AirSeaFluxCode: Open-source software for calculating turbulent air-sea fluxes from meteorological parameters

The turbulent exchanges, or fluxes, of heat, moisture and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean play a crucial role in the Earth’s climate system. Direct measurements of turbulent fluxes are very challenging and sparse, and do not span the full range of environmental conditions that exist over the ocean. This means that empirical “bulk formulae” parameterizations that relate direct flux observations to concurrent measurements of the mean meteorological and sea surface variables contain considerable uncertainty. In this paper, we present a Python 3.6 (or higher) open-source software package “AirSeaFluxCode” for the computation of the heat (latent and sensible) and momentum fluxes. Ten different parameterizations are included, each based on published descriptions or code and each derived from a different set of observations, or different assumptions about the turbulent exchange processes. They represent a range of current expert opinion on how the fluxes depend on mean properties and can be used to explore uncertainty in calculated fluxes. AirSeaFluxCode also allows the adjustment of the mean meteorological input parameters (air temperature, humidity and wind speed) from the height at which they are obtained to a user-defined output height. This height adjustment enables the comparison of measurements, or model-derived values, made at different heights above sea-level. The parameterizations calculate the fluxes using input parameters that are relatively easily to measure, or are available as model output: wind speed, air temperature, sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity. Where original code is available we have compared its output with that of AirSeaFluxCode. Any changes made to increase consistency across algorithms by standardizing computational methods or calculation of meteorological variables, for example, are discussed and the impacts quantified: these are shown to be insignificant except for a few cases where conditions were extreme, and AirSeaFluxCode is shown to be robust. We also investigate the impact on the fluxes caused by different assumptions about the exchange processes, or the choices inherent in the implementation of the parameterizations. For example, sea surface temperature usually refers to data typically obtained at depths of between 1 and 10 m. However, since some parameterizations require a “skin” sea surface temperature, code that adjusts temperature at depth to skin temperature is included: this has a very significant impact on the fluxes. Selecting a parameterization that is appropriate for the available sea surface temperature will avoid the need to adjust the sea temperature data and the uncertainties associated with that adjustment, and will also avoid the biases due to use of the “wrong” measure of temperature. Significant differences also resulted from assumptions about the size of reduction in sea surface humidity to account for salinity effects: the uncertainty in the reduction factor needs to be quantified in future analyses. Fluxes in extreme conditions are particularly uncertain since the transfer coefficients in the different parameterizations vary most at very high and very low wind speeds. Low wind speeds are also challenging for numerical implementation since choices have to be made regarding: convergence criteria for the iterative calculation, inclusion of a parameterization for convective gustiness, or application of ad hoc limits to various parameters. All of these choices can significantly affect the flux estimates for light winds

How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?

Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability

Best-shot versus weakest-link in political lobbying: an application of group all-pay auction

We analyze a group political lobbying all-pay auction with a group specific public good prize, in which one group follows a weakest-link and the other group follows a best-shot impact function. We completely characterize all semi-symmetric equilibria. There are two types of equilibria: (1) each player in the best-shot group puts mass at the upper bound of the support, whereas each player in the other group puts mass at the lower bound of the support; (2) players in the best-shot group put masses at both the lower and the upper bounds, while the other group randomizes without a mass point. An earlier and longer version of this study was circulated under the title “The Group All-pay Auction with Heterogeneous Impact Functions.” We appreciate the comments of an Associate Editor and two anonymous referees, Kyung Hwan Baik, Walter Enders, Matt Van Essen, Paan Jindapon, David Malueg, Paul Pecorino, Seth Streitmatter, Ted Turocy, the participants at the 2015 conference of ‘Contest: Theory and Evidence’ at the University of East Anglia, and the seminar participants at the University of Alabama and Korea University. Iryna Topolyan gratefully acknowledges the support from the Charles Phelps Taft Research Center. Any remaining errors are our own

The calcareous brown alga Padina pavonica in southern Britain: population change and tenacity over 300 years

