Investigating local population dynamics of bottlenose dolphins in the northern Bahamas and the impact of hurricanes on survival

This study was made possible with financial support from Earthwatch Institute, Atlantis Blue Project Foundation, with permission to conduct research granted by the Bahamas Department of Marine Resources.Little Bahama Bank in the northern Bahamas supports several populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). We provide the first estimates of birth rate and age-class-specific apparent survival rates for the local South Abaco population using data from a long-term (1997–2014) photo-identification (photo-ID) study and use the estimated life history parameters in a population viability analysis (PVA) to predict future population trends. Hurricane events are predicted to become more intense due to climate change but knowledge of how hurricanes may impact cetacean populations is limited. Little Bahama Bank is subject to hurricane activity, so we also investigate the potential impact of hurricanes on calf, juvenile and adult survival. Photo-ID data confirmed the existence of a core adult population with relatively high site fidelity in South Abaco, but also evidence of transient animals. Estimated annual birth rate was 0.278 (95% CI: 0.241–0.337). We found strong support for a decline in apparent survival for all age-classes. Estimated survival declined by 9% in adults (0.941 in 1998, to 0.855 in 2013), 5% in juveniles (0.820 in 2000, to 0.767 in 2013) and 36% in calves (0.970 in 1997, to 0.606 in 2013). Evidence that survival was influenced by repeated hurricane activity leading to increased mortality and/or emigration was stronger for calves and juveniles than for adults. PVA simulations of an assumed isolated South Abaco population showed that declines would lead to extinction within decades, even under the most optimistic scenario. Future work should focus on establishing if South Abaco is part of natural source–sink metapopulation dynamics on Little Bahama Bank by assessing trends in abundance in local populations and establishing how they interact; this will be important for assessing their conservation status in a potentially increasingly changing environment.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Backyard poultry cases in UK small animal practices: Demographics, health conditions and pharmaceutical prescriptions

Background: Backyard poultry ownership is of keen interest in the United Kingdom. However, despite this, little is known about veterinary care engagement and outcomes of visits in this group of species. Methods: This study described and characterised veterinary practice‐visiting backyard poultry, utilising electronic health record data supplied by veterinary practices voluntarily participating in the Small Animal Veterinary Surveillance Network between 1st April 2014 and 31st March 2019. Results: In total, 4424 recorded poultry consultations originating from 197 veterinary practices (352 sites) were summarised. Chicken consultation (n = 3740) peak incidence was in early summer (April‐June), relative to all recorded species. More chickens resided in rural (incident rate ratio = 2.5, confidence interval [CI] 2.3–2.6, p <0.001) or less deprived areas. Non‐specific clinical signs were commonly recorded (17.6% of chicken consultations, CI 15.9–19.2), as were those indicative of advanced disease. This latter finding was reflected in prescribed management strategies, with euthanasia comprising 29.8% (CI 27.0–32.6) of consultations. Antimicrobials were commonly prescribed (33.0% of consultations, CI 29.8–36.2), 43.8% of which included antimicrobials considered ‘highest priority critically important’ by the World Health Organisation. Conclusion: Our findings indicate a need to tailor antimicrobial prescription guidance to the backyard poultry setting. In addition, late presentation of disease, vague clinical descriptions in clinical narratives and high euthanasia rates show that disease identification, management and knowledge of poultry health and welfare among owners and veterinary surgeons can be improved

