A late Holocene pollen record from proglacial Oblong Tarn, Mount Kenya

High-elevation ecosystems, such as those on Mount Kenya are undergoing significant changes, with accelerated glacial ice losses over the twentieth century creating new space for alpine plants to establish. These ecosystems respond rapidly to climatic variability and within decades of glacial retreat, Afroalpine pioneering taxa stabilize barren land and facilitate soil development, promoting complex patches of alpine vegetation. Periglacial lake sediment records can be used to examine centennial and millennial scale variations in alpine and montane vegetation compositions. Here we present a 5300-year composite pollen record from an alpine tarn (4370 m asl) in the Hausberg Valley of Mount Kenya. Overall, the record shows little apparent variation in the pollen assemblage through time with abundant montane forest taxa derived and transported from mid elevations, notably high abundances of aerophilous Podocarpus pollen. Afroalpine taxa included Alchemilla, Helichrysum and Dendrosenecio-type, reflecting local vegetation cover. Pollen from the ericaceous zone was present throughout the record and Poaceae percentages were high, similar to other high elevation pollen records from eastern Africa. The Oblong Tarn record pollen assemblage composition and abundances of Podocarpus and Poaceae since the late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) are similar to pollen records from mid-to-high elevation sites of nearby high mountains such as Mount Elgon and Kilimanjaro. These results suggest a significant amount of uphill pollen transport with only minor apparent variation in local taxa. Slight decreasing trends in alpine and ericaceous taxonomic groups show a long-term response to global late Holocene cooling and a step decrease in rate of change estimated from the pollen assemblages at 3100 cal yr BP in response to regional hydroclimatic variability. Changes in the principal component axis scores of the pollen assemblage were coherent with an independent mid-elevation temperature reconstruction, which supported the strong influence of uphill pollen transport from montane forest vegetation and association between temperatures and montane vegetation dynamics. Pollen accumulation rates showed some variability related to minerogenic sediment input to the lake. The Oblong Tarn pollen record provides an indication of long term vegetation change atop Mount Kenya showing some decreases in local alpine and ericaceous taxa from 5300–3100 cal yr BP and minor centennial-scale variability of montane taxa from mid elevation forests. The record highlights potentials, challenges and opportunities for the use of proglacial lacustrine sediment to examine vegetation change on prominent mountain massifs

Late Pleistocene montane forest fire return interval estimates from Mount Kenya

Past forest fire events and fire frequencies are reconstructed with sediment-charcoal records at lake catchment spatial scales. Few quantitative palaeofire analyses exist in tropical montane forests, where fire return intervals are long (decadal and centennial scales) because of the infrequency of fire weather and fuel conditions. Fire return intervals are a key characteristic of fire regimes and changing fire frequencies rapidly alter land cover compositions and vegetation structure. Charcoal records from small lakes with relatively small catchments covered with dense forest provide an opportunity to reconstruct low-frequency, high-severity fires through a time series decomposition approach to identify charcoal peaks above a varying background rate as a proxy for palaeofire events. The sediment core from Rumuiku wetland on Mount Kenya, equatorial eastern Africa, accumulated a nearly linear age-depth model and provided a high temporal resolution (10 years cm -1 ) sieved charcoal count record (>125 µm). Pollen analysis showed a significant change in montane forest assemblage occurred at 21 200 cal a bp from a montane forest with abundant Podocarpus and Juniperus to a forest with more abundant Hagenia . This change in forest altered the vegetation composition and structure with concomitant changes to the fire regime. Forest biomass in the Hagenia forests decreased and it is likely that fire activity qualitatively changed toward lower intensity and lower severity fires. The quantitative fire event reconstruction focuses on the interval from 27 000 to 16 500 cal a bp and the older montane forest that experienced higher severity fires from 27 000 to 21 200 cal a bp, which reconstructed a temporally heterogeneous fire regime with fire return intervals that ranged from 30-430 years and a mean of 120 years (median 160 years) in the catchment. These are the first estimates of fire return intervals of mountain forests in eastern Africa. We then explore the potential for further comparative research and incremental research contributions to improve quantitative and qualitative palaeofire research in tropical forest ecosystems. We discuss the potential to use these types of data for characterizing variables of fire regimes prior to ostensibly significant modification by anthropogenic activity as well as during the recent past as human land use pressures increased within Afromontane forests

