Towards the systematic simplification of mechanistic models

Mechanistic models used for prediction should be parsimonious, as models which are over-parameterised may have poor predictive performance. Determining whether a model is parsimonious requires comparisons with alternative model formulations with differing levels of complexity. However, creating alternative formulations for large mechanistic models is often problematic, and usually time-consuming. Consequently, few are ever investigated. In this paper, we present an approach which rapidly generates reduced model formulations by replacing a model’s variables with constants. These reduced alternatives can be compared to the original model, using data based model selection criteria, to assist in the identification of potentially unnecessary model complexity, and thereby inform reformulation of the model. To illustrate the approach, we present its application to a published radiocaesium plant-uptake model, which predicts uptake on the basis of soil characteristics (e.g. pH, organic matter content, clay content). A total of 1024 reduced model formulations were generated, and ranked according to five model selection criteria: Residual Sum of Squares (RSS), AICc, BIC, MDL and ICOMP. The lowest scores for RSS and AICc occurred for the same reduced model in which pH dependent model components were replaced. The lowest scores for BIC, MDL and ICOMP occurred for a further reduced model in which model components related to the distinction between adsorption on clay and organic surfaces were replaced. Both these reduced models had a lower RSS for the parameterisation dataset than the original model. As a test of their predictive performance, the original model and the two reduced models outlined above were used to predict an independent dataset. The reduced models have lower prediction sums of squares than the original model, suggesting that the latter may be overfitted. The approach presented has the potential to inform model development by rapidly creating a class of alternative model formulations, which can be compared

Black-Scholes option pricing within Ito and Stratonovich conventions

Options financial instruments designed to protect investors from the stock market randomness. In 1973, Fisher Black, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton proposed a very popular option pricing method using stochastic differential equations within the Ito interpretation. Herein, we derive the Black-Scholes equation for the option price using the Stratonovich calculus along with a comprehensive review, aimed to physicists, of the classical option pricing method based on the Ito calculus. We show, as can be expected, that the Black-Scholes equation is independent of the interpretation chosen. We nonetheless point out the many subtleties underlying Black-Scholes option pricing method.Comment: 14 page

Plasma Turbulence in the Local Bubble

Turbulence in the Local Bubble could play an important role in the thermodynamics of the gas that is there. The best astronomical technique for measuring turbulence in astrophysical plasmas is radio scintillation. Measurements of the level of scattering to the nearby pulsar B0950+08 by Philips and Clegg in 1992 showed a markedly lower value for the line-of-sight averaged turbulent intensity parameter $$than is observed for other pulsars, consistent with radio wave propagation through a highly rarefied plasma. In this paper, we discuss the observational progress that has been made since that time. At present, there are four pulsars (B0950+08, B1133+16, J0437-4715, and B0809+74) whose lines of sight seem to lie mainly within the local bubble. The mean densities and line of sight components of the interstellar magnetic field along these lines of sight are smaller than nominal values for pulsars, but not by as much expected. Three of the four pulsars also have measurements of interstellar scintillation. The value of the parameter$$ is smaller than normal for two of them, but is completely nominal for the third. This inconclusive status of affairs could be improved by measurements and analysis of ``arcs'' in ``secondary spectra'' of pulsars.Comment: Submitted to Space Science Reviews as contribution to Proceedings of ISSI (International Space Science Institute) workshop "From the Heliosphere to the Local Bubble". Refereed version accepted for publicatio

An exploration of concepts of community through a case study of UK university web production

The paper explores the inter-relation and differences between the concepts of occupational community, community of practice, online community and social network. It uses as a case study illustration the domain of UK university web site production and specifically a listserv for those involved in it. Different latent occupational communities are explored, and the potential for the listserv to help realize these as an active sense of community is considered. The listserv is not (for most participants) a tight knit community of practice, indeed it fails many criteria for an online community. It is perhaps best conceived as a loose knit network of practice, valued for information, implicit support and for the maintenance of weak ties. Through the analysis the case for using strict definitions of the theoretical concepts is made

Detection of Gravitational Redshift on the Solar Disk by Using Iodine-Cell Technique

With an aim to examine whether the predicted solar gravitational redshift can be observationally confirmed under the influence of the convective Doppler shift due to granular motions, we attempted measuring the absolute spectral line-shifts on a large number of points over the solar disk based on an extensive set of 5188-5212A region spectra taken through an iodine-cell with the Solar Domeless Telescope at Hida Observatory. The resulting heliocentric line shifts at the meridian line (where no rotational shift exists), which were derived by finding the best-fit parameterized model spectrum with the observed spectrum and corrected for the earth's motion, turned out to be weakly position-dependent as ~ +400 m/s near the disk center and increasing toward the limb up to ~ +600 m/s (both with a standard deviation of sigma ~ 100 m/s). Interestingly, this trend tends to disappear when the convectiveshift due to granular motions (~-300 m/s at the disk center and increasing toward the limb; simulated based on the two-component model along with the empirical center-to-limb variation) is subtracted, finally resulting in the averaged shift of 698 m/s (sigma = 113 m/s). Considering the ambiguities involved in the absolute wavelength calibration or in the correction due to convective Doppler shifts (at least several tens m/s, or more likely up to <~100 m/s), we may regard that this value is well consistent with the expected gravitational redshift of 633 m/s.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures, electronic materials as ancillary data (table3, table 4, ReadMe); accepted for publication in Solar Physic

