Sense about science - making sense of crime

Booklet 'Making Sense of Crime' published by registered charity 'Sense About Science'There’s always heated debate about crime in the media and a lot of political argument about how we should respond to it. But these arguments rarely provide insight into what actually causes crime, what lies behind trends over time and in different places, and how best to go about reducing it. Values inform how a society decides to deal with crime. We may decide that rehabilitation is a better principle than punishment, and this will influence how we decide what is most effective. However, we also expect these choices to be disciplined by sound evidence, because if crime policy ignores what works and what doesn’t, there are likely to be bad social consequences. And with over £10bn spent annually on tackling crime through the police, prisons, probation and courts, unless we look at evidence we can’t see how effective any of it is. Crime policy usually has twin aims – to prevent crime, and to seek justice by punishing those who commit offences. Research shows there’s only a loose link, if any, between the way offenders are punished and the number of offences committed. There is no reliable evidence for example, that capital punishment reduces serious crimes as its supporters claim. Yet politicians and commentators regularly claim that more punishments are a way to cut crime. Academic, government and community organisations have all said crime policies need to be based more on evidence, but much of the evidence available at the moment is poor or unclear. Debates about crime rarely reflect how strong the evidence behind opposing policies is, and even when politicians honestly believe they’re following the evidence, they tend to select evidence that supports their political views. This guide looks at some of the key things we do know and why it has been so difficult to make sense of crime policy. An important point throughout is that policymakers sometimes have to make decisions when things are not clear-cut. They have a better chance of making effective policies if they admit to this uncertainty – and conduct robust research to find out more. In the following pages we have shared insights from experts in violent crime, policing, crime science, psychology and the media’s influence on the crime debate. They don’t have all the answers, but we hope they leave you better-placed to hold policymakers and commentators to account and promote a more useful discussion about crime

APOE ε4, Alzheimer's disease neuropathology, and sleep disturbance, in individuals with and without dementia

BACKGROUND: Apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 (APOE-ε4) carrier status is an established risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia. It has also been linked with sleep disturbance in healthy older adults and increased insomnia risk. This association may be driven by the effect of APOE-ε4 on AD pathological change, itself associated with sleep abnormalities. To assess this relationship, we have evaluated post-mortem neuropathological findings in patients with and without cognitive impairment and AD pathology, who had extensive clinical assessment within 12 months of death. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used UK Brain Banks Network data. Eligible subjects were aged over 50, with pre-mortem neuropsychiatry inventory scores of sleep disturbance (NPI-K), neurocognitive testing and functional cognitive status assessment (Clinical Dementia Rating scale). Neuropathological data included Thal phase, Braak stage and CERAD scores (measures of Aβ plaque distribution, tangle distribution and neuritic plaque density, respectively) combined to form the National Institute on Aging Alzheimer’s Association (NIA-AA) ABC score reflecting AD neuropathology. Participants with other significant intracerebral pathology or pathological features of non-AD dementia were excluded. Multivariate linear regression was performed with NPIK Global Score (NPIK frequency score multiplied by severity score) as the dependent variable and APOE-ε4 heterozygosity or homozygosity as independent variables. Covariates included age, gender, APOE-ε2 status and ABC NPI measures reflecting depression and anxiety. Further models stratified by ABC score and functional cognitive status were also produced. RESULTS: Seven hundred twenty-eight records were identified. Two hundred two participants were included in the final analysis: mean (SD) age 84.0 (9.2) and MMSE 14.0 (11.8). Mean sleep disturbance scores were highest in ε4 homozygosity (n=11), 4.55 (5.4); intermediate in ε4 heterozygosity (n=95), 2.03 (4.0); and lowest in non-ε4 carriers (n=96), 1.36 (3.3). Within the full sample, controlling for pathological status, age, gender, depression, anxiety and CDR-SOB status, APOE-ε4 homozygosity was associated with sleep disturbance (β 2.53, p=0.034). APOE-ε4 heterozygosity was similarly associated in individuals without dementia (β 1.21, p=0.048). CONCLUSION: These findings lend weight to the hypothesis that APOE-ε4 affects sleep by mechanisms independent of AD pathological change. Evaluation of those mechanisms would enhance understanding of sleep disturbance pathways and potentially provide treatment targets. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13195-022-00992-y

Optimised synthesis and further structural diversity of ytterbium benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate MOFs

The optimisation of the crystallisation of the hydrothermally-stable metal–organic framework Yb6-MOF (Yb6(BDC)7(OH)4(H2O)4) to provide a reproducible one-step synthesis is achieved by use of the sodium salt of benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate (Na2BDC) as ligand precursor and control of pH with aqueous NaOH at 190 °C over 3 days. Phase purity is confirmed using powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). During exploration of synthesis conditions from the same set of chemical reagents, three further ytterbium benzene-1,4-dicarboxylates have been isolated and structurally characterised using single-crystal X-ray diffraction, with phase purity assessed by PXRD and TGA. UOW-3 (Yb2(H2O)6(BDC)3) crystallises by lowering pH, and has a relatively dense three-dimensionally connected structure with no Yb–O–Yb linkages but dimers of Yb bridged by BDC linkers lying in the ab plane with a pseudo, pillared-layered structure, where BDC connects along c. UOW-4 (Yb4(BDC)6(H2O)6) forms under the same chemical conditions but upon lowering the temperature to 100 °C, and this material again contains no Yb–O–Yb linkages, but chains of BDC-bridged Yb centres cross-linked to give a dense three-dimensional structure. Upon increasing pH of the synthesis mixture, the material UOW-5 forms, Yb5O(OH)8(BDC)2(HBDC), consisting of dense inorganic layers of ytterbium oxyhydroxide, cross linked by BDC and HBDC pillars. The formulation is supported by infrared spectroscopy, which provides evidence for the HBDC monoanion, and also the presence of a short O–O distance indicative of hydrogen bonding between a carboxylate OH and an oxide anion of the inorganic layer. UOW-3 and UOW-4 both convert to Yb6-MOF upon heating in water above their synthesis temperature, whereas UOW-5 is hydrothermally stable at 240 °C. The structures of the new materials are discussed in terms of ligand binding modes, and connectivity of metal centres, with comparison to other reported Yb-BDC phases in order to relate structural chemistry to their synthesis conditions and the hydrothermal stability of the materials

The social cognition of medical knowledge, with special reference to childhood epilepsy

This paper arose out of an engagement in medical communication courses at a Gulf university. It deploys a theoretical framework derived from a (critical) sociocognitive approach to discourse analysis in order to investigate three aspects of medical discourse relating to childhood epilepsy: the cognitive processes that are entailed in relating different types of medical knowledge to their communicative context; the types of medical knowledge that are constituted in the three different text types analysed; and the relationship between these different types of medical knowledge and the discursive features of each text type. The paper argues that there is a cognitive dimension to the human experience of understanding and talking about one specialized from of medical knowledge. It recommends that texts be studied in medical communication courses not just in terms of their discrete formal features but also critically, in terms of the knowledge which they produce, transmit and reproduce

Synthetic approaches to pallimamine and analogues using direct imine acylation

The use of Direct Imine Acylation (DIA) methodology for the total synthesis of pallimamine is described, with three different synthetic routes examined. The construction of three advanced δ-lactam precursors, all utilising DIA, is described, along with attempts to progress these compounds further, using three distinct desymmetrisation strategies, two involving alcohol-aryl coupling, and a third involving an unusual diastereoselective lactonisation

Sustainable mining in tropical, biodiverse landscapes: Environmental challenges and opportunities in the archipelagic Philippines