Late Pleistocene montane forest fire return interval estimates from Mount Kenya

Past forest fire events and fire frequencies are reconstructed with sediment–charcoal records at lake catchment spatial scales. Few quantitative palaeofire analyses exist in tropical montane forests, where fire return intervals are long (decadal and centennial scales) because of the infrequency of fire weather and fuel conditions. Fire return intervals are a key characteristic of fire regimes and changing fire frequencies rapidly alter land cover compositions and vegetation structure. Charcoal records from small lakes with relatively small catchments covered with dense forest provide an opportunity to reconstruct low-frequency, high-severity fires through a time series decomposition approach to identify charcoal peaks above a varying background rate as a proxy for palaeofire events. The sediment core from Rumuiku wetland on Mount Kenya, equatorial eastern Africa, accumulated a nearly linear age–depth model and provided a high temporal resolution (10 years cm–1) sieved charcoal count record (>125 µm). Pollen analysis showed a significant change in montane forest assemblage occurred at 21 200 cal a bp from a montane forest with abundant Podocarpus and Juniperus to a forest with more abundant Hagenia. This change in forest altered the vegetation composition and structure with concomitant changes to the fire regime. Forest biomass in the Hagenia forests decreased and it is likely that fire activity qualitatively changed toward lower intensity and lower severity fires. The quantitative fire event reconstruction focuses on the interval from 27 000 to 16 500 cal a bp and the older montane forest that experienced higher severity fires from 27 000 to 21 200 cal a bp, which reconstructed a temporally heterogeneous fire regime with fire return intervals that ranged from 30–430 years and a mean of 120 years (median 160 years) in the catchment. These are the first estimates of fire return intervals of mountain forests in eastern Africa. We then explore the potential for further comparative research and incremental research contributions to improve quantitative and qualitative palaeofire research in tropical forest ecosystems. We discuss the potential to use these types of data for characterizing variables of fire regimes prior to ostensibly significant modification by anthropogenic activity as well as during the recent past as human land use pressures increased within Afromontane forests

Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies’ relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals

Forests, fire histories, and futures of Columbian and Rocky Mountain forests, western Canada

Throughout the past few decades, shifting perspectives on fire management have led to the recognition that disturbance by fire is critical in maintaining ecological resilience in fire-adapted forests and grasslands. Long-term fire histories provide important information for land and resource managers seeking to understand the controls on wildfire dynamicsin western North America. In this paper we summarize fire history research that has recently been undertaken in the Canadian Cordillera. Using proxy records to reconstruct fire activity and vegetation change, these studies shared the overarching goal of identifying factors that control long-term fire regimes.A further aim was to identify how human activity has measurably altered various aspects of fire regimes. Looking to the future, these studies highlight the need to continue integrating information about local fire regimes and historical land-use activities when developing responsible fire and resource management strategies and identifying conservation priorities.Foothills Research Institute (fRI), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC

Subfossil statoblasts of Lophopodella capensis (Sollas, 1908) (Bryozoa: Phylactolaemata: Lophopodidae) in the Upper Pleistocene and Holocene sediments of a montane wetland, Eastern Mau Forest, Kenya

Lophopodella capensis (Sollas, 1908) is only known from a limited number of palustrine and lacustrine sites in southern Africa and single sites in both Kenya and Israel. Statoblasts of L. capensis were found preserved in the Upper Pleistocene and Holocene aged sediments of Enapuiyapui wetland, Eastern Mau Forest, western Kenya. The wetland is a headwater microcatchment of tributaries that feed into the Mara River and the Lake Victoria Basin. Bryozoan taxa were not surveyed in a 2007 macroinvertebrate biodiversity assessment. The presence of L. capensis at this site marks the second observation of this taxon in Kenya, 65 km from Lake Naivasha, where observed prior, and in a location some 1000 meters higher. The results suggest Bryozoa should be included in aquatic biodiversity surveys that target these wetlands and that bryozoan remains should be incorporated into palaeoecological studies as useful palaeoenvironmental indicators

Late Holocene wetland transgression and 500 years of vegetation and fire variability in the semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya

The semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya, is characterised by intermittent groundwater-fed wetlands that form sedimentary geoarchives recording past ecosystem changes. We present a 5000-year environmental history of a radiocarbon dated sediment core from Esambu Swamp adjacent to Amboseli National Park. Although radiocarbon dates suggest an unconformity or sedimentary gap that spans between 3800 and 500 cal year BP, the record provides a unique insight into the long-term ecosystem history and wetland processes, particularly the past 500 years. Climatic shifts, fire activity and recent anthropogenic activity drive changes in ecosystem composition. Prior to 3800 cal year BP the pollen data suggest semi-arid savanna ecosystem persisted near the wetland. The wetland transgressed at some time between 3800 and 500 cal year BP and it is difficult to constrain this timing further, and palustrine peaty sediments have accumulated since 400 cal year BP. Increased abundance of Afromontane forest taxa from adjacent highlands of Kilimanjaro and the Chyulu Hills and local arboreal taxa reflect changes in regional moisture budgets. Particularly transformative changes occurred in the last five centuries, associated with increased local biomass burning coeval with the arrival of Maa-speaking pastoralists and intensification of the ivory trade. Cereal crops occurred consistently from around 300 cal year BP, indicative of further anthropogenic activity. The study provides unique insight in Amboseli ecosystem history and the link between ecosystem drivers of change. Such long-term perspectives are crucial for future climate change and associated livelihood impacts, so that suitable responses to ensure sustainable management practices can be developed in an important conservation landscape

A 3000-year record of vegetation changes and fire at a high-elevation wetland on Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Kilimanjaro is experiencing the consequences of climate change and multiple land-use pressures. Few paleoenvironmental and archeological records exist to examine historical patterns of late Holocene ecosystem changes on Kilimanjaro. Here we present pollen, phytolith, and charcoal (>125 μm) data from a palustrine sediment core that provide a 3000-year radiocarbon-dated record collected from a wetland near the headwaters of the Maua watershed in the alpine and ericaceous vegetation zones. From 3000 to 800 cal yr BP, the pollen, phytolith, and charcoal records show subtle variability in ericaceous and montane forest assemblages with apparent multicentennial secular variability and a long-term pattern of increasing Poaceae and charcoal. From 800 to 600 cal yr BP, montane forest taxa varied rapidly, Cyperaceae abundances increased, and charcoal remained distinctly low. From 600 yr cal BP to the present, woody taxa decreased, and ericaceous taxa and Poaceae dominated, with a conspicuously increased charcoal influx. Uphill wetland ecosystems are crucial for ecological and socioeconomic resilience on and surrounding the mountain. The results were synthesized with the existing paleoenvironmental and archaeological data to explore the high spatiotemporal complexity of Kilimanjaro and to understand historical human-environment interactions. These paleoenvironmental records create a long-term context for current climate, biodiversity, and land-use changes on and around Kilimanjaro

Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania.

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs

A palaeovegetation and diatom record of tropical montane forest fire, vegetation and hydroseral changes on Mount Kenya from 27,000–16,500 cal yr BP

Fire is an important ecological disturbance in moist tropical forests influencing vegetation composition and structure. Contemporary and historical records of forest fires in mountain forests of Kenya are limited to the past decades and have a strong anthropogenic influence for ignition patterns and fire suppression activities. Palaeoenvironmental geoarchives provide the temporal depth to investigate long-term (multidecadal-to-millennial) changes in fire activity. Here we use a sediment record from the Rumuiku wetland, located in a volcanic crater on the eastern flank of Mount Kenya that was radiocarbon dated and analysed for diatom, pollen and charcoal subfossils to produce a highly resolved time series of local hydroclimatic change, vegetation, and fire; respectively. This study focuses on the time during and following the global Last Glacial Maximum, a time of rapid warming and changing regional hydroclimate with relatively stable atmospheric CO2 and not yet intensive anthropogenic modification of ecosystems. Charcoal and pollen data support associated changes in vegetation-fire centred around 21,500 cal yr BP when Afromontane forests with predominant abundances of Juniperus, Podocarpus and other montane forest trees changed to Hagenia-dominated forests that are relatively more open and adapted to burn more frequently but with less intense fires. These transitions in ecosystem composition, distribution and structure support the important role of fire in driving and maintaining forest composition in the watershed and contributing to the spatial complexity of forests around the mountain. These changes in composition, structure and biomass occurred during a time of rapid Late Pleistocene climate warming, regional hydroclimatic drying, and slowly rising atmospheric CO2 from 27,000 to 16,500 cal yr BP, during and following the conditions of the global Last Glacial Maximum. Temperature, hydroclimate and atmospheric CO2 are well-known drivers of montane vegetation change in the tropics and the role of fire is shown here to be a contributing driver to the spatial heterogeneity of forest patches at long time scales. Vegetation modelling at spatial scales relevant to land management and conservation should include retrospective evidence of the range of drivers of ecological disturbance regimes