Concentration inequalities of the cross-validation estimate for stable predictors

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for stable predictors in the context of risk assessment. The notion of stability has been first introduced by \cite{DEWA79} and extended by \cite{KEA95}, \cite{BE01} and \cite{KUNIY02} to characterize class of predictors with infinite VC dimension. In particular, this covers $k$-nearest neighbors rules, bayesian algorithm (\cite{KEA95}), boosting,... General loss functions and class of predictors are considered. We use the formalism introduced by \cite{DUD03} to cover a large variety of cross-validation procedures including leave-one-out cross-validation, $k$-fold cross-validation, hold-out cross-validation (or split sample), and the leave-$\upsilon$-out cross-validation. In particular, we give a simple rule on how to choose the cross-validation, depending on the stability of the class of predictors. In the special case of uniform stability, an interesting consequence is that the number of elements in the test set is not required to grow to infinity for the consistency of the cross-validation procedure. In this special case, the particular interest of leave-one-out cross-validation is emphasized

A New Monthly Synthetic Indicator Summarising the Business Climate of the French Service Sector

The new monthly synthetic indicator proposed in this article summarizes the information contained in the French services business survey. It is obtained by extracting a signal common to three monthly series and to three quarterly series. The approach used in its construction falls within the scope of dynamic factor analysis. The synthetic indicator is the result of an estimation of an unobservable components model. The synthetic indicator can be applied to three sub-sectors covered by the services business survey (business services, household services and real estate activities). An economic analyst can use the indicator to update a forecast of quarterly service production not just from one quarter to the next but also from month to month. Furthermore, it contains specific information with regard to the synthetic indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry and, therefore, contributes to the GDP forecast.Business Tendency Surveys, Service Sectors, Dynamic Factor Analysis, Multifrequency Data

Urbilateria, un être évolué ?

Les métazoaires triblastiques, dans leur grande majorité, sont des bilatériens. Le degré d’organisation de leur ancêtre hypothétique commun, Urbilateria, est un problème majeur de l’évolution. Pour certains, qui le font dériver d’une larve planula cnidarienne, ce devait être un organisme simple, tandis que d’autres, qui situent son origine dans une forme polype, pensent qu’il devait déjà présenter un plan d’organisation relativement complexe. L’analyse comparée des caractères morpho-anatomiques, d’une part, et l’étude détaillée des modalités de leur mise en place au cours de l’ontogenèse, envisagée aux niveaux structural et génétique, d’autre part, réalisées sur un ensemble vaste et diversifié de bilatériens, apportent une série d’arguments qui rendent plus probable le second scénario envisagé. L’article que nous présentons et la discussion que nous engageons s’intéressent à la segmentation antéropostérieure du corps : Urbilateria était-il ou non segmenté ?In order to establish the portrait of Urbilateria, the common ancestor of triblastic metazoan, this paper focuses on the antero-posterior segmentation frequently considered as characterising the bilaterian bauplan. The synthesis presented here describes the morphological, anatomical and functional aspects of this organisation. Furthermore it analyses the conditions of its emergence during the ontogenesis of Annelids, Arthropods and Chordates and identifies its genetic bases. The provided data exhibit the unitary character of the segmentation modalities among protostomian and deuterostomian organisms. This process occurs in two phases, involving a posterior proliferative zone after the gastrulation. It shows the similarity of the expression patterns of orthologous genes, the implication of comparable signalisation and regulation pathways. The congruence of the results obtained at both structural and molecular levels reinforce the segmental organisation conception of the common ancestor of Bilaterians

ENSO and interdecadal climate variability over the last century documented by geochemical records of two coral cores from the South West Pacific

The south west Pacific is affected by climatic phenomena such as ENSO (El Ni&#241;o Southern Oscillation) or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Near-monthly resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca, U/Ca and <span style=&quot;font-family: &apos;Symbol, Times New Roman, Times&apos;; font-size: 16px;&quot;>&delta;</span>¹⁸Oc were made on corals taken from New Caledonia and Wallis Island. These geochemical variations could be linked to SST (sea surface temperature) and SSS (sea surface salinity) variations over the last two decades, itselves dependent on ENSO occurrences. On the other hand, near-half-yearly resolution over the last century smoothes seasonal and interannual climate signals, but emphasizes low frequency climate variability

Stillbirth classification in population-based data and role of fetal growth restriction: the example of RECODE.

International audienceBACKGROUND: Stillbirth classifications use various strategies to synthesise information associated with fetal demise with the aim of identifying key causes for the death. RECODE is a hierarchical classification of death-related conditions, which grants a major place to fetal growth restriction (FGR). Our objective was to explore how placement of FGR in the hierarchy affected results from the classification. METHODS: In the Rhone-Alpes region, all stillbirths were recorded in a local registry from 2000 to 2010 in three districts (N = 969). Small for gestational age (SGA) was defined as a birthweight below the 10th percentile. We applied RECODE and then modified the hierarchy, including FGR as the penultimate category (RECODE-R). RESULTS: 49.0% of stillbirths were SGA. From RECODE to RECODE-R, stillbirths attributable to FGR decreased from 38% to 14%, in favour of other related conditions. Nearly half of SGA stillbirths (49%) were reclassified. There was a non-significant tendency toward moderate SGA, singletons and full-term stillbirths to older mothers being reclassified. CONCLUSIONS: The position of FGR in hierarchical stillbirth classification has a major impact on the first condition associated with stillbirth. RECODE-R calls less attention to monitoring SGA fetuses but illustrates the diversity of death-related conditions for small fetuses

Chemometric perspectives on plankton community responses to natural iron fertilisation over and downstream of the Kerguelen Plateau in the Southern Ocean