What are communities of practice? A comparative review of four seminal works

This paper is a comparative review of four seminal works on communities of practice. It is argued that the ambiguities of the terms community and practice are a source of the concept's reusability allowing it to be reappropriated for different purposes, academic and practical. However, it is potentially confusing that the works differ so markedly in their conceptualizations of community, learning, power and change, diversity and informality. The three earlier works are underpinned by a common epistemological view, but Lave and Wenger's 1991 short monograph is often read as primarily about the socialization of newcomers into knowledge by a form of apprenticeship, while the focus in Brown and Duguid's article of the same year is, in contrast, on improvising new knowledge in an interstitial group that forms in resistance to management. Wenger's 1998 book treats communities of practice as the informal relations and understandings that develop in mutual engagement on an appropriated joint enterprise, but his focus is the impact on individual identity. The applicability of the concept to the heavily individualized and tightly managed work of the twenty-first century is questionable. The most recent work by Wenger – this time with McDermott and Snyder as coauthors – marks a distinct shift towards a managerialist stance. The proposition that managers should foster informal horizontal groups across organizational boundaries is in fact a fundamental redefinition of the concept. However it does identify a plausible, if limited, knowledge management (KM) tool. This paper discusses different interpretations of the idea of 'co-ordinating' communities of practice as a management ideology of empowerment

Proposing a speech to gesture translation architecture for Spanish deaf people.

This article describes an architecture for translating speech into Spanish Sign Language (SSL). The architecture proposed is made up of four modules: speech recognizer, semantic analysis, gesture sequence generation and gesture playing. For the speech recognizer and the semantic analysis modules, we use software developed by IBM and CSLR (Center for Spoken Language Research at University of Colorado), respectively. Gesture sequence generation and gesture animation are the modules on which we have focused our main effort. Gesture sequence generation uses semantic concepts (obtained from the semantic analysis) associating them with several SSL gestures. This association is carried out based on a number of generation rules. For gesture animation, we have developed an animated agent (virtual representation of a human person) and a strategy for reducing the effort in gesture animation. This strategy consists of making the system automatically generate all agent positions necessary for the gesture animation. In this process, the system uses a few main agent positions (two or three per second) and some interpolation strategies, both issues previously generated by the service developer (the person who adapts the architecture proposed in this paper to a specific domain). Related to this module, we propose a distance between agent positions and a measure of gesture complexity. This measure can be used to analyze the gesture perception versus its complexity. With the architecture proposed, we are not trying to build a domain independent translator but a system able to translate speech utterances into gesture sequences in a restricted domain: railway, flights or weather information

The potential of discs from a "mean Green function"

By using various properties of the complete elliptic integrals, we have derived an alternative expression for the gravitational potential of axially symmetric bodies, which is free of singular kernel in contrast with the classical form. This is mainly a radial integral of the local surface density weighted by a regular "mean Green function" which depends explicitly on the body's vertical thickness. Rigorously, this result stands for a wide variety of configurations, as soon as the density structure is vertically homogeneous. Nevertheless, the sensitivity to vertical stratification | the Gaussian profile has been considered | appears weak provided that the surface density is conserved. For bodies with small aspect ratio (i.e. geometrically thin discs), a first-order Taylor expansion furnishes an excellent approximation for this mean Green function, the absolute error being of the fourth order in the aspect ratio. This formula is therefore well suited to studying the structure of self-gravitating discs and rings in the spirit of the "standard model of thin discs" where the vertical structure is often ignored, but it remains accurate for discs and tori of finite thickness. This approximation which perfectly saves the properties of Newton's law everywhere (in particular at large separations), is also very useful for dynamical studies where the body is just a source of gravity acting on external test particles.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 11 page

Topological doping and the stability of stripe phases

We analyze the properties of a general Ginzburg-Landau free energy with competing order parameters, long-range interactions, and global constraints (e.g., a fixed value of a total ``charge'') to address the physics of stripe phases in underdoped high-Tc and related materials. For a local free energy limited to quadratic terms of the gradient expansion, only uniform or phase-separated configurations are thermodynamically stable. ``Stripe'' or other non-uniform phases can be stabilized by long-range forces, but can only have non-topological (in-phase) domain walls where the components of the antiferromagnetic order parameter never change sign, and the periods of charge and spin density waves coincide. The antiphase domain walls observed experimentally require physics on an intermediate lengthscale, and they are absent from a model that involves only long-distance physics. Dense stripe phases can be stable even in the absence of long-range forces, but domain walls always attract at large distances, i.e., there is a ubiquitous tendency to phase separation at small doping. The implications for the phase diagram of underdoped cuprates are discussed.Comment: 18 two-column pages, 2 figures, revtex+eps

Optical Imaging and Spectroscopic Observation of the Galactic Supernova Remnant G85.9-0.6

Optical CCD imaging with H$\alpha$ and [SII] filters and spectroscopic observations of the galactic supernova remnant G85.9-0.6 have been performed for the first time. The CCD image data are taken with the 1.5m Russian-Turkish Telescope (RTT150) at TUBITAK National Observatory (TUG) and spectral data are taken with the Bok 2.3 m telescope on Kitt Peak, AZ. The images are taken with narrow-band interference filters H$\alpha$, [SII] and their continuum. [SII]/H$\alpha$ ratio image is performed. The ratio obtained from [SII]/H$\alpha$ is found to be $\sim$0.42, indicating that the remnant interacts with HII regions. G85.9-0.6 shows diffuse-shell morphology. [SII]$\lambda\lambda 6716/6731$ average flux ratio is calculated from the spectra, and the electron density $N_{e}$ is obtained to be 395 $cm^{-3}$. From [OIII]/H$\beta$ ratio, shock velocity has been estimated, pre-shock density of $n_{c}=14$ $cm^{-3}$, explosion energy of $E=9.2\times10^{50}$ ergs, interstellar extinction of $E(B-V)=0.28$, and neutral hydrogen column density of $N(HI)=1.53\times10^{21}$ $cm^{-2}$ are reported.Comment: 20 pages, 4 tables, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc