Land-surface parameter optimisation using data assimilation techniques: The adJULES system V1.0

This is the final version of the article. Available from the European Geosciences Union (EGU) via the DOI in this record.Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to make coupled climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. JULES is also extensively used offline as a land-surface impacts tool, forced with climatologies into the future. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated with respect to JULES parameters using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed to search for locally optimum parameters by calibrating against observations. This paper describes adJULES in a data assimilation framework and demonstrates its ability to improve the model-data fit using eddy-covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the five plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES at over 85% of the sites used in the study, at both the calibration and evaluation stages. The new improved parameters for JULES are presented along with the associated uncertainties for each parameter.This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through the National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO). This study used eddy-covariance data acquired by the FLUXNET community and in particular by the following networks: AmeriFlux (US Department of Energy, Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Carbon Program (DE-FG02-04ER63917 and DE-FG02-04ER63911)), AfriFlux, AsiaFlux, CarboAfrica, CarboEuropeIP, CarboItaly, CarboMont, ChinaFlux, Fluxnet-Canada (supported by CFCAS, NSERC, BIOCAP, Environment Canada, and NRCan), GreenGrass, KoFlux, LBA, NECC, OzFlux, TCOSSiberia, USCCC. Support for eddy-covariance data harmonisation was provided by CarboEuropeIP, FAO-GTOS-TCO, iLEAPS, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, National Science Foundation, University of Tuscia, Université Laval and Environment Canada and US Department of Energy and the database development and technical support from Berkeley Water Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Microsoft Research eScience, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of California – Berkeley, University of Virginia. The authors are grateful to T. Kaminski and R. Giering from FastOpt for their contribution to the development of the adjoint model, and to M. Groenendijk, A. Harper, and the UK Met Office for processing and sharing their data. The authors are particularly grateful to two anonymous referees for their thoughtful and constructive reviews, which greatly improved this manuscript

Multiple reassortment events in the evolutionary history of H1N1 influenza A virus since 1918

The H1N1 subtype of influenza A virus has caused substantial morbidity and mortality in humans, first documented in the global pandemic of 1918 and continuing to the present day. Despite this disease burden, the evolutionary history of the A/H1N1 virus is not well understood, particularly whether there is a virological basis for several notable epidemics of unusual severity in the 1940s and 1950s. Using a data set of 71 representative complete genome sequences sampled between 1918 and 2006, we show that segmental reassortment has played an important role in the genomic evolution of A/H1N1 since 1918. Specifically, we demonstrate that an A/H1N1 isolate from the 1947 epidemic acquired novel PB2 and HA genes through intra-subtype reassortment, which may explain the abrupt antigenic evolution of this virus. Similarly, the 1951 influenza epidemic may also have been associated with reassortant A/H1N1 viruses. Intra-subtype reassortment therefore appears to be a more important process in the evolution and epidemiology of H1N1 influenza A virus than previously realized

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Which circulating antioxidant vitamins are confounded by socioeconomic deprivation? The MIDSPAN family study

<p><b>Background:</b> Antioxidant vitamins are often described as having “independent” associations with risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. We aimed to compare to what extent a range of antioxidant vitamins and carotenoids are associated with adulthood and childhood markers of socioeconomic deprivation and to adverse lifestyle factors.</p> <p><b>Methods and Findings:</b> Socioeconomic and lifestyle measures were available in 1040 men and 1298 women from the MIDSPAN Family Study (30–59 years at baseline) together with circulating levels of vitamins A, C, E, and carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein and lycopene). Markers of socioeconomic deprivation in adulthood were consistently as strongly associated with lower vitamin C and carotenoid levels as markers of adverse lifestyle; the inverse association with overcrowding was particularly consistent (vitamin C and carotenoids range from 19.1% [95% CI 30.3–6.0] to 38.8% [49.9–25.3] lower among those in overcrowded residencies). These associations were consistent after adjusting for month, classical CVD risk factors, body mass index, physical activity, vitamin supplements, dietary fat and fibre intake. Similar, but weaker, associations were seen for childhood markers of deprivation. The association of vitamin A or E were strikingly different; several adult adverse lifestyle factors associated with higher levels of vitamin A and E, including high alcohol intake for vitamin A (9.5% [5.7–13.5]) and waist hip ratio for vitamin E (9.5% [4.8–14.4]), with the latter associations partially explained by classical risk factors, particularly cholesterol levels.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Plasma vitamin C and carotenoids have strong inverse associations with adulthood markers of social deprivation, whereas vitamin A and E appear positively related to specific adverse lifestyle factors. These findings should help researchers better contextualize blood antioxidant vitamin levels by illustrating the potential limitations associated with making causal inferences without consideration of social deprivation.</p&gt

