Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona

This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The ''Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros'', a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for Catalonia corresponding to 1956, 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2009. Prevention measures like rainwater tanks and improvements to the drainage system were also been considered. The specific case of Barcelona is presented, a city recognised by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as a model city for urban resilience to floods. The evolution of flood events in the MAB does not show any significant trend for this period. We argue that the evolution in floods can be explained, at least in part, by the lack of trend in extreme precipitation indices, and also by the improvements in flood prevention measures

Cold-air pooling in the Cerdanya valley (Pyrenees)

Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Transformed Follicular Lymphoma (tFL): Results of a Retrospective Multicenter Study from GELTAMO/GETH-TC Spanish Groups

Simple Summary Follicular lymphoma (FL) is the most prevalent subtype of indolent lymphoma, accounting for 70% of all cases. The estimated risk of histological transformation (tFL), such as diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL), varies from 2-3% per year to 7-8% at 10 years in different series. Treatment after transformation is not clearly established. Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT) could be an option for these patients, but it has not been widely explored. We analyze the efficacy and toxicity of alloSCT in 43 patients from 14 Spanish centers. We observed long-term survival in around one third of the patients, especially those who developed chronic graft versus host disease, indicating that alloSCT continues to be a potentially curative option for patients with tFL, mainly due to the graft versus lymphoma effect. Background: Transformation of follicular lymphoma into an aggressive lymphoma (tFL) worsens the prognosis and the standard treatment is not completely defined. Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT) could be a potentially curative option for these patients, but it has not been widely explored. Methods: We designed a retrospective multicenter study to analyze the efficacy and toxicity of alloSCT in tFL patients and potential prognostic factors of survival. Results: A total of 43 patients diagnosed with tFL who underwent alloSCT in 14 Spanish centers between January 2000 and January 2019 were included. Median age was 44 (31-67) years. After a median follow-up of 58 months, estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were both 35%. Estimated 100-day and 1-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) were 20% and 34%, respectively. The type of conditioning regimen (3-year OS of 52% vs. 20%, respectively, for reduced-intensity vs. myeloablative conditioning) and development of chronic graft versus host disease (cGVHD) (3-year OS of 75% vs. 40%) were the only factors significantly associated with OS. The only variable with an independent association with OS was cGVHD (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-9.6). Conclusions: Our results indicate that alloSCT continues to be a potentially curative option for patients with tFL

Adaptation to flood risk - results of international paired flood event studies

As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro‐climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur

Predictive Power of the "Trigger Tool" for the detection of adverse events in general surgery: a multicenter observational validation study

Background In spite of the global implementation of standardized surgical safety checklists and evidence-based practices, general surgery remains associated with a high residual risk of preventable perioperative complications and adverse events. This study was designed to validate the hypothesis that a new “Trigger Tool” represents a sensitive predictor of adverse events in general surgery. Methods An observational multicenter validation study was performed among 31 hospitals in Spain. The previously described “Trigger Tool” based on 40 specific triggers was applied to validate the predictive power of predicting adverse events in the perioperative care of surgical patients. A prediction model was used by means of a binary logistic regression analysis. Results The prevalence of adverse events among a total of 1,132 surgical cases included in this study was 31.53%. The “Trigger Tool” had a sensitivity and specificity of 86.27% and 79.55% respectively for predicting these adverse events. A total of 12 selected triggers of overall 40 triggers were identified for optimizing the predictive power of the “Trigger Tool”. Conclusions The “Trigger Tool” has a high predictive capacity for predicting adverse events in surgical procedures. We recommend a revision of the original 40 triggers to 12 selected triggers to optimize the predictive power of this tool, which will have to be validated in future studies

Flood damage assessment in two western Mediterranean regions. Present conditions and future scenarios

