Integrating the impact of climate change, price changes and recent CAP orientation on Mediterranean farming systems

It is of interest to compare the possible impact of climate change (CC) on agriculture with thepossible effects of changes in the agricultural policies and regulations, as well as marketconditions. In this regard, recent studies show that the impact of changes in the policies,regulations and market conditions may be even larger than that of the CC and may determinethe changes in land use and livelihood strategies of farms in highly vulnerable areas to CC. Newtechnologies could compensate for the adverse impacts of increased occurrence of negativeconditions. On the other hand, changes in the ratios between commodity and factor pricesinteract with CC, in some cases balancing its impacts, in other cases accentuating them. Inaddition, new market regulation such as the abolishment of the milk quota and many measuresoriginating from the recent orientation of the CAP may contribute to improved adaptation to theCC.In this paper we review the analysis of the impact of CC in the Oristano MACSUR study area, tointegrate the influence of elements, other than CC, on the management and adaptationstrategies of local farming systems. We focus on milk quota abolition, CAP reform, with new directpayments, new price conditions and technological improvements as provided by the CAPRInetwork. The study represents the productive conditions of the area with a discrete stochasticprogramming model specified for its main farms types, irrigated and rainfed. This version of theOristano model allows adjustment of herd and flock characteristics, acreage of tree crops andother structural elements. The assessment verifies the relationship between impact of CC and theinfluence of policy, and of new technological and market conditions

To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change

Un modelo de PMP extendido para analizar la adopción de técnicas de riego deficitario bajo pagos ambientales

The growing policy pressure to reduce water use could lead to the introduction of environmental payments granted on the basis of the amount of water farmers save. This paper proposes an extension of the PMP Röhm and Dabbert approach in order to consider deficit irrigation crop techniques which are not observed in the reference period. The proposed methodology is applied to an Italian irrigated area to evaluate the likely impact of such environmental payments on water use, cropping patterns, adoption of deficit irrigation techniques and economic results on farms. The analysis shows that the considered payments induce farmers to reduce water use, to adopt deficit irrigation techniques and increase economic results. This latter result occurs because the payments counterbalance the negative impact caused by the reduction of water use.La creciente presión de la opinión pública para reducir el uso del agua podría llevar a introducir pagos medioambientales basados en la cantidad de agua que el agricultor ahorra. Este artículo propone una extensión del modelo PMP Röhm y Dabbert para incluir en este varias técnicas de déficit de riego, las cuales no han sido observadas en el periodo de referencia. Se ha aplicado la metodología propuesta a un area irrigada de Italia, para evaluar el posible impacto de estos pagos ambientales en el uso de agua, modelos de cultivo, adopción de técnicas de déficit de riego, así como en los resultados económicos. El análisis muestra que los pagos considerados inducen a los agricultores a reducir el uso del agua, a adoptar técnicas de déficit de riego y aumentan los resultados económicos. Este último resultado ocurre porque los pagos superan el impacto negativo causado por la reducción del uso del agua

The impacts of environmental and climate targets on agriculture: Policy options in Italy

This study is aimed at proposing a model to assess the economic private costs for farms deriving from the implementation of some of the environmental targets set by the European Farm to Fork strategy and the objective of a carbon-neutral agricultural sector, by also evaluating the synergies and trade-offs between environmental objectives. An agro-economic supply model, based on mathematical programming and microdata from the Farm Accountancy Data Network, is used. The model is applied to Italian agriculture as a case study. Results show losses in added value, higher level of resource efficiency and synergies among different targets. Policy implications include exploiting the synergies and accompanying the transition with measures aimed at compensating the most impacted sectors

An evaluation of the economic impact of Climate Change through a three-stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model

The climate change in the agricultural sector acting on multiple weather variables at different times of the various crop cycles. In several cases by changing the mean level of variables (rainfall, temperature, etc..), in other cases by changing the distribution of events. This work provides an evaluation of the economic impact due to changes in multiple events, and to the associated uncertainty. For this reason, a classical two-stage stochastic programming model was extend into a three-stages model. The model is specified for an area of Sardinia, and examines the impact of climate change on rainfall and hence on the availability of water for agriculture, and on maximum temperatures and, therefore, on the requirements of some irrigated crops relevant to the agricultural economy of the area. The effect of climate change is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future, obtained by projecting to 2015 the climate trends of the last fifty years. The results show that the agricultural sector of the area adapt itself with a low cost by use of land and cultural practices. This cost, however, is very high for some farms that suffer a significant reduction of the income. There is also an increase of the use of natural resources, in particularly groundwater. The economic impact of these changes is due primarily to the decreased of water availability in the future. The availability of water becomes the crucial factor to adapting to climate change, because the effects of temperature can be compensate by increased the use of water resources