Understanding long-term persistence and variability in species populations can help to predict future survival, growth and distribution; however, sustained observations are exceedingly rare. We examine and interpret a remarkable record of the calcareous brown alga Padina pavonica (Phaeophyceae) at its northern limit on the south coast of England (50°N, 1–3°W) from 1680 to 2014, which is probably the longest compilation and review of any marine algal species. Over this period, which extends from the middle of the Little Ice Age to the present, there has been considerable variability in temperature and storminess. We identified a significant number of site extinctions in the second half of the nineteenth century, which coincided with cooler conditions and stormier weather. To interpret thesechanges, we measured recruitment, growth and production of tetraspores at sheltered and exposed sites in 2012–2014, years which had low and high spring temperatures. Potential spore production was greater at the sheltered site due to a longer growing period and survival of larger fronds. Delayed growth in the cooler spring resulted in smaller fronds and lower potential production of tetraspores by early summer. Yet in the warmer year, rapid initial growth caused higher sensitivity to damage and dislodgement by summer storms, which also limited potential spore production. Antagonistic responses to multiple stressors and disturbances make future predictions of survival and distribution difficult. Fronds of Padina pavonica are sensitive to both temperature and physical disturbances, yet vegetative perennation appears to have enabled population persistence and explained the longevity of remaining populations

The Fat Mass and Obesity Associated Gene FTO Functions in the Brain to Regulate Postnatal Growth in Mice

FTO (fat mass and obesity associated) was identified as an obesity-susceptibility gene by several independent large-scale genome association studies. A cluster of SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphism) located in the first intron of FTO was found to be significantly associated with obesity-related traits, such as body mass index, hip circumference, and body weight. FTO encodes a protein with a novel C-terminal α-helical domain and an N-terminal double-strand β-helix domain which is conserved in Fe(II) and 2-oxoglutarate-dependent oxygenase family. In vitro, FTO protein can demethylate single-stranded DNA or RNA with a preference for 3-methylthymine or 3-methyluracil. Its physiological substrates and function, however, remain to be defined. Here we report the generation and analysis of mice carrying a conditional deletion allele of Fto. Our results demonstrate that Fto plays an essential role in postnatal growth. The mice lacking Fto completely display immediate postnatal growth retardation with shorter body length, lower body weight, and lower bone mineral density than control mice, but their body compositions are relatively normal. Consistent with the growth retardation, the Fto mutant mice have reduced serum levels of IGF-1. Moreover, despite the ubiquitous expression of Fto, its specific deletion in the nervous system results in similar phenotypes as the whole body deletion, indicating that Fto functions in the central nerve system to regulate postnatal growth

Genetic influences on exercise participation in 37.051 twin pairs from seven countries

Background. A sedentary lifestyle remains a major threat to health in contemporary societies. To get more insight in the relative contribution of genetic and environmental influences on individual differences in exercise participation, twin samples from seven countries participating in the GenomEUtwin project were used. Methodology. Self-reported data on leisure time exercise behavior from Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom were used to create a comparable index of exercise participation in each country (60 minutes weekly at a minimum intensity of four metabolic equivalents). Principal Findings. Modest geographical variation in exercise participation was revealed in 85,198 subjects, aged 19-40 years. Modeling of monozygotic and dizygotic twin resemblance showed that genetic effects play an important role in explaining individual differences in exercise participation in each country. Shared environmental effects played no role except for Norwegian males. Heritability of exercise participation in males and females was similar and ranged from 48% to 71% (excluding Norwegian males). Conclusions. Genetic variation is important in individual exercise behavior and may involve genes influencing the acute mood effects of exercise, high exercise ability, high weight loss ability, and personality. This collaborative study suggests that attempts to find genes influencing exercise participation can pool exercise data across multiple countries and different instruments.Background. A sedentary lifestyle remains a major threat to health in contemporary societies. To get more insight in the relative contribution of genetic and environmental influences on individual differences in exercise participation, twin samples from seven countries participating in the GenomEUtwin project were used. Methodology. Self-reported data on leisure time exercise behavior from Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom were used to create a comparable index of exercise participation in each country (60 minutes weekly at a minimum intensity of four metabolic equivalents). Principal Findings. Modest geographical variation in exercise participation was revealed in 85,198 subjects, aged 19-40 years. Modeling of monozygotic and dizygotic twin resemblance showed that genetic effects play an important role in explaining individual differences in exercise participation in each country. Shared environmental effects played no role except for Norwegian males. Heritability of exercise participation in males and females was similar and ranged from 48% to 71% (excluding Norwegian males). Conclusions. Genetic variation is important in individual exercise behavior and may involve genes influencing the acute mood effects of exercise, high exercise ability, high weight loss ability, and personality. This collaborative study suggests that attempts to find genes influencing exercise participation can pool exercise data across multiple countries and different instruments.Background. A sedentary lifestyle remains a major threat to health in contemporary societies. To get more insight in the relative contribution of genetic and environmental influences on individual differences in exercise participation, twin samples from seven countries participating in the GenomEUtwin project were used. Methodology. Self-reported data on leisure time exercise behavior from Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom were used to create a comparable index of exercise participation in each country (60 minutes weekly at a minimum intensity of four metabolic equivalents). Principal Findings. Modest geographical variation in exercise participation was revealed in 85,198 subjects, aged 19-40 years. Modeling of monozygotic and dizygotic twin resemblance showed that genetic effects play an important role in explaining individual differences in exercise participation in each country. Shared environmental effects played no role except for Norwegian males. Heritability of exercise participation in males and females was similar and ranged from 48% to 71% (excluding Norwegian males). Conclusions. Genetic variation is important in individual exercise behavior and may involve genes influencing the acute mood effects of exercise, high exercise ability, high weight loss ability, and personality. This collaborative study suggests that attempts to find genes influencing exercise participation can pool exercise data across multiple countries and different instruments.Peer reviewe