International audienceWe examined phytoplankton community responses to natural iron fertilisation at 32 sites over and downstream from the Kerguelen Plateau in the Southern Ocean during the austral spring bloom in October–November 2011. The community structure was estimated from chemical and isotopic measurements (particulate organic carbon – POC; 13C-POC; particulate nitrogen – PN; 15N-PN; and biogenic silica – BSi) on size-fractionated samples from surface waters (300, 210, 50, 20, 5, and 1 μm fractions). Higher values of 13C-POC (vs. co-located 13C values for dissolved inorganic carbon – DIC) were taken as indicative of faster growth rates and higher values of 15N-PN (vs. co-located 15N-NO3 source values) as indicative of greater nitrate use (rather than ammonium use, i.e. higher f ratios).Community responses varied in relation to both regional circulation and the advance of the bloom. Iron-fertilised waters over the plateau developed dominance by very large diatoms (50–210 μm) with high BSi / POC ratios, high growth rates, and significant ammonium recycling (lower f ratios) as biomass built up. In contrast, downstream polar frontal waters with a similar or higher iron supply were dominated by smaller diatoms (20–50 μm) and exhibited greater ammonium recycling. Stations in a deep-water bathymetrically trapped recirculation south of the polar front with lower iron levels showed the large-cell dominance observed on the plateau but much less biomass. Comparison of these communities to surface water nitrate (and silicate) depletions as a proxy for export shows that the low-biomass recirculation feature had exported similar amounts of nitrogen to the high-biomass blooms over the plateau and north of the polar front. This suggests that early spring trophodynamic and export responses differed between regions with persistent low levels vs. intermittent high levels of iron fertilisation

The relative importance of phytoplankton aggregates and zooplankton fecal pellets to carbon export: insights from free-drifting sediment trap deployments in naturally iron-fertilised waters near the Kerguelen Plateau

The first KErguelen Ocean and Plateau compared Study (KEOPS1), conducted in the naturally iron-fertilised Kerguelen bloom, demonstrated that fecal material was the main pathway for exporting carbon to the deep ocean during summer (January–February 2005), suggesting a limited role of direct export via phytodetrital aggregates. The KEOPS2 project reinvestigated this issue during the spring bloom initiation (October–November 2011), when zooplankton communities may exert limited grazing pressure, and further explored the link between carbon flux, export efficiency and dominant sinking particles depending upon surface plankton community structure. Sinking particles were collected in polyacrylamide gel-filled and standard free-drifting sediment traps (PPS3/3), deployed at six stations between 100 and 400 m, to examine flux composition, particle origin and their size distributions. Results revealed an important contribution of phytodetrital aggregates (49+/-10 and 45+/-22% of the total number and volume of particles respectively, all stations and depths averaged). This high contribution dropped when converted to carbon content (30+/-16% of total carbon, all stations and depths averaged), with cylindrical fecal pellets then representing the dominant fraction (56+/-19 %). At 100 and 200m depth, iron- and biomass-enriched sites exhibited the highest carbon fluxes (maxima of 180 and 84+/- 27 mgCm-2 d-1, based on gel and PPS3/3 trap collection respectively), especially where large fecal pellets dominated over phytodetrital aggregates. Below these depths, carbon fluxes decreased (48+/-21%decrease on average between 200 and 400 m), and mixed aggregates composed of phytodetritus and fecal matter dominated, suggesting an important role played by physical aggregation in deep carbon export. Export efficiencies determined from gels, PPS3/3 traps and 234Th disequilibria (200m carbon flux/net primary productivity) were negatively correlated to net primary productivity with observed decreases from ~0.2 at low-iron sites to ~0.02 at high-iron sites. Varying phytoplankton communities and grazing pressure appear to explain this negative relationship. Our work emphasises the need to consider detailed plankton communities to accurately identify the controls on carbon export efficiency, which appear to include small spatio-temporal variations in ecosystem structure

Diagnostic accuracy of blood B-cell subset profiling and autoimmunity markers in Sjögren's syndrome.

International audienceThe aims of this study were to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of blood B-cell subset profiling and immune-system activation marker assays in primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) and to assess whether adding these tools to the current laboratory item would improve the American-European Consensus Group (AECG) criteria. METHODS: In a single-center cohort of patients with suspected pSS, we tested the diagnostic performance of anti-SSA, antinuclear antibody (ANA), rheumatoid factor (RF), gammaglobulins, IgG titers, and B-cell ratio defined as (Bm2 + Bm2')/(eBm5 + Bm5), determined using flow cytometry. The reference standard was a clinical diagnosis of pSS established by a panel of experts. RESULTS: Of 181 patients included in the study, 77 had pSS. By logistic regression analysis, only ANA ≥1:640 (sensitivity, 70.4%; specificity 83.2%) and B-cell ratio ≥5 (sensitivity, 52.1%; specificity, 83.2%) showed independent associations with pSS of similar strength. In anti-SSA-negative patients, presence of either of these two criteria had 71.0% sensitivity but only 67.3% specificity for pSS; whereas combining both criteria had 96.2% specificity but only 12.9% sensitivity. Adding either of these two criteria to the AECG criteria set increased sensitivity from 83.1% to 90.9% but decreased specificity from 97.1% to 85.6%, whereas adding both criteria in combination did not substantially modify the diagnostic performance of the criteria set. The adjunction of RF + ANA ≥1:320, as proposed in the new American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria, did not improve the diagnostic value of anti-SSA. CONCLUSIONS: Blood B-cell subset profiling is a simple test that has good diagnostic properties for pSS. However, adding this test, with or without ANA positivity, does not improve current classification criteria