Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects.

This work develops the gradient test for parameter selection in generalised linear models with random effects. Asymptotically, the test statistic has a chi-squared distribution and the statistic has a compelling feature: it does not require computation of the Fisher information matrix. Performance of the test is verified through Monte Carlo simulations of size and power, and also compared to the likelihood ratio, Wald and Rao tests. The gradient test provides the best results overall when compared to the traditional tests, especially for smaller sample sizes

Father absence and age at first birth in a western sample

Objectives: Although a large literature has shown links between “father absence” during early childhood, and earlier puberty and sexual behavior in girls in Western populations, there are only a few studies which have looked at timing of reproduction, and only one of these fully incorporated childless respondents to investigate whether father absence is associated with increased hazard of becoming a parent at one time point (early) more than another. Here we sought to clarify exactly when, if at all, father absence increased the likelihood of first birth in a Western sample. Methods: An online sample of 954 women reported on their childhood living circumstances, their age of menarche, first coitus, first pregnancy, and first birth. Results: Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier plots showed an increased risk of becoming a parent for father absent women in their 20s, but no overall greater likelihood of parenthood. Conclusion: These data support the suggestion that father absence is associated with an acceleration of reproductive behavior in Western samples, rather than a simple increase in likelihood of reproduction

A spectroscopic and thermal investigation into the relationship between composition, secondary structure and physical characteristics of electrospun zein nanofibers

Electrospun zein nanofibers have attracted interest as drug delivery systems due to their propensity for controlled drug release, flexible structure and low toxicity. However, comparatively little is known regarding the relationship between production method and fiber characteristics, both in terms of fiber architecture and protein structure. Here we use a range of imaging and spectroscopic techniques to elucidate the effects of solvent composition on zein secondary structure, fiber diameter and fiber integrity, plus we utilize the new technique of transition temperature microscopy to examine the thermal properties of the fibers. Zein nanofibers were prepared using ethanol, acetic acid and water mixes as solvents, alone and with plasticizers (polyethylene glycol, glycerol) and casein. Electrospinning was performed under controlled conditions and the products characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), attenuated total reflection Fourier Transform infrared spectrometry (ATR - FTIR) and transition temperature microscopy (TTM). The choice of solvent, concentration and voltage, alongside the presence of additives (plasticizers and casein) were noted to influence both the diameter of the fibers and the tendency for bead formation. A relationship was noted between protein secondary structure and fiber architecture, with an enhanced β-sheet content, enhanced by the inclusion of casein, being associated with higher beading. In addition, thermal imaging of electrospun zein fiber mats was successfully achieved using TTM via two dimensional mapping of the softening temperatures across the spun samples, in particular demonstrating the plasticizing effects of the polyethylene glycol and glycerol

Gradient test for generalised linear models with random effects

This work develops the gradient test for parameter selection in generalised linear models with random effects. Asymptotically, the test statistic has a chi-squared distribution and the statistic has a compelling feature: it does not require computation of the Fisher information matrix. Performance of the test is verified through Monte Carlo simulations of size and power, and also compared to the likelihood ratio, Wald and Rao tests. The gradient test provides the best results overall when compared to the traditional tests, especially for smaller sample sizes

Spatial variation in the sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors

Assessing spatial variation in the chemical sensitivity of natural assemblages will enhance ecological relevance and reduce uncertainty in ecological risk assessments and the derivation of environmental quality standards (EQSs). However, the majority of species in natural communities have not undergone toxicity testing for any chemical, which poses a major challenge when assessing their sensitivity. We investigated spatial variation and patterns in the sensitivity of 4084 freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages across England to 5 general-acting chemicals (heavy metals) and 13 specifically acting chemicals (insecticides) using a novel hierarchical species sensitivity distribution method based on taxonomic relatedness. Furthermore, we explored how river typology relates to spatial variation in assemblage sensitivity to chemicals and the potential impacts of such variation on current EQSs. Our findings revealed that, whereas assemblages with similar taxonomic compositions exhibit comparable sensitivity distributions, assemblages with different taxonomic compositions could have very similar or very different sensitivity distributions. The variation in assemblage sensitivity was greater for specifically acting chemicals than for general-acting chemicals and exhibited spatial clustering patterns. These spatial clustering patterns varied depending on the chemical, and the regions where assemblages were most sensitive to metals were generally not the same as the regions where assemblages were most sensitive to insecticides. Spatial variation in assemblage sensitivity was related to river typology with sensitive assemblages being more common than expected in lowland calcareous (or mixed geology) rivers within very small to small catchments. Comparing spatial variation in assemblage-specific chemical sensitivity to EQSs, we found that the operational EQSs in England would protect most study assemblages (i.e., > 99.5 %), although a small proportion of assemblages may face potential risks associated with azinphos-methyl, copper, and malathion. In many cases the EQSs were very precautionary, potentially requiring expensive control measures or restricting beneficial chemical use with no additional environmental benefit. The development of spatially defined EQSs, possibly based on river types, could be developed to target areas that require the highest level of protection and thus strike a balance between the benefits of chemical use and environmental protection

Charnel practices in medieval England: new perspectives

Studies of English medieval funerary practice have paid limited attention to the curation of human remains in charnel houses. Yet analysis of architectural, archaeological and documentary evidence, including antiquarian accounts, suggests that charnelling was more widespread in medieval England than has hitherto been appreciated, with many charnel houses dismantled at the sixteenth-century Reformation. The survival of a charnel house and its human remains at Rothwell, Northamptonshire permits a unique opportunity to analyse charnel practice at a medieval parish church. Employing architectural, geophysical and osteological analysis, we present a new contextualisation of medieval charnelling. We argue that the charnel house at Rothwell, a subterranean room constructed during the thirteenth century, may have been a particularly sophisticated example of an experiment born out of beliefs surrounding Purgatory. Our approach enables re-evaluation of the surviving evidence for charnel practice in England and enhances wider narratives of medieval charnelling across Europe

A multi-resolution, non-parametric, Bayesian framework for identification of spatially-varying model parameters

This paper proposes a hierarchical, multi-resolution framework for the identification of model parameters and their spatially variability from noisy measurements of the response or output. Such parameters are frequently encountered in PDE-based models and correspond to quantities such as density or pressure fields, elasto-plastic moduli and internal variables in solid mechanics, conductivity fields in heat diffusion problems, permeability fields in fluid flow through porous media etc. The proposed model has all the advantages of traditional Bayesian formulations such as the ability to produce measures of confidence for the inferences made and providing not only predictive estimates but also quantitative measures of the predictive uncertainty. In contrast to existing approaches it utilizes a parsimonious, non-parametric formulation that favors sparse representations and whose complexity can be determined from the data. The proposed framework in non-intrusive and makes use of a sequence of forward solvers operating at various resolutions. As a result, inexpensive, coarse solvers are used to identify the most salient features of the unknown field(s) which are subsequently enriched by invoking solvers operating at finer resolutions. This leads to significant computational savings particularly in problems involving computationally demanding forward models but also improvements in accuracy. It is based on a novel, adaptive scheme based on Sequential Monte Carlo sampling which is embarrassingly parallelizable and circumvents issues with slow mixing encountered in Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes

Review article: MHD wave propagation near coronal null points of magnetic fields

We present a comprehensive review of MHD wave behaviour in the neighbourhood of coronal null points: locations where the magnetic field, and hence the local Alfven speed, is zero. The behaviour of all three MHD wave modes, i.e. the Alfven wave and the fast and slow magnetoacoustic waves, has been investigated in the neighbourhood of 2D, 2.5D and (to a certain extent) 3D magnetic null points, for a variety of assumptions, configurations and geometries. In general, it is found that the fast magnetoacoustic wave behaviour is dictated by the Alfven-speed profile. In a $\beta=0$ plasma, the fast wave is focused towards the null point by a refraction effect and all the wave energy, and thus current density, accumulates close to the null point. Thus, null points will be locations for preferential heating by fast waves. Independently, the Alfven wave is found to propagate along magnetic fieldlines and is confined to the fieldlines it is generated on. As the wave approaches the null point, it spreads out due to the diverging fieldlines. Eventually, the Alfven wave accumulates along the separatrices (in 2D) or along the spine or fan-plane (in 3D). Hence, Alfven wave energy will be preferentially dissipated at these locations. It is clear that the magnetic field plays a fundamental role in the propagation and properties of MHD waves in the neighbourhood of coronal null points. This topic is a fundamental plasma process and results so far have also lead to critical insights into reconnection, mode-coupling, quasi-periodic pulsations and phase-mixing.Comment: 34 pages, 5 figures, invited review in Space Science Reviews => Note this is a 2011 paper, not a 2010 pape

Particle Dark Matter Constraints from the Draco Dwarf Galaxy

It is widely thought that neutralinos, the lightest supersymmetric particles, could comprise most of the dark matter. If so, then dark halos will emit radio and gamma ray signals initiated by neutralino annihilation. A particularly promising place to look for these indicators is at the center of the local group dwarf spheroidal galaxy Draco, and recent measurements of the motion of its stars have revealed it to be an even better target for dark matter detection than previously thought. We compute limits on WIMP properties for various models of Draco's dark matter halo. We find that if the halo is nearly isothermal, as the new measurements indicate, then current gamma ray flux limits prohibit much of the neutralino parameter space. If Draco has a moderate magnetic field, then current radio limits can rule out more of it. These results are appreciably stronger than other current constraints, and so acquiring more detailed data on Draco's density profile becomes one of the most promising avenues for identifying dark matter.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

Alcohol consumption after health deterioration in older adults: a mixed-methods study

Objective To examine if and how older adults modify their drinking after health deterioration, and the factors that motivate changing or maintaining stable drinking behaviour. Study design Explanatory follow-up mixed-methods research. Methods The association between health deterioration and changes in alcohol consumption was examined using secondary data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a biennial prospective cohort study of a random sample of adults aged 50 years and older living in England. Data were collected through a personal interview and self-completion questionnaire across three waves between 2004 and 2009. The sample size (response rate) across the three waves was 8781 (49.9%), 7168 (40.3%) and 6623 (37.3%). The Chi-squared test was used to examine associations between diagnosis with a long-term condition or a worsening of self-rated health (e.g. from good to fair or fair to poor) and changes in drinking frequency (e.g. everyday, 5–6 days per week, etc.) and volume (ethanol consumed on a drinking day) between successive waves. In-depth interviews with 19 older adults recently diagnosed with a long-term condition were used to explore the factors that influenced change or maintenance in alcohol consumption over time. A purposive sampling strategy was used to recruit a diverse sample of current and former drinkers from voluntary and community organizations in the north of England. An inductive approach was used to analyze the data, facilitating the development of an a posteriori framework for understanding drinking change. Results There was no significant relationship between health deterioration and changes in drinking volume over time. There was however a significant association between health deterioration and changes in drinking frequency between successive waves (χ2 = 15.24, P < 0.001 and χ2 = 17.28, P < 0.001). For example, of participants reporting health deterioration between the first two waves, 47.6% had stable drinking frequency, 23.4% increased their drinking frequency and 29% reported decreased drinking frequency. In comparison, of participants reporting no health deterioration, 52.7% reported stable frequency, 20.8% increased frequency and 26.4% decreased frequency. In qualitative interviews, older adults described a wide range of factors that influence changes in drinking behaviour: knowledge gained from talking to healthcare professionals, online and in the media; tangible negative experiences that were attributed to drinking; mood and emotions (e.g. joy); the cost of alcohol; pub closures; and changes in social roles and activities. Health was just one part of a complex mix of factors that influenced drinking among older adults. Conclusion Patterns of drinking change after health deterioration in older adults are diverse, including stable, increasing and decreasing alcohol consumption over time. Although health motivations to change drinking influence behaviour in some older adults, social and financial motivations to drink are also important in later life and thus a holistic approach is required to influence behaviour