The Effect of Interpersonal Psychotherapy and other Psychodynamic Therapies versus ‘Treatment as Usual’ in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder

Major depressive disorder afflicts an estimated 17% of individuals during their lifetimes at tremendous suffering and costs. Interpersonal psychotherapy and other psychodynamic therapies may be effective interventions for major depressive disorder, but the effects have only had limited assessment in systematic reviews.Cochrane systematic review methodology with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomized trials comparing the effect of psychodynamic therapies versus ‘treatment as usual’ for major depressive disorder. To be included the participants had to be older than 17 years with a primary diagnosis of major depressive disorder. Altogether, we included six trials randomizing a total of 648 participants. Five trials assessed ‘interpersonal psychotherapy’ and only one trial assessed ‘psychodynamic psychotherapy’. All six trials had high risk of bias. Meta-analysis on all six trials showed that the psychodynamic interventions significantly reduced depressive symptoms on the 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (mean difference −3.12 (95% confidence interval −4.39 to −1.86;P<0.00001), no heterogeneity) compared with ‘treatment as usual’. Trial sequential analysis confirmed this result.We did not find convincing evidence supporting or refuting the effect of interpersonal psychotherapy or psychodynamic therapy compared with ‘treatment as usual’ for patients with major depressive disorder. The potential beneficial effect seems small and effects on major outcomes are unknown. Randomized trials with low risk of systematic errors and low risk of random errors are needed

Complex needs in homelessness practice; a review of 'new markets of vulnerability'

This article reviews institutional responses to adult homeless people, to argue that there is a contemporary flourishing of debates about complex needs across homelessness research and practice fields. These understand housing need as a mental and physical health issue and a care and support need, with foundations in biographical and societal events, issues and experiences, including trauma. Responses to complex needs are conceptualised as enterprising in scope; articulated as fresh, proactive, preventative and positive. The article suggests that there are a range of legislative, policy and funding drivers for these developments, from across homelessness, housing support and adult social care fields, which are distinctive to the English context. At the same time, debates about what complex needs are, and how best to respond to them, are evident in international debates about service delivery models with homeless service users in the Global Western North. ‘Complex needs’ is defined as a travelling concept, with affective qualities, which provides foundation for practice interventions, techniques and principles in different locations. The article conceptualises institutional machinations around the governance of complex needs as ‘new markets of vulnerability’. This term theorises new markets and new marketising strategies around complex needs in the context of a much larger reconfiguring of the mixed economies of welfare around markets and market mimicking devices and practices. It is argued that the intensification of activities around complex needs give insight into processes of neoliberalisation in contemporary modernized welfare ‘mixes’