioritize where restoration could deliver the greatest benefits.Wedemonstrate the potential of this approach in Uganda, one of the nations committed to the Bonn Challenge. Using maps of the potential benefits and costs of restoration and efficiency frontiers for optimal restoration scenarios, we were able to communicate how ecosystem services benefits vary spatially across the country and how different weights on ecosystem services objectives can affect the allocation of restoration across Uganda. This work provides a generalizable approach to improve investments in forest landscape restoration and illuminates the tradeoffs associated with alternative restoration strategies.UKAid from the UK government through the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s KnowFor program as well as by the Natural Capital Project, a partnership between the University of Minnesota, Stanford University, the World Wildlife Fund, and the Nature Conservancy. MG was supported by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 98889).http://http://iopscience.iop.org1748-9326am2017Plant Scienc

Skepticism: Impractical, therefore implausible

The truth of skepticism would be depressing and impractical. Our beliefs would be groundless, we would know nothing (or almost nothing) about the world around us, and epistemic success would likely be impossible. But do these negative consequences have any bearing on the truth of skepticism? According to many scholars, they do not. The impractical consequences of skepticism are typically regarded as orthogonal to its truth. For this reason, pragmatic resolutions to skepticism are regularly dismissed. I will argue, however, that skepticism is implausible because it is impractical. In particular, skepticism is implausible because it goes against the point of epistemic evaluation

EXACT: EXercise or Advice after ankle fraCTure. Design of a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ankle fractures are common. Management of ankle fractures generally involves a period of immobilisation followed by rehabilitation to reduce pain, stiffness, weakness and swelling. The effects of a rehabilitation program are still unclear. However, it has been shown that important components of rehabilitation programs may not confer additional benefits over exercise alone. The primary aim of this trial is to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an exercise-based rehabilitation program after ankle fracture, compared to advice alone.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A pragmatic randomised trial will be conducted. Participants will be 342 adults with stiff, painful ankles after ankle fracture treated with immobilisation. They will be randomly allocated using a concealed randomisation procedure to either an <it>Advice </it>or <it>Rehabilitation </it>group. Participants in the <it>Advice </it>group will receive verbal and written advice about exercise at the time of removal of immobilisation. Participants in the <it>Rehabilitation </it>group will be provided with a 4-week rehabilitation program that is designed, monitored and progressed by a physiotherapist, in addition to verbal and written advice. Outcomes will be measured by a blinded assessor at 1, 3 and 6 months. The primary outcomes will be activity limitation and quality-adjusted life years.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This pragmatic trial will determine if a rehabilitation program reduces activity limitation and improves quality of life, compared to advice alone, after immobilisation for ankle fracture.</p

A mixed methods study to evaluate the feasibility of using the Adolescent Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool App in paediatric diabetes care in preparation for a longitudinal cohort study

An evaluation study was carried out to determine the feasibility of integrating the Adolescent Diabetes Needs Assessment Tool (ADNAT) App into UK paediatric diabetes care, to ascertain best practice standards and to determine methodological recommendations for a future cohort study. Methods A non-randomised, cohort, mixed methods study design was used to ensure equality of access to ADNAT for all participants at three sites in the North West of England. Following UK Medical Research Council guidance, the RE-AIM (reach, effectiveness (potential and perceived), adoption, implementation, maintenance) framework was used to guide study objectives and feasibility outcomes. Patients who completed ADNAT (completers) were compared with those who failed to complete (non-completers). Patients’ glycaemic control (HbA1c) was accessed from their clinical data at baseline and at 6 months, alongside their ADNAT scores which were correlated with changes in HbA1c levels. The diabetes teams (respondents) completed a web-based survey and attended focus group interviews. Results Eighty-nine patients were recruited. Withdrawal rates were low at 4.5% (n = 4). Forty-four patients (49.4%) completed ADNAT, leaving 45 (50.6%) non-completers. There were large baseline differences in HbA1c and variable rates of change at 6 months. After adjusting for baseline HbA1C and site in an analysis of covariance, completers had a lower post-ADNAT mean HbA1C level than non-completers at 6 months (-5.42 mmol/mol, 95% CI −11.48, 0.64). Patients’ glycaemic control (HbA1c) at 6 months correlated reasonably well with their ADNAT scores (Spearman’s rho = 0.46). Survey and focus group data showed that ADNAT was judged to be an effective clinical tool by the diabetes teams. Value to patients was perceived by the teams to be linked to parental support, age and previous diabetes education. The combined data triangulated. It served to capture different dimensions which were used to define changes to achieve practice standards and methodological recommendations. Conclusions The combined data showed that ADNAT has the potential to be a clinically viable tool. It has demonstrated the need for a randomised design that is tailored for a ‘hard to reach’ adolescent population. A cluster randomised controlled trial that involves sequential but random rollout of ADNAT over multiple time periods may be the most appropriate and is currently being considered for the larger study