Evaluating the Combined Effectiveness of Influenza Control Strategies and Human Preventive Behavior

Control strategies enforced by health agencies are a major type of practice to contain influenza outbreaks. Another type of practice is the voluntary preventive behavior of individuals, such as receiving vaccination, taking antiviral drugs, and wearing face masks. These two types of practices take effects concurrently in influenza containment, but little attention has been paid to their combined effectiveness. This article estimates this combined effectiveness using established simulation models in the urbanized area of Buffalo, NY, USA. Three control strategies are investigated, including: Targeted Antiviral Prophylaxis (TAP), workplace/school closure, community travel restriction, as well as the combination of the three. All control strategies are simulated with and without regard to individual preventive behavior, and the resulting effectiveness are compared. The simulation outcomes suggest that weaker control strategies could suffice to contain influenza epidemics, because individuals voluntarily adopt preventive behavior, rendering these weaker strategies more effective than would otherwise have been expected. The preventive behavior of individuals could save medical resources for control strategies and avoid unnecessary socio-economic interruptions. This research adds a human behavioral dimension into the simulation of control strategies and offers new insights into disease containment. Health policy makers are recommended to review current control strategies and comprehend preventive behavior patterns of local populations before making decisions on influenza containment

International criteria for acute kidney injury: advantages and remaining challenges

• Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is defined using widely accepted international criteria that are based on changes in serum creatinine concentration and degree of oliguria. • AKI, when defined in this way, has a strong association with poor patient outcomes, including high mortality rates and longer hospital admissions with increased resource utilisation and subsequent chronic kidney disease. • The detection of AKI using current criteria can assist with AKI diagnosis and stratification of individual patient risk. • The diagnosis of AKI requires clinical judgement to integrate the definition of AKI with the clinical situation, to determine underlying cause of AKI, and to take account of factors that may affect performance of current definitions

A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity

Background: The clinical attack rate of influenza is influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult to directly estimate R0 from the attack rate, contributing to uncertainty in epidemiological models to guide pandemic planning. We have modelled multiple wave outbreaks of influenza from different populations to allow for changing immunity and asymptomatic infection and to make inferences about R0. \ud \ud Data and Methods. On the island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC), 96% of residents reported illness during an H3N2 outbreak in 1971, compared with only 25% of RAF personnel in military camps during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used to estimate model parameter distributions. \ud \ud Findings. We estimated that most islanders on TdC were non-immune (susceptible) before the first wave, and that almost all exposures of susceptible persons caused symptoms. The median R0 of 6.4 (95% credibility interval 3.7–10.7) implied that most islanders were exposed twice, although only a minority became ill in the second wave because of temporary protection following the first wave. In contrast, only 51% of RAF personnel were susceptible before the first wave, and only 38% of exposed susceptibles reported symptoms. R0 in this population was also lower [2.9 (2.3–4.3)], suggesting reduced viral transmission in a partially immune population. \ud \ud Interpretation: Our model implies that the RAF population was partially protected before the summer pandemic wave of 1918, arguably because of prior exposure to interpandemic influenza. Without such protection, each symptomatic case of influenza would transmit to between 2 and 10 new cases, with incidence initially doubling every 1–2 days. Containment of a novel virus could be more difficult than hitherto supposed