Vandetanib plus gemcitabine versus placebo plus gemcitabine in locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic carcinoma (ViP): a prospective, randomised, double-blind, multicentre phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Erlotinib is an EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor that has shown a significant but only marginally improved median overall survival when combined with gemcitabine in patients with locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer. Vandetanib is a novel tyrosine kinase inhibitor of VEGFR2, RET, and EGFR, all of which are in involved in the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer. We investigated the clinical efficacy of vandetanib when used in combination with gemcitabine in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. METHODS: The Vandetanib in Pancreatic Cancer (ViP) trial was a phase 2 double-blind, multicentre, randomised placebo-controlled trial in previously untreated adult patients (aged ≥18 years) diagnosed with locally advanced or metastatic carcinoma of the pancreas confirmed by cytology or histology. Patients had to have an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score of 0-2 and a documented life expectancy of at least 3 months. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive vandetanib plus gemcitabine (vandetanib group) or placebo plus gemcitabine (placebo group) according to pre-generated sequences produced on the principle of randomly permuted blocks with variable block sizes of two and four. Patients were stratified at randomisation by disease stage and ECOG performance status. All patients received gemcitabine 1000 mg/m(2) as a 30-min intravenous infusion, weekly, for 7 weeks followed by a 1-week break, followed by a cycle of 3 weeks of treatment with a 1-week break, until disease progression, and either oral vandetanib 300 mg per day once daily or matching placebo. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome measure was overall survival (defined as the difference in time between randomisation and death from any cause or the censor date) in the intention-to-treat population. This trial has been completed and the final results are reported. The study is registered at EudraCT, number 2007-004299-38, and ISRCTN, number ISRCTN96397434. FINDINGS: Patients were screened and enrolled between Oct 24, 2011, and Oct 7, 2013. Of 381 patients screened, 142 eligible patients were randomly assigned to treatment (72 to the vandetanib group and 70 to the placebo group). At database lock on July 15, 2015, at a median follow-up of 24·9 months (IQR 24·3 to not attainable), 131 patients had died: 70 (97%) of 72 in the vandetanib group and 61 (87%) of 70 in the placebo group. The median overall survival was 8·83 months (95% CI 7·11-11·58) in the vandetanib group and 8·95 months (6·55-11·74) in the placebo group (hazard ratio 1·21, 80·8% CI 0·95-1·53; log rank χ(2)1df 1·1, p=0·303). The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were neutropenia (35 [49%] of 72 patients in the vandetanib group vs 22 [31%] of 70 in the placebo group), thrombocytopenia (20 [28%] vs 16 [23%]), hypertension (nine [13%] vs 11 [16%]), leucopenia (12 [17%] vs 13 [19%]), and fatigue (17 [24%] vs 15 [21%]). No treatment-related deaths occurred during the study. INTERPRETATION: The addition of vandetanib to gemcitabine monotherapy did not improve overall survival in advanced pancreatic cancer. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors might still have potential in the treatment of pancreatic cancer but further development requires the identification of biomarkers to specifically identify responsive cancer subtypes. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK and AstraZeneca

Oral abstracts 3: RA Treatment and outcomesO13. Validation of jadas in all subtypes of juvenile idiopathic arthritis in a clinical setting

Background: Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score (JADAS) is a 4 variable composite disease activity (DA) score for JIA (including active 10, 27 or 71 joint count (AJC), physician global (PGA), parent/child global (PGE) and ESR). The validity of JADAS for all ILAR subtypes in the routine clinical setting is unknown. We investigated the construct validity of JADAS in the clinical setting in all subtypes of JIA through application to a prospective inception cohort of UK children presenting with new onset inflammatory arthritis. Methods: JADAS 10, 27 and 71 were determined for all children in the Childhood Arthritis Prospective Study (CAPS) with complete data available at baseline. Correlation of JADAS 10, 27 and 71 with single DA markers was determined for all subtypes. All correlations were calculated using Spearman's rank statistic. Results: 262/1238 visits had sufficient data for calculation of JADAS (1028 (83%) AJC, 744 (60%) PGA, 843 (68%) PGE and 459 (37%) ESR). Median age at disease onset was 6.0 years (IQR 2.6-10.4) and 64% were female. Correlation between JADAS 10, 27 and 71 approached 1 for all subtypes. Median JADAS 71 was 5.3 (IQR 2.2-10.1) with a significant difference between median JADAS scores between subtypes (p < 0.01). Correlation of JADAS 71 with each single marker of DA was moderate to high in the total cohort (see Table 1). Overall, correlation with AJC, PGA and PGE was moderate to high and correlation with ESR, limited JC, parental pain and CHAQ was low to moderate in the individual subtypes. Correlation coefficients in the extended oligoarticular, rheumatoid factor negative and enthesitis related subtypes were interpreted with caution in view of low numbers. Conclusions: This study adds to the body of evidence supporting the construct validity of JADAS. JADAS correlates with other measures of DA in all ILAR subtypes in the routine clinical setting. Given the high frequency of missing ESR data, it would be useful to assess the validity of JADAS without inclusion of the ESR. Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interest. Table 1Spearman's correlation between JADAS 71 and single markers DA by ILAR subtype ILAR Subtype Systemic onset JIA Persistent oligo JIA Extended oligo JIA Rheumatoid factor neg JIA Rheumatoid factor pos JIA Enthesitis related JIA Psoriatic JIA Undifferentiated JIA Unknown subtype Total cohort Number of children 23 111 12 57 7 9 19 7 17 262 AJC 0.54 0.67 0.53 0.75 0.53 0.34 0.59 0.81 0.37 0.59 PGA 0.63 0.69 0.25 0.73 0.14 0.05 0.50 0.83 0.56 0.64 PGE 0.51 0.68 0.83 0.61 0.41 0.69 0.71 0.9 0.48 0.61 ESR 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.4 0.6 0.85 0.43 0.7 0.5 0.53 Limited 71 JC 0.29 0.51 0.23 0.37 0.14 -0.12 0.4 0.81 0.45 0.41 Parental pain 0.23 0.62 0.03 0.57 0.41 0.69 0.7 0.79 0.42 0.53 Childhood health assessment questionnaire 0.25 0.57 -0.07 0.36 -0.47 0.84 0.37 0.8 0.66 0.4