[eng] Flooding is one of the main natural hazard in the world causing huge economic and human impacts. Assessing the flood damage in the Mediterranean region is of great importance, mainly due to its pronounced sensitivity to climate change. A large number of floods affecting the western Mediterranean region of study are surface water floods that can cause catastrophic damage. These floods are caused by intense precipitation events, thus, in order to understand properly these type of events, the analysis of the relationship between precipitation and flood damage is crucial. The overall objective of this thesis is to analyse flood damages in two Mediterranean regions, namely Catalonia and the Valencian Community, frequently affected by intense precipitation events, as well as to estimate their changes when future climate change projections and different socioeconomic scenarios are considered. To do this, the relationship between heavy precipitation and flood damage estimates from insurance datasets, provided by the Spanish Insurance Compensation Consortium (Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros, CCS), have been analysed. Other than for the above mentioned two areas of study, this analysis was performed for the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB), a highly vulnerable urban area. The study period covers 1996-2015. Several regression models have been tested in order to gauge the probability of large damaging events occurring given a certain precipitation amount and taking into account other variables related to the exposure of the territory. Results have shown that generalized linear mixed models are the most appropriate tool for studying the relationship between precipitation and flood damage. The probability of a damaging flood event increases with precipitation and population of the basin. Moreover, 30-min precipitation data proved to be a better predictor of the probability of large damages than daily precipitation, however, this type of information is not always available. On the other hand, we have analysed the projected changes in precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and an ensemble of seven EURO-CORDEX simulations spanning the period 1976-2100. In order to do this, different climate indices were calculated to estimate the changes in precipitation assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above preindustrial levels. Results show a general decrease of the total annual precipitation and an increase in the length of dry spell in most of the Peninsula. This increase accentuates with higher levels of global warming and during summer months. In terms of heavy precipitation, we have found increases with global warming in the maximum 1-day and consecutive 5-day precipitation indices as well as in the number of days with precipitation exceeding 40 mm, especially during the months of autumn and winter and in the north and north-east of the Iberian Peninsula. Finally, changes in the probability of occurrence of damaging flood events have been assessed for both regions when considering a global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C and taking into account different climate projections and socioeconomic scenarios. To do this, the previously developed statistical climate model that links precipitation, population and flood damage estimates, has been used to assess future climate conditions. The daily precipitation data from the seven climate models used previously and population projections based on five different socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) were incorporated into the model. Results have shown a general increase in the probability of a damaging event for most of the cases and in both regions of study, being higher in the case of Catalonia. This change is usually larger when greater warming is considered and for higher percentiles of damage. Moreover, the increase in probability is larger when both climate and population changes are included. Our findings highlight that, when it comes to flood damage analysis, it is crucial not only to account for climate change but also consider socioeconomic conditions. Furthermore, results show that limiting global warming is a must in order to minimise the consequences of flood events in the study area.[cat] Les inundacions són un dels principals desastres naturals al món degut als grans impactes econòmics i humans que causen. La majoria d'inundacions que afecten l'oest del Mediterrani són inundacions d'aigua superficial, les quals estan causades per episodis de precipitació intensa. L'objectiu general d'aquesta tesis és analitzar els danys per inundacions que es produeixen a dues regions Mediterrànies: Catalunya i la Comunitat Valenciana, les quals es veuen freqüentment afectades per episodis de precipitació intensa, així com estimar els canvis en aquests danys tenint en compte tant les projeccions futures de canvi climàtic com diferents escenaris socioeconòmics. En primer lloc, s'ha analitzat la relació entre la precipitació intensa i els danys per inundacions estimats a partir de dades d'asseguradores. Els resultats han demostrat que els models lineals mixtes generalitzats són la metodologia més apropiada per estudiar la relació entre la precipitació i els danys causats per les inundacions. La probabilitat de que tingui lloc un episodi d'inundacions amb grans danys augmenta amb la precipitació i la població de la conca. Per una altra banda, s'han analitzat els canvis en la precipitació a la península Ibèrica quan s'assumeix un escalfament global de 1,5, 2 i 3 °C per sobre dels nivells preindustrials. Els resultats mostren una disminució general de la precipitació total anual i un augment de la precipitació extrema principalment durant els mesos de tardor i hivern i al nord i nord-est de la península Ibèrica. Finalment, s'han avaluat els canvis en la probabilitat que es produeixin episodis d'inundacions amb grans danys a les dues regions d'estudi quan es considera un escalfament global d'1,5, 2 i 3 °C i es tenen en compte diferents projeccions climàtiques i escenaris socioeconòmics. Els resultats mostren que hi ha un augment general d’aquesta probabilitat per ambdues regions d'estudi, sent més accentuada en el cas de Catalunya. Aquest canvi és major quan es considera un nivell d'escalfament superior i per percentils de danys més alts. A més a més, s’accentua quan es tenen en compte tant els canvis en la precipitació com en la població. Els nostres resultats ressalten que, quan es tracta d'analitzar els danys de les inundacions, és molt important tenir en compte tant el canvi climàtic com també les condicions socioeconòmiques. A més a més, els resultats mostren que limitar l'escalfament global esdevé una necessitat per minimitzar les conseqüències dels episodis d'inundacions a la zona d'estudi

The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain)

Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies

The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain)

Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies

Changes in flood damage with global warming in the east coast of Spain

One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees or flood-control reservoirs, which substantially reduce the probability of flooding at the time of implementation. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach. They have shown that increasing the levels of flood protection can attract more settlements and high-value assets in the areas protected by the new measures. Other studies have explored how structural measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can act to reduce preparedness. These paradoxical risk changes have been described as levee effect, safe development paradox or safety dilemma. In this commentary, we briefly review this phenomenon by critically analysing the intended benefits and unintended effects of structural flood protection, and then we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to uncover these paradoxical dynamics of risk

Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona

This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The ''Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros'', a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for Catalonia corresponding to 1956, 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2009. Prevention measures like rainwater tanks and improvements to the drainage system were also been considered. The specific case of Barcelona is presented, a city recognised by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as a model city for urban resilience to floods. The evolution of flood events in the MAB does not show any significant trend for this period. We argue that the evolution in floods can be explained, at least in part, by the lack of trend in extreme precipitation indices, and also by the improvements in flood prevention measures