Anti-Inflammatory Cytokines Predominate in Acute Human Plasmodium knowlesi Infections

Plasmodium knowlesi has entered the human population of Southeast Asia. Naturally acquired knowlesi malaria is newly described with relatively little available data, including data on the host response to infection. Therefore pre-treatment cytokine and chemokine profiles were determined for 94 P. knowlesi, and for comparison, 20, P. vivax and 22 P. falciparum, patients recruited in Malaysian Borneo. Nine, five and one patient with P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively had complicated malaria as defined by World Health Organisation. Patients with uncomplicated P. knowlesi had lower levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-8 and TNFα than those with complicated disease (both p<0.05, Dunn's post test, DPT). The anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-1ra and IL-10 were detected in all patients in the study. IL-1ra, the most abundant cytokine measured, correlated with parasitaemia in P. knowlesi (rs = 0.47, p =  <0.0001), P. vivax (rs = 0.61, p = 0.0042) and P. falciparum (rs = 0.57,p = 0.0054) malaria. IL-10 correlated with parasitaemia in both P. knowlesi (rs = 0.54, p =  <0.0001) and P. vivax (rs = 0.78, p =  <0.0001) infections. There were between group differences in soluble markers of macrophage activation (MIP-1β and MCP-1). P. knowlesi patients had significantly lower levels of MIP-1β than P. falciparum (DPT, p =  <0.01). Uncomplicated P. knowlesi patients had significantly lower levels of MCP-1 than uncomplicated P. falciparum patients (DPT, p =  <0.001). There was no significant difference between complicated and uncomplicated P. knowlesi infections. MCP-1, MIP-1β, IL-8 and TNFα increased in complicated P. knowlesi but decreased in complicated P. falciparum infections. Descriptions of human knowlesi malaria provide a comparative means to discover mediators of pathophysiology in severe P. knowlesi as well as P. falciparum malaria. Crucially, P. knowlesi may be the disease and experimental primate model for severe malaria

Steady-state modulation of voltage-gated K+ channels in rat arterial smooth muscle by cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase and protein phosphatase 2B

Voltage-gated potassium channels (Kv) are important regulators of membrane potential in vascular smooth muscle cells, which is integral to controlling intracellular Ca2+ concentration and regulating vascular tone. Previous work indicates that Kv channels can be modulated by receptor-driven alterations of cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) activity. Here, we demonstrate that Kv channel activity is maintained by tonic activity of PKA. Whole-cell recording was used to assess the effect of manipulating PKA signalling on Kv and ATP-dependent K+ channels of rat mesenteric artery smooth muscle cells. Application of PKA inhibitors, KT5720 or H89, caused a significant inhibition of Kv currents. Tonic PKA-mediated activation of Kv appears maximal as application of isoprenaline (a β-adrenoceptor agonist) or dibutyryl-cAMP failed to enhance Kv currents. We also show that this modulation of Kv by PKA can be reversed by protein phosphatase 2B/calcineurin (PP2B). PKA-dependent inhibition of Kv by KT5720 can be abrogated by pre-treatment with the PP2B inhibitor cyclosporin A, or inclusion of a PP2B auto-inhibitory peptide in the pipette solution. Finally, we demonstrate that tonic PKA-mediated modulation of Kv requires intact caveolae. Pre-treatment of the cells with methyl-β-cyclodextrin to deplete cellular cholesterol, or adding caveolin-scaffolding domain peptide to the pipette solution to disrupt caveolae-dependent signalling each attenuated PKA-mediated modulation of the Kv current. These findings highlight a novel, caveolae-dependent, tonic modulatory role of PKA on Kv channels providing new insight into mechanisms and the potential for pharmacological manipulation of vascular tone