The rising demand for critical metals presents a major economic opportunity for mineral-rich countries. For a sustainable transition to a low-carbon future, it is essential to minimise impacts of mineral resource development to the environment, ecosystems, and societies of these nations. Although there has been considerable progress in the social aspects of the mining sector, environmental metrics are not showing comparable improvement. The Philippines exemplifies this challenge as a country that aims to conserve its exceptional biodiversity to maximise ecosystem services while expanding mining activities for economic growth, in a geographical setting with high mineral potential and vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. Similar to many mining areas, environmental baselines are mostly non-existent, compounded by a legacy of mining impacts despite an established policy framework. We review issues associated with large- and small-scale mining and identify underlying research challenges and opportunities in the Philippines. Potential environmental research pathways include (i) innovative approaches for catchment scale characterisation and identification of contaminant sources; (ii) quantifying and predicting contaminant transport; (iii) deployment of flexible monitoring devices for larger-scale water quality monitoring programmes; (iv) tailings dam monitoring and management; and (v) resource assessment and metal recovery in ores and tailings. By integrating geomorphological tools with geochemical data, as well as 2D/3D numerical modelling techniques, it becomes possible to predict and understand the behaviour and fate of contaminants across different spatial and temporal scales. The development of cost-effective water quality assessment devices and protocols can help overcome logistical challenges in monitoring a wider range of hydrological conditions. Advanced applications of remote sensing, combined with machine learning, and geophysical monitoring systems provide new opportunities to detect mining footprints and observe change in tailings dams more effectively. Potential impacts of mine wastes can be further minimised by exploring innovative technologies such as the use of metal-accumulating native plant species and environmentally safe solvents to reprocess modern and legacy tailings. Insights from these pathways will enable the realisation of a more sustainable mining future, through the incorporation of findings into existing and future governmental and small- and large-scale mining policy and practice. This will lead to sustainable development for society, particularly in nations that are well positioned to benefit from sustainable mineral resource development

Common variants at ABCA7, MS4A6A/MS4A4E, EPHA1, CD33 and CD2AP are associated with Alzheimer's disease

We sought to identify new susceptibility loci for Alzheimer's disease through a staged association study (GERAD+) and by testing suggestive loci reported by the Alzheimer's Disease Genetic Consortium (ADGC) in a companion paper. We undertook a combined analysis of four genome-wide association datasets (stage 1) and identified ten newly associated variants with P ≤ 1 × 10−5. We tested these variants for association in an independent sample (stage 2). Three SNPs at two loci replicated and showed evidence for association in a further sample (stage 3). Meta-analyses of all data provided compelling evidence that ABCA7 (rs3764650, meta P = 4.5 × 10−17; including ADGC data, meta P = 5.0 × 10−21) and the MS4A gene cluster (rs610932, meta P = 1.8 × 10−14; including ADGC data, meta P = 1.2 × 10−16) are new Alzheimer's disease susceptibility loci. We also found independent evidence for association for three loci reported by the ADGC, which, when combined, showed genome-wide significance: CD2AP (GERAD+, P = 8.0 × 10−4; including ADGC data, meta P = 8.6 × 10−9), CD33 (GERAD+, P = 2.2 × 10−4; including ADGC data, meta P = 1.6 × 10−9) and EPHA1 (GERAD+, P = 3.4 × 10−4; including ADGC data, meta P = 6.0 × 10−10)

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning

The effects of the dopamine agonist rotigotine on hemispatial neglect following stroke

Hemispatial neglect following right-hemisphere stroke is a common and disabling disorder, for which there is currently no effective pharmacological treatment. Dopamine agonists have been shown to play a role in selective attention and working memory, two core cognitive components of neglect. Here, we investigated whether the dopamine agonist rotigotine would have a beneficial effect on hemispatial neglect in stroke patients. A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled ABA design was used, in which each patient was assessed for 20 testing sessions, in three phases: pretreatment (Phase A1), on transdermal rotigotine for 7-11 days (Phase B) and post-treatment (Phase A2), with the exact duration of each phase randomized within limits. Outcome measures included performance on cancellation (visual search), line bisection, visual working memory, selective attention and sustained attention tasks, as well as measures of motor control. Sixteen right-hemisphere stroke patients were recruited, all of whom completed the trial. Performance on the Mesulam shape cancellation task improved significantly while on rotigotine, with the number of targets found on the left side increasing by 12.8% (P = 0.012) on treatment and spatial bias reducing by 8.1% (P = 0.016). This improvement in visual search was associated with an enhancement in selective attention but not on our measures of working memory or sustained attention. The positive effect of rotigotine on visual search was not associated with the degree of preservation of prefrontal cortex and occurred even in patients with significant prefrontal involvement. Rotigotine was not associated with any significant improvement in motor performance. This proof-of-concept study suggests a beneficial role of dopaminergic modulation on visual search and selective attention in patients with hemispatial neglect following stroke