Characteristics and Outcome of Severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia Admitted to PICU in Shanghai: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objectives:. We aimed to describe the characteristics and outcome in children with severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in a Chinese PICU. Design:. A retrospective observational study from 2017 to 2019. Setting:. A 36-bed university tertiary PICU at Shanghai Children’s Hospital. Patients:. Patients admitted to a tertiary PICU 29 days to 18 years old screened for laboratory-confirmed severe M. pneumoniae pneumonia. Interventions:. None. Measurements and Main Results:. Descriptive analysis of baseline characteristics for patients included hospital mortality, organ dysfunctions, use of mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy, and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. A total of 817 children with severe pneumonia were admitted to PICU, and 203 of 817 cases (24.8%) with severe M. pneumoniae pneumonia were included in this study. The median age was 41 months (interquartile range, 20–67 mo), of which 77.3% (157/203) were younger than 6 years old. Among 163 patients with the test for macrolide resistance, 90.2% cases (147/163) were macrolide-resistant M. pneumoniae. Severe M. pneumoniae pneumonia-associated organ dysfunction included acute respiratory failure (203 cases, 100%), followed by cardiovascular disorder (79/203, 38.9%), gastrointestinal dysfunction (24/203, 11.8%). The main complications were pleural effusion (79/203, 38.9%), capillary leak syndrome (58/203, 28.6%), and plastic bronchitis (20/203, 9.9%). All patients needed respiratory support, including 64.5% patients (131/203) who received mechanical ventilation and 35.5% patients (72/203) who received high-flow nasal oxygen. Twenty-five patients (12.3%) treated with continuous renal replacement therapy and nine cases (4.4%) received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The case fatality rate was 3.9% (8/203). Furthermore, cardiovascular dysfunction, liver injury, or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome were associated with longer mechanical ventilation duration, delayed PICU discharge, and high hospital mortality. Coinfection was a risk factor of delayed PICU discharge. Conclusions:. Children with severe M. pneumoniae pneumonia mainly occur under the age of 6 years, showing a high proportion of extrapulmonary organ dysfunction and macrolide resistances. Extrapulmonary organ dysfunction and coinfection are associated with worse outcomes. The overall mortality is relatively low after treated with appreciate antibiotics, respiratory support, and extracorporeal life support

Patterns of Recurrence After Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Secondary Analysis of the ESPAC-4 Randomized Adjuvant Chemotherapy Trial

Importance: The patterns of disease recurrence after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with adjuvant chemotherapy remain unclear. Objective: To define patterns of recurrence after adjuvant chemotherapy and the association with survival. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospectively collected data from the phase 3 European Study Group for Pancreatic Cancer 4 adjuvant clinical trial, an international multicenter study. The study included 730 patients who had resection and adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer. Data were analyzed between July 2017 and May 2019. Interventions: Randomization to adjuvant gemcitabine or gemcitabine plus capecitabine. Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival, recurrence, and sites of recurrence. Results: Of the 730 patients, median age was 65 years (range 37-81 years), 414 were men (57%), and 316 were women (43%). The median follow-up time from randomization was 43.2 months (95% CI, 39.7-45.5 months), with overall survival from time of surgery of 27.9 months (95% CI, 24.8-29.9 months) with gemcitabine and 30.2 months (95% CI, 25.8-33.5 months) with the combination (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.98; P = .03). The 5-year survival estimates were 17.1% (95% CI, 11.6%-23.5%) and 28.0% (22.0%-34.3%), respectively. Recurrence occurred in 479 patients (65.6%); another 78 patients (10.7%) died without recurrence. Local recurrence occurred at a median of 11.63 months (95% CI, 10.05-12.19 months), significantly different from those with distant recurrence with a median of 9.49 months (95% CI, 8.44-10.71 months) (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.45; P = .04). Following recurrence, the median survival was 9.36 months (95% CI, 8.08-10.48 months) for local recurrence and 8.94 months (95% CI, 7.82-11.17 months) with distant recurrence (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.73-1.09; P = .27). The median overall survival of patients with distant-only recurrence (23.03 months; 95% CI, 19.55-25.85 months) or local with distant recurrence (23.82 months; 95% CI, 17.48-28.32 months) was not significantly different from those with only local recurrence (24.83 months; 95% CI, 22.96-27.63 months) (P = .85 and P = .35, respectively). Gemcitabine plus capecitabine had a 21% reduction of death following recurrence compared with monotherapy (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64-0.98; P = .03). Conclusions and Relevance: There were no significant differences between the time to recurrence and subsequent and overall survival between local and distant recurrence. Pancreatic cancer behaves as a systemic disease requiring effective systemic therapy after resection. Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00058201, EudraCT 2007-004299-38, and ISRCTN 96397434